ACUS11 KWNS 250358
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 250357=20
TXZ000-NMZ000-250500-

Mesoscale Discussion 1305
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1057 PM CDT Wed Jun 24 2026

Areas affected...portions of the Texas Panhandle and South Plains

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 250357Z - 250500Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...A few instances of severe hail and wind may occur with
storms progressing out of east-central NM into the TX South Plains
over the next few hours. However, the severe threat should remain
isolated, with a downstream WW issuance not expected.

DISCUSSION...Multicellular outflow dominant storms have exited
Severe Thunderstorm Watch 388 with a recent history of producing
measured severe gusts. These storms are overspreading a relatively
dry boundary layer, approximated by the evaluation of both the AMA
and MAF 00Z observed soundings. Furthermore, the 03Z mesoanalysis
depicts 1000-1500 J/kg DCAPE preceding the storms, suggesting that
ample evaporative cooling potential exists for severe gusts,
especially where cold-pool mergers occur. However, boundary layer
cooling should temper both the spatial and temporal extent of the
severe threat, with 50+ kt gusts and 1+ inch diameter hail expected
to remain isolated overall.

..Squitieri/Mosier.. 06/25/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!-DPfUzjyA4yD3CSc9aHqz6B11MwnPWtyKypG05zNmfN993fPjyYJFhvFX9b5Yu7faedVtXbIy= K_HFl-U8FtcRIXUDxE$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...ABQ...

LAT...LON 36080197 35790112 35490094 34150132 33770153 33670200
33740242 34040299 34610315 35230317 35720307 36000252
36080197=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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