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  • DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

    From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Wed Aug 5 17:29:00 2026
    ACUS02 KWNS 051728
    SWODY2
    SPC AC 051726

    Day 2 Convective Outlook
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1226 PM CDT Wed Aug 05 2026

    Valid 061200Z - 071200Z

    ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
    THE NORTHEAST...NORTHWEST NEBRASKA INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL SOUTH
    DAKOTA...NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA INTO SOUTHWEST MISSOURI...

    ...SUMMARY...
    A few strong storms may occur over small parts of the Great Plains,
    and over the Northeast on Thursday with locally strong wind gusts.
    Isolated hail may occur with the Northern Plains/Ozarks activity.

    ...Northwest Oklahoma into southwest Missouri...
    A stalled surface boundary is expected to be draped across southern
    Kansas into central Missouri. The Missouri portion of the boundary
    will likely be reinforced by early day convection/cloud cover.
    Strong heating south of the boundary will allow for locally enhanced
    surface convergence. Storm development is possible along the
    boundary, though it remains uncertain where this development is most
    probable. The presence of the broad trough to the north will support
    sufficient shear that storms would be at least marginally organized.
    Damaging wind gusts will likely be the main threat with this
    activity with marginal hail possible where buoyancy will be locally
    greater in Missouri.

    ...Northeast...
    Areas of modest to strong heating of a very moist (70+ F dewpoints)
    airmass will support 1500-2000 J/kg of MLCAPE by mid-afternoon.
    Deep-layer shear will not be overly strong, but enhanced mid-level
    winds associated with the Great Lakes trough will promote marginally
    organized clusters/linear segments. Isolated wind damage will be
    possible with this activity.

    ...Nebraska/South Dakota...
    A secondary cold front will develop within the northern Plains.
    Moisture return ahead of the boundary will bring upper 50s to low
    60s F dewpoint northward. Mid-level heights are forecast to rise
    slightly during the period. Given effective shear of around 40 kt
    across the boundary, an isolated supercell or two will be possible
    where surface heating can remove MLCIN. Severe winds and marginally
    severe hail would be the expected hazards. The Marginal risk remains
    where confidence in storm development is highest, though a storm or
    two could develop farther northeast. Confidence remains too low for
    an expansion of probabilities.

    ..Wendt.. 08/05/2026

    $$

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    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)
  • From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Thu Aug 6 05:41:34 2026
    ACUS02 KWNS 060541
    SWODY2
    SPC AC 060539

    Day 2 Convective Outlook
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1239 AM CDT Thu Aug 06 2026

    Valid 071200Z - 081200Z

    ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
    THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION...AND PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST...

    ...SUMMARY...
    A few strong to severe storms may occur from Iowa across Wisconsin
    and into Upper Michigan Friday, with areas of strong/damaging wind
    gusts and isolated marginal hail. Other storms may produce locally
    damaging gusts over parts of the Northeast.

    ...IA...southeast MN...WI...Upper MI...
    Moderate northwest flow aloft will move across the northern Plains
    and into the Upper MS Valley, with a cold front extending from
    northwest WI into IA by late afternoon. A moist air mass with 70s F
    dewpoints will exist ahead of the front, contributing to 2000-3000
    J/kg MUCAPE. Supporting the potentially strong instability will be
    relatively cool 500 mb temperatures to around -10 C.

    Storms are likely to form during the afternoon along the front with
    scattered marginal hail or strong wind gusts. Deep-layer shear will
    not be particularly strong. Some potential may develop for an MCS
    over southern areas including IA, and this area will be monitored
    for potential greater wind probabilities.

    ...Northern VA into PA and southern NY...
    Midlevel southwesterlies around 25 kt will exist across the
    northeastern states on Friday, with weak height falls occurring as a
    primary upper trough moves across the Great Lake region. In the low
    levels, west/southwest winds around the Atlantic high will maintain
    a warm/moist air mass, which when heated during the afternoon should
    yield up to 2000 J/kg MUCAPE, especially near the coastal areas
    where dewpoints will be higher.

    Despite lack of any surface boundaries, model consensus is for
    scattered storms to develop from northern VA/MD into central to
    eastern PA and across southern NY during the afternoon. Shear will
    be weak but a few clusters of storms may produce gusty winds.

