• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1319

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/107 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Thu Jun 25 22:08:17 2026
    ACUS11 KWNS 252208
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 252207=20
    OKZ000-TXZ000-252330-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1319
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0507 PM CDT Thu Jun 25 2026

    Areas affected...portions of the eastern Oklahoma
    Panhandle...northeastern Texas Panhandle...and northwestern Oklahoma

    Concerning...Tornado Watch 392...

    Valid 252207Z - 252330Z

    The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 392 continues.

    SUMMARY...A discrete supercell in the eastern Oklahoma Panhandle
    will pose a risk primarily for large to very large hail and damaging
    wind gusts over the next 1-2 hours. The tornado risk with this storm
    remains more uncertain.

    DISCUSSION...A discrete supercell has intensified along a remnant
    outflow boundary in Beaver County, Oklahoma over the past hour. A
    couple of tornadoes have been reported with this cell, and MRMS and
    other MESH estimates have ranged up to 4+ inches over the past 30-60
    minutes. Given the favorable environment and the potential for this
    cell to remain largely discrete for another hour or two before it
    potentially interacts with convection to the southwest, large to
    very large hail (potentially up to 2+ inches in diameter) and
    damaging wind gusts will remain possible with this supercell.=20

    Bunkers right motion and the recent track of the supercell suggest
    that it may remain along the remnant outflow boundary. In this
    scenario, tornado potential will remain greater given the favorable
    low-level shear along/north of the outflow boundary (100+ 0-500 m
    SRH sampled by the VNX VAD profile). Should this supercell attain
    more of a southeastward track, however, it would encounter a drier,
    more well-mixed boundary layer exists (MLLCLs exceeding 2 km per
    latest objective analysis and the 18z AMA observed sounding), which
    would result in a lower tornado threat.

    ..Chalmers.. 06/25/2026

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!-VqLNK4TuXO4ZpdnrHfr39VYojHx-k1DHiW6EOXQuu2XjNuVsi_RQk3ciCfHhTRdA9nIEt8D9= TD1cL2fcHFPTHyRsKw$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...OUN...AMA...

    LAT...LON 36530036 36680037 36840020 36839993 36779957 36699933
    36569926 36429923 36299942 36309980 36380013 36480036
    36530036=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-125 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


    =3D =3D =3D
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    * Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107)
  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/107 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Thu Jun 25 22:22:47 2026
    ACUS11 KWNS 252222
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 252222 COR
    OKZ000-TXZ000-252330-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1319
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0522 PM CDT Thu Jun 25 2026

    Areas affected...portions of the eastern Oklahoma
    Panhandle...northeastern Texas Panhandle...and northwestern Oklahoma

    Concerning...Tornado Watch 392...

    Valid 252222Z - 252330Z

    CORRECTED FOR GRAPHIC

    The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 392 continues.

    SUMMARY...A discrete supercell in the eastern Oklahoma Panhandle
    will pose a risk primarily for large to very large hail and damaging
    wind gusts over the next 1-2 hours. The tornado risk with this storm
    remains more uncertain.

    DISCUSSION...A discrete supercell has intensified along a remnant
    outflow boundary in Beaver County, Oklahoma over the past hour. A
    couple of tornadoes have been reported with this cell, and MRMS and
    other MESH estimates have ranged up to 4+ inches over the past 30-60
    minutes. Given the favorable environment and the potential for this
    cell to remain largely discrete for another hour or two before it
    potentially interacts with convection to the southwest, large to
    very large hail (potentially up to 2+ inches in diameter) and
    damaging wind gusts will remain possible with this supercell.=20

    Bunkers right motion and the recent track of the supercell suggest
    that it may remain along the remnant outflow boundary. In this
    scenario, tornado potential will remain greater given the favorable
    low-level shear along/north of the outflow boundary (100+ 0-500 m
    SRH sampled by the VNX VAD profile). Should this supercell attain
    more of a southeastward track, however, it would encounter a drier,
    more well-mixed boundary layer exists (MLLCLs exceeding 2 km per
    latest objective analysis and the 18z AMA observed sounding), which
    would result in a lower tornado threat.

    ..Chalmers.. 06/25/2026

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!8mFSjoAm-RK5vPcrvv364RzVDICopG47UlP9HPw9ElJLwLFt_fK8lko7HHEG-KnTpQlQRYJL-= FwPUvMDUiRdHP-2Yh4$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...OUN...AMA...

    LAT...LON 36530036 36680037 36840020 36839993 36779957 36699933
    36569926 36429923 36299942 36309980 36380013 36480036
    36530036=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-125 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


    =3D =3D =3D
    To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

    --- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
    * Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107)