• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1306

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/107 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Thu Jun 25 04:27:14 2026
    ACUS11 KWNS 250427
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 250426=20
    NEZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-250530-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1306
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1126 PM CDT Wed Jun 24 2026

    Areas affected...portions of northeastern Colorado into southwestern
    Nebraska and far northwestern Kansas

    Concerning...Tornado and Severe Thunderstorm Watches 389...390...

    Valid 250426Z - 250530Z

    The severe weather threat for Tornado and Severe Thunderstorm
    Watches 389, 390 continues.

    SUMMARY...The severe wind/hail threat will continue for several more
    hours. Large hail should be expected with supercells, and severe
    gusts will be most likely with a possible developing MCS in
    northeastern CO.

    DISCUSSION...Multiple supercells continue to track southeast across northeastern CO into southwestern NE and far northwestern KS, some
    with a history of strong to severe gusts and up to golfball sized
    hail. While nocturnal cooling is ongoing, 7-8 C/km mid-level lapse
    rates ahead of the storms are contributing to nearly 2000 J/kg of
    MUCAPE, amid 40-60 kts of effective bulk shear, which is adequate in
    supporting a continued severe wind/hail threat. Severe hail will be
    most likely with established storm cores in longer lived supercells.
    Meanwhile severe gusts will occur with merging supercells,
    particularly with the cluster extending from Arapahoe to Yuma
    County, CO. If this MCS can further intensify, a more concentrated
    severe gust threat may manifest, including the possibility of gusts
    exceeding 75 mph.

    ..Squitieri.. 06/25/2026

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!8C69pL_fRgohaNb6fq9GhEvyvLFqHgtJ4IHhlyGgKPWmSG-hvfSC6jLqjXOz0QIL5IK1jiS4o= kmLWrgFLGkDmlPExUY$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...DDC...GLD...PUB...BOU...

    LAT...LON 39600516 40180355 40660123 40789936 40589890 40099861
    39809877 39499933 39140000 38820109 38720217 38740319
    38990432 39190494 39600516=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...75-90 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


    =3D =3D =3D
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