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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1302

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/107 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Thu Jun 25 00:47:41 2026
    ACUS11 KWNS 250047
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 250047=20
    COZ000-NEZ000-WYZ000-250145-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1302
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0747 PM CDT Wed Jun 24 2026

    Areas affected...portions of southeastern Wyoming into northeastern
    Colorado and western Nebraska Panhandle

    Concerning...Tornado Watch 389...

    Valid 250047Z - 250145Z

    The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 389 continues.

    SUMMARY...Severe hail and wind remain a concern with the more robust
    storms across portions of the central High Plains. An isolated
    tornado risk will also continue for at least a few more hours.

    DISCUSSION...Multiple supercells have oscillated in intensity across
    portions of southeastern WY into northeastern CO and western NE
    Panhandle, some of which have produced severe hail/gusts.
    Furthermore, at least one brief tornado reported in northeastern CO
    over the past hour. These storms are benefiting from a favorable
    kinematic and thermodynamic ambient environment, characterized by
    2500-3500 J/kg MLCAPE and up to 60 kts of effective bulk shear per
    00Z mesoanalysis. Storms closest to an effective baroclinic boundary
    also have the advantage of ingesting locally higher effective SRH,
    ranging from 200-500 m2/s2. The current thinking is that storms will
    continue to pulse in intensity through the remainder of daylight
    hours, producing severe wind and hail at their peak moments of intensity/organization. Additionally, isolated tornadoes will remain
    possible with mature supercells within the baroclinic zone.

    ..Squitieri.. 06/25/2026

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!__jsFUzYwXXWfEANCtcGbzKY9Bm1n5V-oGE82LNUwftH5QVYaSuOBaOYu__L-UtdaYHlPxbR5= 1EZw7rEWuS9nqqcNvk$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...GLD...BOU...CYS...

    LAT...LON 39560298 39490377 39530438 39670489 39770494 42140570
    42670532 42870450 42620376 42100318 41660285 41090266
    40470268 40010274 39560298=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-110 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN


    =3D =3D =3D
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    * Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107)