ACUS11 KWNS 240024
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 240023=20
ARZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-240200-

Mesoscale Discussion 1286
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0723 PM CDT Tue Jun 23 2026

Areas affected...portions of the ArkLaTex

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 384...

Valid 240023Z - 240200Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 384
continues.

SUMMARY...The severe risk will gradually diminish over the next
couple of hours, but isolated damaging/severe wind gusts remain
possible in the meantime. Downstream watch issuance is not
anticipated.

DISCUSSION...An organized convective cluster remains ongoing across
the ArkLaTex downstream of a mid-level MCV as of 0020 UTC. MUCAPE of
2000-3000+ J/kg, modest effective shear of 20-30 kts, and continued
cold pool forcing should allow this cluster to continue to progress east-southeastward over the next several hours along the cool side
of a surface cold front currently analyzed from northeast Texas
southeastward into southern Louisiana. Gradual nocturnal low-level cooling/stabilization will yield a diminishing severe risk with time
as thunderstorms become elevated, but isolated damaging/severe wind
gusts remain possible over the next 1-2 hours while thunderstorms
remain surface based. Downstream watch issuance is not anticipated
at this time, but trends will continue to be monitored.

..Chalmers/Smith.. 06/24/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!5KAZIIFlcn5I9Mr_jWdjHbJ3oXkVSLQZaXBwU9LlOxhuJST9-RrozLxPqvc7hdnsHRVFiUYcz= n7e7zTtrS82v5zBeqw$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...SHV...FWD...

LAT...LON 31929366 31959411 32409489 32839534 33109548 33319545
33679520 33919495 34049472 34039441 33909387 33509325
33099294 32689287 32299306 31989357 31929366=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH


=3D =3D =3D
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