    ..Jewell.. 08/06/2026

    $$

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    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)
  • From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Thu Aug 6 17:38:18 2026
    ACUS02 KWNS 061735
    SWODY2
    SPC AC 061734

    Day 2 Convective Outlook
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1234 PM CDT Thu Aug 06 2026

    Valid 071200Z - 081200Z

    ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE MID-MISSOURI VALLEY INTO WISCONSIN AND THE UPPER PENINSULA OF
    MICHIGAN...PARTS OF THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC...SOUTH-CENTRAL SOUTH
    DAKOTA INTO NORTH-CENTRAL NEBRASKA...

    ...SUMMARY...
    A few strong to severe storms may occur from the Mid-Missouri Valley
    across Wisconsin and into Upper Michigan Friday, with areas of
    strong/damaging wind gusts and isolated marginal hail. Other storms
    may produce locally damaging gusts over parts of the Northeast and
    hail over parts of central Nebraska/South Dakota.

    ...Mid-Missouri Valley into Wisconsin/Upper Peninsular Michigan...
    A cold front will move into the Upper Midwest during the afternoon.
    Moisture return ahead of the front will maintain upper 60s F farther
    north to low 70s F dewpoints across Iowa/southern Minnesota.
    2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE is expected during the afternoon. The
    approaching mid-level jet will bring stronger mid-level flow and
    30-45 kt of effective shear to the region (stronger shear will
    generally exist with southwestward extent). Initial activity will
    likely be cellular with a tendency to become more linear with time.
    Large hail and damaging winds will be the main concerns. Given the
    stronger buoyancy and shear within Iowa, there is greater potential
    for an MCS to develop with an associated greater risk for wind
    damage. Variance is relatively high within model guidance as to
    where this corridor will exist due in part to the subtle forcing.
    Some guidance suggests a cluster of activity is possible during the
    morning hours. This could intensify as the airmass destabilizes
    during the day. Other guidance suggests limited morning activity
    with storms forming along the front farther east. An increase in
    wind probabilities is possible as confidence increases.

    ...South Dakota/Nebraska...
    At least moderate elevated instability is forecast to develop as a
    low-level jet intensifies within the region late Friday night into
    early Saturday morning. Several CAMs and global guidance suggest
    development will occur. Sufficient mid-level flow on the southern
    flank of the northern Plains trough will allow for organized storms.
    Steep mid-level lapse rates will support a risk for isolated large
    hail.

    ...Northern Mid-Atlantic...
    Though mid-level winds will be slightly weaker than on Thursday, the
    approach of a modest trough will allow for marginally organized
    storms within a very moist environment. Afternoon MLCAPE will near
    2000 J/kg in parts of the Mid-Atlantic. Model consensus continues to
    support the potential for widely scattered to scattered storms
    within this weakly capped airmass. Isolated damaging winds will be
    possible.

    ...Southern Plains into the Ozarks...
    Given the presence of a stalled boundary/outflow, some potential
    exists for storms to develop during the afternoon. Confidence on
    where this boundary will be placed is quite low at this time.
    Deep-layer shear will also be somewhat weak as well. Given these
    factors, severe wind probabilities will be withheld, though isolated
    wind damage could occur.

    ..Wendt.. 08/06/2026

    $$

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    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)
  • From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Fri Aug 7 05:59:10 2026
    ACUS02 KWNS 070558
    SWODY2
    SPC AC 070557

    Day 2 Convective Outlook
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1257 AM CDT Fri Aug 07 2026

    Valid 081200Z - 091200Z

    ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF
    THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE LOWER TO MID
    MISSOURI VALLEY...

    ...SUMMARY...
    Thunderstorms with severe wind gusts will be possible Saturday
    afternoon and evening across parts of the central and northern
    Plains southeastward into the lower to mid Missouri Valley.

