ACUS11 KWNS 252024
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 252024=20
COZ000-NMZ000-252300-

Mesoscale Discussion 1315
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0324 PM CDT Thu Jun 25 2026

Areas affected...Central and Southeast Colorado

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 252024Z - 252300Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated to widely scattered severe storms capable of
large hail and severe wind gusts appear possible across the
discussion area this afternoon. Convective trends are being
monitored for a possible Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

DISCUSSION...Over the past couple of hours, regenerative
thunderstorm development has been observed along the CO Front Range
in the vicinity of Colorado Springs with additional deepening
cumulus development noted from along the Sangre De Cristo Mountains
in southeast CO to the Raton Mesa vicinity in far northeast NM.=20

Latest surface observations indicate the presence of a moist,
post-frontal air mass in place to the immediate east with dewpoints
in the 50s and estimated MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg. However,
objective fields indicate some degree of capping in place, which may
tend to keep any storm development confined to the immediate high
terrain, at least in the near term. The exception is along the Raton
Mesa in the vicinity of a surface cold front, where stronger
boundary-layer heating is allowing a deepening cumulus field to
spread east into the High Plains.

Afternoon water vapor imagery indicates the discussion area is on
the southern fringe of better implied forcing for ascent attendant
to a short-wave trough moving into the NE Panhandle. As such, storms
may remain isolated to widely scattered in nature. Current VWPs from
KFTG and KPUX indicate east-northeast low-level winds becoming
westerly at 25-30 kt in the mid levels, resulting in sufficient
vertical shear for rotating storms capable of large hail. The
primary uncertainty is areal coverage of any severe weather threat.
Convective trends are being monitored for signs of a greater
spatiotemporal threat that would necessitate a Severe Thunderstorm
Watch issuance.

..Mead/Guyer.. 06/25/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!_cQ2L2sMGdv_0khwLxWiN6vwS7iCSMut87U-PwMnWdMWnv0Bhy0otl5vCdH55GOz7nZfZtyzm= sK3pTL0pw7SF5lwufM$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PUB...BOU...ABQ...

LAT...LON 38470506 39360519 40170519 40230443 39330338 38540320
38320291 37960238 37570232 37190280 37000341 36920421
37510466 38470506=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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