ACUS11 KWNS 240406
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 240405=20
KSZ000-NEZ000-COZ000-240500-

Mesoscale Discussion 1288
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1105 PM CDT Tue Jun 23 2026

Areas affected...portions of far southwestern Nebraska into western
Kansas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 240405Z - 240500Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...The severe threat may increase through the late evening,
with severe wind/hail becoming more widespread through tonight east
of Severe Thunderstorm Watch 385. A WW issuance may be needed
pending favorable trends in storm intensification.

DISCUSSION...Multicells/transient supercells have developed along
the CO/NE border, at the terminus of an intensifying low-level jet.
These storms are poised to track southeastward amid 2500+ J/kg
MUCAPE and 60 kts of effective bulk shear. As such, any storms that
can become sustained may pose a severe hail threat, a few stones of
which could exceed 2 inches in diameter. Isolated to potentially
scattered severe gusts are also possible, especially if an MCS
begins to materialize sooner than expected. If storms continue to
increase in coverage and intensity, a Severe Thunderstorm Watch may
be needed.

..Squitieri/Smith.. 06/24/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!7v0tC7A9jFbhCdKZsISi2x_6wGoXCbB_HEKTCnvU5Rpd7RliuD8Cq3d7-21oEQ4dYkvN70aIZ= 6bYLpKLEAW3HBrvdP8$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LBF...DDC...GLD...BOU...CYS...

LAT...LON 40380272 40460277 40740284 41010272 41220249 41280198
41200154 39810036 38650023 37870030 37400060 37160132
37240161 38330201 39550202 40380272=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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