    ...Central and Northern Plains/Lower to Mid Missouri Valley...
    At mid-levels, northwesterly flow will be in place on Saturday over
    much of the north-central U.S. as the southern edge of a jet streak
    moves across the northern Plains. At the surface, a cold front will
    advance southward through the Dakotas. To the south of the front, a
    moist axis is forecast to be in place from central South Dakota
    southward into southern Nebraska and eastward into north-central
    Missouri. Moderate to strong instability appears likely to develop
    along the moist axis by afternoon. Large-scale ascent will be
    relatively weak throughout the region which will keep convection
    isolated. The most favorable areas for isolated thunderstorm
    development could be over central and eastern Nebraska, where some
    models focus low-level convergence near a low-level jet in the
    evening. Additional storms could develop along a moisture gradient
    in northern Missouri. NAM forecast soundings from Nebraska into
    southern South Dakota in the late afternoon have 0-6 km shear in the
    35 to 45 knot range with steep low-level lapse rates. This could
    support supercells and organized multicells capable of severe wind
    gusts and hail. Isolated severe gusts could also occur southeastward
    along and near the instability gradient in northern Missouri.

    ..Broyles.. 08/07/2026

    $$

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    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)
  • From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Fri Aug 7 17:33:10 2026
    ACUS02 KWNS 071733
    SWODY2
    SPC AC 071731

    Day 2 Convective Outlook
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1231 PM CDT Fri Aug 07 2026

    Valid 081200Z - 091200Z

    ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN PARTS OF
    THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MID/UPPER MISSISSIPPI
    VALLEY...PARTS OF CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST ARIZONA...PARTS OF THE
    MID-ATLANTIC...

    ...SUMMARY...
    Thunderstorms with severe wind gusts will be possible Saturday
    afternoon and evening across parts of the central and northern
    Plains southeastward into the lower to mid Missouri Valley.
    Additional strong to severe storms are possible in the Mid-Atlantic
    and central/southeast Arizona.

    ...Central Plains into Upper Mississippi Valley...
    A complex forecast scenario continues to be evident on Saturday.
    Models continue to show a focused low-level jet into western
    Nebraska/South Dakota early Saturday morning. Some convection may be
    associated with this feature, though storm coverage is not clear.
    Depending on the evolution of that activity, some risk for severe
    winds and large hail is possible. Storm coverage will largely
    dictate how long early morning activity can persist into the
    afternoon as warming temperatures aloft are expected during the day.
    A strong enough cold pool would have to evolve in order to allow
    convection to propagate southeastward with the low-level jet
    decreasing into the late morning/early afternoon. Convective
    development during the afternoon is far from certain given the
    aforementioned capping that will exist. Forcing for ascent will be
    weak as well. Some guidance does show some thunderstorm development
    along the cold front in parts of the eastern Dakotas/western
    Minnesota. The Marginal has been expanded into these areas to
    account for this potential hail/wind threat.

    By late afternoon/early evening, an intensifying low-level jet will
    be focused within the Mid-Missouri Valley. Storm development will
    become more likely along the warm front as this occurs. However, the
    strongest activity may not form until around 06Z. This reduces
    confidence in how severe the activity will be, particularly in terms
    of severe wind. Again, the Marginal was expanded to the north/east
    to encompass the various model solutions. Large hail would be
    possible even with elevated storms given sufficient shear and steep
    mid-level lapse rates. A greater threat for severe wind gusts may
    still develop, but this is conditional on enough of a cold pool
    developing. Confidence remains rather low.

    ...Mid-Atlantic...
    A modest, low-amplitude shortwave trough will be favorably timed
    with afternoon heating. Widely scattered to scattered storms are
    possible ahead of this feature. Deep-layer shear will not be overly
    strong, but should be sufficient for strong/marginally severe cells
    and clusters. Storm coverage is not certain given the veered,
    deep-layer flow, but most model guidance suggests locally greater
    storm coverage from northern Virginia into eastern Pennsylvania and
    adjacent New Jersey. Wind damage will be the main concern.

    ...Arizona...
    Low 60s F dewpoints are forecast to remain within the lower desert
    areas. Strong heating should promote destabilization during the
    afternoon/early evening. Most CAM guidance suggests that one or more
    clusters will develop on the Mogollon Rim and move west/southwest.
    Severe wind gusts will be possible with this activity.

