ACUS11 KWNS 251739
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 251738=20
MOZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-252015-

Mesoscale Discussion 1309
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1238 PM CDT Thu Jun 25 2026

Areas affected...south-central and southeast Kansas...north-central
and northeast Oklahoma...and southwest Missouri

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 251738Z - 252015Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...The threat for severe storms capable of all hazards is
expected to increase across the discussion area this afternoon.
Convective trends are being monitored for a possible watch.

DISCUSSION...As of 1730Z, mosaic radar data indicated a long-lived,=20
bowing line segment west of Wichita with additional more cellular
storms extending into north-central OK, east of Ponca City. That
activity is likely still slightly elevated above a stable,
near-surface inversion with the primary forcing mechanism being a
zone of warm thermal and moisture advection occurring along a 30 kt
low-level jet. Visible satellite indicates breaks in the cirrus
cloud canopy across northern OK, which should allow for pockets of
stronger heating to occur. And while mid-level lapse rates are not
particularly steep, the presence of a very moist boundary layer will
combine with the increased insolation to support MLCAPE of 1500-3000
J/kg with weakening MLCIN for surface-based parcels.

The destabilization process coupled with the persistent warm
advection is expected to promote the gradual intensification of the
ongoing storms this afternoon with additional storm development
possible along the synoptic front and/or any lingering
outflow/differential heating boundaries. The combination of 40-45 kt
westerly mid-level flow attending a subtle short-wave trough over
central KS and the low-level jet mentioned above is resulting in a
favorable kinematic environment for severe storms with the KVNX
currently sampling 0-6-km shear and 0-1-km SRH of 54 kt and 200+
m2/s2, respectively.

Given the above considerations, the potential for all severe-weather
hazards is expected to increase this afternoon with any storms that
can become rooted within the boundary layer. The greatest potential
for a strong tornado or two will exist with supercell storm modes
within this convective regime.

Convective trends are being monitored for signs that storms are
becoming surface-based, which would necessitate strong consideration
for a watch.

..Mead.. 06/25/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!_niMnO0-iIMr2MTZ2A0X8zbapq17zInn_zXfkKi89ZvSUX8PiKp58oyedGJcZ9z5hgEhTptZR= gc1Vaxfzah1s22csWk$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...SGF...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...

LAT...LON 37609778 37729729 38079580 37989469 37659436 37099410
36639424 36579468 36479516 36549655 37039780 37609778=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-125 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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