ACUS11 KWNS 252006
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 252006=20
WYZ000-MTZ000-252200-

Mesoscale Discussion 1314
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0306 PM CDT Thu Jun 25 2026

Areas affected...Central Montana

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 252006Z - 252200Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Scattered loosely organized thunderstorms may pose a risk
of sporadic large hail and severe gusts through early evening. Watch
issuance is not expected.

DISCUSSION...Convection has been gradually intensifying within the
higher terrain of central Montana over the past hour as diurnal
heating drives increasing buoyancy and upslope flow/orographic
ascent. This activity is also largely focused under the upper-level
thermal trough where 500 mb temperatures are as cold as -15 C per
the 18 UTC TFX RAOB. These cold temperatures aloft are supporting a
pocket of somewhat limited buoyancy (MUCAPE of only around 500-1000
J/kg), but even this modest buoyancy profile may be adequate to
allow deeper convection to be influenced by the 25-30 knot mid-level
flow inferred by regional RAOBs with southward extent. This may
support some transient organization of the deeper, more intense
cores with an attendant threat for occasional large hail and severe
gusts through early evening. In general, however, the overall
thermodynamic and kinematic environment appears too limited for a
particularly widespread or prolonged severe threat.

..Moore/Guyer.. 06/25/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!9Lbm0_2zm3LMtY8uyD4obPzPurj1NX5bhL734RelaxiBacD_8qJdgLOkgb0E26jXuCXV0G-tx= RBfDv8CosWdXPKqxvM$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BYZ...RIW...TFX...MSO...

LAT...LON 47881139 47391073 46511032 45741011 45171042 44911091
44861166 45201207 45671265 46421318 46891341 47311344
47671322 47871283 48021209 47881139=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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