    ..Wendt.. 08/07/2026

    $$

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    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)
  • From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sat Aug 8 06:02:12 2026
    ACUS02 KWNS 080602
    SWODY2
    SPC AC 080600

    Day 2 Convective Outlook
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0100 AM CDT Sat Aug 08 2026

    Valid 091200Z - 101200Z

    ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
    THE MIDWEST...

    ...SUMMARY...
    Thunderstorms with severe wind gusts will be possible Sunday
    afternoon and evening from parts of the northern Plains
    east-southeastward into the southern Great Lakes. Severe gusts will
    also be possible in parts of the southern Appalachians, Maine and
    southeast Arizona.

    ...Northern Plains/Mid To Upper Mississippi Valley/Southern Great
    Lakes...
    Mid-level flow will be west-northwesterly on Sunday from the
    northern Plains into the Great Lakes. At the surface, a moist and
    unstable airmass will be in place from South Dakota eastward into
    the southern Great Lakes. Although moderate instability is forecast
    to develop over much of this corridor by afternoon, large-scale
    ascent will remain relatively weak. For that reason, thunderstorm
    development will confined to areas where low-level convergence
    becomes maximized. Some solutions show an east-to-west axis of
    strong low-level convergence from Iowa into northern Indiana,
    suggesting this could be a favored area for thunderstorm development
    in the afternoon and evening.

    Forecast soundings near this axis in the late afternoon have surface
    dewpoints in the 70s with moderate to strong instability. 0-6 km
    shear is forecast to be in the 35 to 45 knot range with a
    substantial amount of low-level directional shear. This should
    support a severe threat with supercells and short intense line
    segments. Severe wind gusts will be the primary threat.

    Further west into parts of the northern Plains, a subtle shortwave
    trough is forecast to move into South Dakota during the day. A
    post-frontal airmass will be in place ahead of the shortwave with
    surface dewpoints in the 60s to near 70 F. This will contribute to
    moderate instability by afternoon. Thunderstorms that develop near
    the axis of instability will have potential for isolated severe
    gusts during the late afternoon and early evening.

    ...Maine...
    A mid-level shortwave trough is forecast to move across the Great
    Lakes on Sunday, with west-southwesterly flow located over the
    Northeast. Ahead of the system, a cold front is forecast to move
    eastward across New England. As surface temperatures warm during the
    day, thunderstorm development is expected to take place near the
    front in the higher terrain across parts of western Maine. These
    storms are forecast to move quickly eastward across central and
    eastern Maine during the afternoon. Moderate instability, steep low
    lapse rates and sufficient deep-layer shear will likely support an
    isolated wind-damage threat.

    ...Southern Appalachians...
    Moderate instability will develop on Sunday across much of the
    southern Appalachians, where surface dewpoints will be in the upper
    60s to mid 70s F. As surface temperatures warm during the day,
    scattered thunderstorms will develop in the higher terrain. The
    moderate instability, along with precipitable water values in the
    1.70 to 1.85 inch range, will support a potential for isolated
    severe wet downbursts as instability becomes maximized in the late
    afternoon.

    ...Southeast Arizona...
    Surface dewpoints across southern Arizona will be in the upper 50s
    to near 60 F on Sunday. As surface temperatures warm during the day,
    moderate instability will develop over much of southern Arizona.
    Thunderstorms are expected to form in the higher terrain of eastern
    Arizona, with the storms moving west-southwestward into the unstable
    air during the late afternoon and early evening. Steep low-level
    lapse rates and large surface temperature-dewpoint spreads will
    support an isolated wind-damage threat.

    ..Broyles.. 08/08/2026

    $$

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    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)
  • From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sat Aug 8 06:32:20 2026
    ACUS02 KWNS 080632
    SWODY2
    SPC AC 080630

    Day 2 Convective Outlook CORR 1
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0130 AM CDT Sat Aug 08 2026

    Valid 091200Z - 101200Z

    ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
    THE MIDWEST...

    CORRECTED FOR THUNDERLINE

    ...SUMMARY...
    Thunderstorms with severe wind gusts will be possible Sunday
    afternoon and evening from parts of the northern Plains
    east-southeastward into the southern Great Lakes. Severe gusts will
    also be possible in parts of the southern Appalachians, Maine and
    southeast Arizona.

