ACUS11 KWNS 260106
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 260105=20
KSZ000-260230-

Mesoscale Discussion 1326
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0805 PM CDT Thu Jun 25 2026

Areas affected...portions of central Kansas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 260105Z - 260230Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorm development is expected over the
next several hours. Isolated large hail may occur with the strongest
storms.

DISCUSSION...Scattered strong to occasionally severe thunderstorms
are expected to develop across central Kansas north of a surface
boundary amid strengthening lower tropospheric warm air advection.
Effective shear of 40+ kts and MUCAPE of 500-1500 J/kg may support
some potential for isolated large hail with the most robust cores,
but a limited thermodynamic environment (mid-level lapse rates
generally 6.5 C/km or less per latest objective analysis) is
expected to limit this threat. Given the expectation for the severe
risk to remain limited in magnitude and coverage, watch issuance
appears unlikely at this time.

A conditionally greater severe risk exists to the south of this
surface boundary across far southern Kansas, but uncertainty remains
regarding whether thunderstorms will develop/persist farther south.

..Chalmers/Mosier.. 06/26/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!6K9kE_XaGMELPtloGQZajU_CEi-Vr1q_qwP7BxqXHxomgGndCuGhocaLME25B4mzsmWzWTBP3= VWW3q-aNQ-TibX-gN0$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC...

LAT...LON 38909569 39109626 39269690 39389754 39409805 39319901
39099970 38710004 38450000 38229970 37989927 37789883
37699827 37679732 37749664 37909593 38189560 38609539
38779546 38909569=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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