ACUS11 KWNS 251911
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 251910=20
PAZ000-OHZ000-INZ000-252115-

Mesoscale Discussion 1312
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0210 PM CDT Thu Jun 25 2026

Areas affected...Eastern Indiana into Ohio and far western
Pennsylvania

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 251910Z - 252115Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms developing along and ahead of a diffuse cold
front may pose a damaging wind and large hail threat through the
afternoon and early evening hours. Watch issuance may be needed to
address this concern.

DISCUSSION...The early stages of convective development are well
underway across eastern IN into northwest OH as destabilization
continues along and ahead of a diffuse cold front. Additionally,
growing cumulus is noted in GOES visible imagery across central OH
where temperatures are warming into the low 80s. Continued
thunderstorm development is expected through late afternoon as the
front continues to migrate east/southeast and ascent ahead of an
approaching upper wave/upper jet streak. Recent HRRR solutions
appear to be capturing these trends well, and forecast sounding from
recent runs depict fairly marginal mid-level lapse rates, but
sufficient buoyancy profiles to utilize the strong deep-layer shear
in place across the region. Consequently, a few supercells and/or
organized convective bands appear possible through early evening as
this activity spreads east across OH and eventually into far western
PA. While the modest thermodynamic environment may modulate overall
storm intensity, sporadic large hail and severe gusts up to 55-65
mph appear possible. Watch issuance may be needed if the severe
threat becomes sufficiently widespread through the next few hours.

..Moore/Guyer.. 06/25/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!8SIMCjiswAdCj_X6RLaSnyqh0ij0bg9v6berbNA8VyMUWOXeM9IF-5b6acBK336L-oPQKCnt5= kBrGwkzaOcat7g2YDs$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PBZ...RLX...CLE...ILN...IWX...IND...

LAT...LON 40278583 40998437 41578332 41578309 41468267 41448247
41508195 41668141 42098016 41907996 41568000 41108026
40558100 39978196 39668323 39518417 39508480 39548536
39648580 39808594 39968599 40278583=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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