    ...Northern Plains/Mid To Upper Mississippi Valley/Southern Great
    Lakes...
    Mid-level flow will be west-northwesterly on Sunday from the
    northern Plains into the Great Lakes. At the surface, a moist and
    unstable airmass will be in place from South Dakota eastward into
    the southern Great Lakes. Although moderate instability is forecast
    to develop over much of this corridor by afternoon, large-scale
    ascent will remain relatively weak. For that reason, thunderstorm
    development will confined to areas where low-level convergence
    becomes maximized. Some solutions show an east-to-west axis of
    strong low-level convergence from Iowa into northern Indiana,
    suggesting this could be a favored area for thunderstorm development
    in the afternoon and evening.

    Forecast soundings near this axis in the late afternoon have surface
    dewpoints in the 70s with moderate to strong instability. 0-6 km
    shear is forecast to be in the 35 to 45 knot range with a
    substantial amount of low-level directional shear. This should
    support a severe threat with supercells and short intense line
    segments. Severe wind gusts will be the primary threat.

    Further west into parts of the northern Plains, a subtle shortwave
    trough is forecast to move into South Dakota during the day. A
    post-frontal airmass will be in place ahead of the shortwave with
    surface dewpoints in the 60s to near 70 F. This will contribute to
    moderate instability by afternoon. Thunderstorms that develop near
    the axis of instability will have potential for isolated severe
    gusts during the late afternoon and early evening.

    ...Maine...
    A mid-level shortwave trough is forecast to move across the Great
    Lakes on Sunday, with west-southwesterly flow located over the
    Northeast. Ahead of the system, a cold front is forecast to move
    eastward across New England. As surface temperatures warm during the
    day, thunderstorm development is expected to take place near the
    front in the higher terrain across parts of western Maine. These
    storms are forecast to move quickly eastward across central and
    eastern Maine during the afternoon. Moderate instability, steep low
    lapse rates and sufficient deep-layer shear will likely support an
    isolated wind-damage threat.

    ...Southern Appalachians...
    Moderate instability will develop on Sunday across much of the
    southern Appalachians, where surface dewpoints will be in the upper
    60s to mid 70s F. As surface temperatures warm during the day,
    scattered thunderstorms will develop in the higher terrain. The
    moderate instability, along with precipitable water values in the
    1.70 to 1.85 inch range, will support a potential for isolated
    severe wet downbursts as instability becomes maximized in the late
    afternoon.

    ...Southeast Arizona...
    Surface dewpoints across southern Arizona will be in the upper 50s
    to near 60 F on Sunday. As surface temperatures warm during the day,
    moderate instability will develop over much of southern Arizona.
    Thunderstorms are expected to form in the higher terrain of eastern
    Arizona, with the storms moving west-southwestward into the unstable
    air during the late afternoon and early evening. Steep low-level
    lapse rates and large surface temperature-dewpoint spreads will
    support an isolated wind-damage threat.

    ..Broyles.. 08/08/2026

    $$

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    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)
  • From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sat Aug 8 17:35:50 2026
    ACUS02 KWNS 081735
    SWODY2
    SPC AC 081734

    Day 2 Convective Outlook
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1234 PM CDT Sat Aug 08 2026

    Valid 091200Z - 101200Z

    ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF
    CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA...AND FROM EASTERN IOWA INTO NORTHERN
    INDIANA...

    ...SUMMARY...
    Scattered damaging winds may occur Sunday from eastern Iowa across
    northern Illinois and Indiana. A concentrated area of damaging wind
    and hail is also expected over much of South Dakota.

    ...From eastern IA into northern IN...
    Storms, possibly producing strong wind gusts, may be ongoing over
    much of the area Sunday morning. This potentially severe activity
    could persist for much of the day as it travels southeastward with
    access to a destabilizing air mass.

    Behind the early activity, strong instability will develop as
    low-level winds remain out of the southwest. While mid to upper
    level winds will not be particularly strong, the veering low-level
    winds and likelihood of redevelopment along any outflow boundaries
    suggests additional severe storms during the late afternoon, moving
    across much of the same areas as the early day storms. Damaging
    winds appear to be the primary concern, however, a brief tornado
    cannot be ruled out early in the redevelopment cycle as low-level
    instability will be large, with perhaps enhanced low-level shear
    near residual outflows.

