ACUS11 KWNS 250159
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 250158=20
KSZ000-NEZ000-COZ000-250300-

Mesoscale Discussion 1304
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0858 PM CDT Wed Jun 24 2026

Areas affected...portions of extreme northeastern Colorado into
southwestern Nebraska and far northwestern Kansas

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 390...

Valid 250158Z - 250300Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 390
continues.

SUMMARY...Severe wind and hail may continue with ongoing supercells.
There is some indication of upscale growth into an MCS. Should this
occur, then severe winds will become the predominant threat.

DISCUSSION...MRMS mosaic radar data depicts multiple supercells
progressing southward across western/central NE. Some of these
storms have a history of severe wind and hail, with the latest
mosaic MRMS MESH data showing multiple storms potentially producing
2+ inch diameter hail. Based on the last few runs of the HRRR and
WoFS ensemble guidance, it appears that supercells will persist for
at least a few more hours, accompanied by both severe hail and
gusts. However, as also shown by the HRRR/WoFS, cold pool mergers
with ongoing supercells may encourage upscale growth into an MCS in
a few hours, with severe gusts becoming the main threat. Regardless
of storm morphology and evolution, the 00Z mesoanalysis shows 1500+
J/kg MLCAPE and 50+ kts of effective bulk shear preceding the
ongoing storms, so the severe wind and hail should persist in some
form through the evening hours.

..Squitieri.. 06/25/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!7zCRhRkNJXxyu90dPm5v9xm8bvNrf4Eq4xwgY1RYa6CuAVwIXKAqfr7VkbTJXcnKTwGXvN6Te= lCFUpev-xU2ju4j_v8$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...GLD...BOU...

LAT...LON 41240259 41480166 41520076 41379990 41079914 40569879
40009876 39759894 39589940 39590003 39770079 39970143
40240206 40500242 40820258 41240259=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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