ACUS11 KWNS 242215
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 242214=20
ARZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-242345-

Mesoscale Discussion 1296
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0514 PM CDT Wed Jun 24 2026

Areas affected...portions of far southern Oklahoma into far northern Texas...extreme southwestern Arkansas and extreme northwestern
Louisiana

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 242214Z - 242345Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...An isolated severe wind/hail risk exists along a
baroclinic boundary under the condition that storms can initiate and
organize.

DISCUSSION...A quasi-stationary baroclinic boundary currently
resides just north of the Red River along much of far southern OK.
Despite weak synoptic forcing for ascent, extreme buoyancy (4000+
J/kg MLCAPE) and minimal MLCINH with 40+ kts of effective bulk shear
is coinciding with the boundary per 21Z mesoanalysis. As such, any
storm that manages to develop and sustain itself will have the
potential to produce severe wind/hail or perhaps a tornado. A storm
has recently initiated over Atoka County, OK, suggesting that
surface-based heating is strong enough to support additional
isolated attempts at convective initiation along this boundary over
the next several hours. The severe threat should remain isolated
given overall lack of deep-layer ascent.

..Squitieri/Mosier.. 06/24/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!9QaCDqxyJ_Cv1X5JWZcNgMq8oYRCEjpjxgcfoIKi01hrhmx7RSLs1B3HMEix-lnYhW-kG33Rx= Zyv0U4oXmdeeJk96io$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...LUB...

LAT...LON 34580004 34719900 34679652 34399496 33879370 33129284
32659274 32469311 32619394 33059519 33369674 33649842
33799915 33949963 34119997 34580004=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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