    ...Dakotas...
    Moderate northwest flow aloft will persist over the region, with
    surface winds veering to east/southeast late in the day. A moist
    plume should be maintained over SD within the recovering warm
    advection regime, with evening 850 mb winds also increasing out of
    the south. Surface based storms are expected to develop into much of
    SD, with an initial large hail threat. With time, an MCS could
    develop, producing a swath of damaging winds. Isolated significant
    wind gusts cannot be ruled out.

    ..Southern AZ...
    Easterly flow aloft around the upper high will support a westward
    component to the storms motions on Sunday, possibly bringing locally
    strong gusts into the lower elevations as storms move out of Mexico,
    and possibly off the Rim. Substantial PWAT will remain over the
    region with 60s F dewpoints which when combined with steep low-level
    lapse rates will support afternoon storms and locally severe gusts.

    ...Southern Appalachians...
    Storms will form over the higher terrain Sunday afternoon from
    northern GA into the western Carolinas. Given sufficient storm
    concentration, a few damaging gusts cannot be ruled out as storms
    and outflows generally spread eastward into the diurnally heating
    air mass.

    ..Jewell.. 08/08/2026

    $$

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    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)
  • From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sun Aug 9 05:44:22 2026
    ACUS02 KWNS 090544
    SWODY2
    SPC AC 090542

    Day 2 Convective Outlook
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1242 AM CDT Sun Aug 09 2026

    Valid 101200Z - 111200Z

    ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
    THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES...

    ...SUMMARY...
    Thunderstorms with severe wind gusts will be possible Monday
    afternoon and evening from northern Illinois eastward into western Pennsylvania. Isolated severe gusts and hail will also be possible
    from parts of the central and northern Plains into the Midwest.

    ...Southern Great Lakes...
    At mid-levels, west-northwesterly flow will be in place on Monday
    from the northern Plains into the Great Lakes. A subtle mid-level
    shortwave trough and an associated jet streak will move through the
    Great Lakes. To the south of the jet streak, a cold front is
    forecast to advance southward into northern Illinois, northern
    Indiana and northern Ohio by mid afternoon. Low-level convergence
    along the front will be a focus for convective development. To the
    south of the front, surface dewpoints in the 70s F will contribute
    to moderate to strong destabilization by afternoon, with MLCAPE
    likely peaking in the 2000 to 3500 J/kg range. Thunderstorms are
    expected to develop near the front and move east-southeastward into
    the stronger instability during the afternoon and evening.

    Along the instability axis in the late afternoon from Lincoln,
    Illinois to Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, the ECMWF has 0-6 km shear
    around 30 knots. This should support a mixed mode, with short
    intense line segments and embedded rotating storms possible. The
    primary threat will damaging wind gusts, with the maximum threat
    located ahead of any cold pool that can organize. The severe threat
    could persist into the early to mid evening, especially if MCS
    development takes place, maintained by increasing low-level flow.

    ...Central and Northern Plains/Midwest...
    West-northwesterly mid-level flow will be in place over the
    north-central U.S. on Monday. A subtle shortwave trough is forecast
    to move east-southeastward across the northern Plains. At the
    surface, a cold front is forecast to advance southward across
    western South Dakota during the day, with a dryline extending
    southward into western Nebraska. To the east of the dryline, surface
    dewpoints in the 60s and 70s F will contribute to moderate to strong instability by afternoon. Isolated thunderstorms appear likely to
    develop near the dryline during the mid to late afternoon.
    Additional isolated storms are expected to develop further east
    along the moist axis from eastern Nebraska into Iowa.

    Forecast sounding along the moist axis in the late afternoon have
    MLCAPE peaking in the 3000 to 4000 J/kg range with 0-6 km shear
    around 30 knots. This environment, combined with steep low to
    mid-level lapse rates, will support isolated potential for severe
    wind gusts and hail.

