ACUS11 KWNS 242306
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 242306=20
UTZ000-NVZ000-250030-

Mesoscale Discussion 1299
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0606 PM CDT Wed Jun 24 2026

Areas affected...portions of the Great Basin

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 242306Z - 250030Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Scattered, high-based convection continues to pose a risk
for sporadic damaging/severe wind gusts. Watch issuance remains
uncertain.

DISCUSSION...Widely scattered to scattered, high-based thunderstorms
have developed from eastern Nevada into central Utah ahead of an
approaching mid-level shortwave trough as of late afternoon. A deep,
well-mixed boundary layer and inverted-v thermodynamic profiles, as
sampled by the 18 UTC SLC observed sounding, are favoring efficient
evaporative cooling and downdraft accelerations, with several
reports of 60+ mph wind gusts already received. Over the next 1-2
hours, ongoing convection south of the greater Salt Lake City area
may spread northward with a continued threat for occasional
damaging/severe wind gusts. Additionally, recent high-res guidance
suggests that some cold pool consolidation may occur with the more
scattered convection noted across eastern Nevada, with the resultant loosely-organized cluster/band then developing east-southeastward.
Should this scenario unfold, a locally greater risk for severe wind
gusts may evolve across portions of western Utah in association with
this convection. Despite this potential, relatively weak flow
sampled below 5-6 km AGL by the MTX/LRX VAD profiles may preclude a
greater coverage of severe wind gusts. This continues to lend
uncertainty to the need for a Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

..Chalmers/Mosier.. 06/24/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!7Dn_P0KnQreN3nKHxChlGoP5Uc90MLb2OttYcmu55rRvTQqqNbqLH-rCyWSKxdlcw7d5lFJJc= KonrJjZX06W_3Wzq7Y$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...SLC...VEF...LKN...

LAT...LON 38771590 39601528 40681404 41151310 41281219 41241166
40901117 40251089 39781086 39371092 39001138 38551232
38131402 38011508 38121565 38251595 38771590=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH


=3D =3D =3D
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