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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1325

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/107 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Fri Jun 26 00:49:26 2026
    ACUS11 KWNS 260049
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 260048=20
    MOZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-260215-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1325
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0748 PM CDT Thu Jun 25 2026

    Areas affected...portions of southeastern Kansas into northeastern
    Oklahoma and southwestern Missouri

    Concerning...Tornado Watch 392...

    Valid 260048Z - 260215Z

    The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 392 continues.

    SUMMARY...Ongoing thunderstorms may pose a low probability risk for
    large hail, damaging wind gusts, and perhaps a brief tornado.

    DISCUSSION...A cluster of persistent thunderstorms remain ongoing
    across portions of southeastern Kansas as of 0040 UTC, with modest intensification noted with one of these cells over the past 30
    minutes. While greater low-level inhibition exists to the south in
    northeastern Oklahoma (owing to outflow from a prior convective
    cluster), latest objective analysis suggests that a corridor of
    minimal inhibition exists southeastward from this ongoing cluster
    into southwestern Missouri. Despite weak mid-level lapse rates
    (around 6 C/km), strong effective shear of 40+ kts may support a
    risk for isolated large hail with any stronger storm. A brief
    tornado also cannot be ruled out given increasingly
    clockwise-curved, low-level hodographs and effective SRH of 200-300+
    m2/s2. The gradual onset of nocturnal low-level
    cooling/stabilization lends uncertainty to the longevity of this
    potential risk, however.

    ..Chalmers.. 06/26/2026

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!7wPtX_n8-Z3O0NMK1LgkNyYaiiRHYsthnlXSiJ6M9spbDv2bzRGvzNg5L7o61Qaa-vrxQtNtU= IbCXJ8aMXXwyNk3EiQ$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...SGF...TSA...ICT...

    LAT...LON 36669528 36899580 37139610 37319623 37449619 37579600
    37639586 37749532 37669478 37439424 37139402 36859403
    36599453 36599492 36669528=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


    =3D =3D =3D
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    * Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107)