ACUS11 KWNS 252153
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 252152=20
PAZ000-MDZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-252215-

Mesoscale Discussion 1317
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0452 PM CDT Thu Jun 25 2026

Areas affected...Eastern Ohio and western Pennsylvania

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch needed soon=20

Valid 252152Z - 252215Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

SUMMARY...Widely scattered supercells with isolated wind damage,
large hail and a brief tornado or two will be possible through about
01z. A severe thunderstorm watch is being issued soon.

DISCUSSION...In tandem with a pronounced midlevel trough crossing
the OH Valley, widely scattered thunderstorms have formed in a
moderately unstable and uncapped warm sector from eastern OH into western/central PA. Local VWPs show relatively straight hodographs
with sufficient length for sustained supercells, and buoyancy should
remain sufficient for severe storms for the next few hours where
boundary-layer dewpoints are in the 60s. Any tornado threat will
likely be tied to local terrain influences and/or favorable storm
interactions. Thereafter, cooling surface temperatures and gradual stabilization should begin to lessen the threat. A severe
thunderstorm watch is being coordinated now with local NWS offices
to reflect the severe-storm threat into this evening.

..Thompson/Mosier.. 06/25/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!92M-AbkUoqu-Y9FYQ3aCY9Xu0R_eGsC8X9hjHm0-hD94grH_vDU-X4idOtyDmOCUX5VC5FV6L= XNmQfm6km8W2H_Azw4$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CTP...LWX...PBZ...CLE...

LAT...LON 39597991 39628053 39658109 39728144 39928163 40388178
40858164 41258149 41548050 41517914 41247787 40987765
40617757 40227796 39907869 39597991=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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