ACUS11 KWNS 241720
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 241720=20
FLZ000-241945-

Mesoscale Discussion 1291
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1220 PM CDT Wed Jun 24 2026

Areas affected...Florida Peninsula

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 241720Z - 241945Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated strong wind gusts will be possible through the
afternoon across the central and southern Florida Peninsula.

DISCUSSION...Ample heating of a very moist airmass through early
afternoon is resulting in moderate to strong instability across the
FL Peninsula. Scattered thunderstorms have already developed, mainly
along Atlantic coast sea breezes. Additional thunderstorm
development is likely through the afternoon. Vertical shear will
remain weak, limiting a greater organized severe risk. However,
given MLCAPE near 2500 J/kg and steep low-level lapse rates with the
high PW environment, strong outflow/downburst winds will be
possible. Additionally, if sufficient clustering can occur, this
would increase the risk for forward propagation and locally damaging
wind potential. Overall severe risk is expected to remain limited
and a watch is not expected at this time.

..Leitman/Guyer.. 06/24/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!9sad2baJ6Ta9SWMZd3Q6zBmnBCRNM-5da1H6JnATyuJArEPqqck7yyCJPQ6Yc-9aT7s3akAaf= mSNGy-ikZ00swNUuQQ$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...TBW...JAX...

LAT...LON 29108082 27568014 26487988 25798005 25658058 25828118
26258164 27378200 28328228 28788237 29118210 29238133
29108082=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH


=3D =3D =3D
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