ACUS11 KWNS 252341
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 252340=20
OKZ000-COZ000-TXZ000-NMZ000-260115-

Mesoscale Discussion 1322
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0640 PM CDT Thu Jun 25 2026

Areas affected...portions of southeastern Colorado and northeastern
New Mexico into the western Texas/Oklahoma Panhandles

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 252340Z - 260115Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms will pose a threat
for occasional large hail and damaging wind gusts.

DISCUSSION...Isolated supercells have developed along the high
terrain areas and along a southward-progressing cold front from
southeastern Colorado into northeastern New Mexico. Strong effective
shear (40-50+ kts) and MUCAPE of 500-1500 J/kg will continue to
support supercell structures, with elongated hodographs and
mid-level lapse rates of 8+ C/km supporting a risk for isolated
large hail. Steep low-level lapse rates will also promote a risk for
occasional damaging wind gusts. Increasing low-level stability/CIN
amid low-level cold air advection behind the cold front lends
uncertainty to longevity/persistence of these cells as they move off
of the high terrain. Given this, watch issuance remains uncertain.

..Chalmers/Mosier.. 06/25/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!5ZEmV6Djoq1Fjp0VWO9jCUxIz_Kd83YT790waSNDRlMhqR-fU6RAKNgt05wVedXoXAhlZCID8= 3BERdmxLln32l2vp0E$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AMA...PUB...ABQ...

LAT...LON 37430290 37230274 36880261 36470263 36190278 35990316
35970350 36100386 36280417 36610443 36980459 37400473
37730476 37980478 38190459 38260430 38200374 37900337
37610307 37430290=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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