ACUS11 KWNS 242335
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 242334=20
INZ000-250100-

Mesoscale Discussion 1300
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0634 PM CDT Wed Jun 24 2026

Areas affected...portions of northwestern Indiana

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 242334Z - 250100Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...A downstream Severe Thunderstorm Watch appears unlikely at
this time, but trends will continue to be monitored.

DISCUSSION...Latest surface analysis depicts a surface
temperature/thermal gradient in place across portions of northern
Indiana. Despite dense cloud cover, low-level warm, moist air
advection has resulted in temperatures and dewpoints rising into the
mid-70s and low-60s F, respectively, south of this boundary. While
latest objective analysis indicates that buoyancy remains negligible
(less than 250 J/kg MLCAPE) across this area, recent high-res
guidance suggests that weak destabilization may occur south of this
surface boundary over the next 1-2 hours preceding the arrival of
convection currently ongoing across northern/northeastern Illinois.
The overall expectation is for convection to weaken as it
approaches/enters northwestern Indiana owing to the aforementioned
weaker buoyancy and waning diurnal cycle. Thus, downstream watch
issuance appears unlikely at this time. Trends will continue to be
monitored, however, as effective shear of 35-40+ kts may allow a
low-end severe risk to persist into northwestern Indiana.

..Chalmers/Mosier.. 06/24/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!9kCdjvUkyyZuEfhmdXWxWoynX7_vEkT7mXdwi12Cdo4pOA_QLhE7CJuhlPestP3W1tU1w4V89= kX9y5-IJSiIRoOdkAI$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...IWX...IND...LOT...

LAT...LON 41088744 41408743 41538714 41528697 41478671 41358647
41178627 40888615 40538617 40378627 40268645 40208697
40318740 40498751 41088744=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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