ACUS11 KWNS 241913
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 241912=20
UTZ000-NVZ000-242115-

Mesoscale Discussion 1294
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0212 PM CDT Wed Jun 24 2026

Areas affected...Portions of the Great Basin

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 241912Z - 242115Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms developing across the eastern Great Basin
region will pose a risk for severe downburst winds. Watch issuance
is possible for portions of the region as thunderstorm coverage
increases through late afternoon.

DISCUSSION...Latest GOES imagery shows steady deepening of cumulus
across eastern NV into UT as temperatures quickly warm into the low
90s. An 18 UTC RAOB from SLC sampled some lingering inhibition, but
modifying the sounding based on regional surface observations
suggests that inhibition should largely be removed as temperatures
warm into the mid 90s. Wildfire smoke and high-level cirrus across
central and eastern UT may mute diurnal warming to some degree, but
portions of eastern NV/northwest UT will likely reach these
temperatures within the next hour or so. As this occurs,
thunderstorm initiation will become more probable, especially as
ascent ahead of an approaching upper disturbance overspreads the
region. Dry boundary-layer conditions observed in the sounding
appear to be fairly widespread based on 45-50 F dewpoint depressions region-wide. These low-level thermodynamic profiles are favorable
for accelerating downdrafts capable of producing strong to severe
wind gusts, possibly as high as 75 mph (especially if more coherent,
loosely organized clusters or bands can become established as hinted
by some CAM solutions). Trends will continue to be monitored, and
watch issuance may be needed as thunderstorm coverage begins to
increase.

..Moore/Guyer.. 06/24/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!_PgtzGqyOxkKpYS38HaRirD9G5f53d4lTqZwJnTNx2WhqZJoOk6IcVQe-hnO0WPWKY6PNmZGy= g7dyifXlntFAtlFv7M$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...SLC...VEF...LKN...

LAT...LON 38441564 39331575 39781560 41411408 41721331 41771274
41661206 41361171 40741143 40291132 39951131 39601138
39131156 38591213 38271280 38011349 37951394 37831494
38001526 38441564=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH


=3D =3D =3D
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