ACUS11 KWNS 252205
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 252205=20
ARZ000-OKZ000-252330-

Mesoscale Discussion 1318
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0505 PM CDT Thu Jun 25 2026

Areas affected...Northeastern Oklahoma into northwestern Arkansas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 252205Z - 252330Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...The potential for a few strong to severe gusts and hail
will continue spreading east-southeastward in the near term.

DISCUSSION...Aided by a remnant MCV and midlevel trough moving
across eastern KS, a long-lived cluster of thunderstorms is tracking east-southeastward across northeastern OK this afternoon. Given the well-established cold pool, around 35 kt of 0-6 km shear (per INX
VWP), and a warm/moist PBL immediately downstream, strong to severe
wind gusts and sporadic severe hail will remain possible in the near
term. However, as the cluster of storms becomes increasingly
displaced from the MCV/midlevel trough and related enhancement to
the deep-layer shear (much weaker flow from SRX VWP), a gradual
weakening trend is expected over the next few hours. Therefore, a
downstream watch is not currently expected, though convective trends
are being monitored.

..Weinman/Mosier.. 06/25/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!7C9xE_HhwNxucu4nufLgsHC68ZS-4gnK-glbPr6XSSagGf4fo4-6IpVK-y2Es1Bxbhp_dKL1h= eEJXBZpX1ZP7VF2pUI$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LZK...TSA...

LAT...LON 35439497 35739567 35969578 36289558 36489528 36459454
36289399 35919343 35549346 35229388 35439497=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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