    ..Broyles.. 08/09/2026

    $$

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    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)
  • From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sun Aug 9 17:39:00 2026
    ACUS02 KWNS 091738
    SWODY2
    SPC AC 091737

    Day 2 Convective Outlook
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1237 PM CDT Sun Aug 09 2026

    Valid 101200Z - 111200Z

    ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ROUGHLY FROM
    ILLINOIS EASTWARD INTO PENNSYLVANIA...

    ...SUMMARY...
    Thunderstorms with severe wind gusts will be possible Monday
    afternoon and evening from northern Illinois eastward into western Pennsylvania. Isolated severe gusts and hail will also be possible
    from parts of the central and northern Plains into the Midwest, with
    scattered strong storms over southern Arizona.

    ...From northern IL eastward into PA...
    A leading shortwave trough may support early day thunderstorms over
    portions of NY and PA, though probably not immediately severe. Some
    chance exists for re-development from southern New England into NJ
    during the afternoon as a surface trough develops, and at least
    isolated severe activity is possible. Additional afternoon storms
    may develop across the remainder of NY and PA as instability
    develops behind the initial wave with areas of strong gusts and
    marginal hail.

    While isolated wind/hail may occur during the early to mid afternoon
    as the air mass becomes uncapped, a greater coverage of severe
    storms is expected during the late afternoon and into the evening
    from southern WI/IL into IN and OH. Here, a large area of strong
    instability will develop, with a persistent/deepening boundary layer
    theta-e plume out of the southwest. The high PWAT, relatively steep
    midlevel lapse rates, and deep layer shear of 40-50 kt will support
    supercell development, with possible bowing structures with time.
    Large hail, perhaps an isolated tornado, and damaging winds will be
    possible.

    ...Northern Plains...
    Southeast surface winds will maintain 60s F dewpoints into NE and SD
    during the afternoon as strong heating occurs near a surface trough
    over the High Plains/Black Hills. This will occur beneath moderate
    westerly flow aloft, which will elongate hodographs and produce
    favorable deep-layer shear for long-lived cells or bows. Storm
    coverage is uncertain, but the conditional risk for large damaging
    hail and wind is high. At least isolated cells are expected to form
    near the Black Hills and into western NE where heating will be
    strong, with perhaps greater storm chances increasing after 00Z into
    the central Dakotas with the aid of a modest nocturnal low-level
    jet.

    ...Southern AZ...
    Substantial moisture will remain over the area Monday, with PWAT
    over 1.25" and areas of 60s F dewpoints. Westerly surface winds are
    forecast to develop during the afternoon over southern AZ, which
    when combined with the deep easterlies aloft, will support
    westward-propagating cells. Storms should form near the Rim and over
    the higher terrain of southeast AZ, with locally severe gusts as
    activity moves across the lowlands. A storm or two could potentially
    produce small hail as well as deep-layer effective shear will be
    over 30 kt.

    ..Jewell.. 08/09/2026

    $$

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    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)
  • From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Mon Aug 10 06:01:02 2026
    ACUS02 KWNS 100600
    SWODY2
    SPC AC 100559

    Day 2 Convective Outlook
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1259 AM CDT Mon Aug 10 2026

    Valid 111200Z - 121200Z

    ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
    THE OHIO VALLEY AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...

    ...SUMMARY...
    Severe thunderstorms with damaging wind gusts will be possible on
    Tuesday from parts of the Ohio Valley into the central Appalachians
    in the afternoon and evening. Isolated severe wind gusts and hail
    will also be possible from parts of the central and northern Plains
    into the Midwest.

    ...Ohio Valley/Central Appalachians...
    At mid-levels, west-northwesterly flow will remain in place on
    Tuesday from the northern Plains to the central Appalachians. At the
    surface, a quasi-stationary front is forecast to be located from
    northern Illinois east-southeastward into far northern Kentucky. To
    the south of the front, surface dewpoints in the lower to mid 70s F
    will result in moderate to strong instability by midday. Low-level
    convergence along the boundary will likely be the focus for
    convective initiation during the day. It appears that an intense
    line segment could develop and move east-southeastward along and
    near the frontal zone from mid afternoon to mid evening. However,
    there is some uncertainty concerning where the boundary from morning
    convection will be in the afternoon.

    Forecast soundings along and to the south of the front from
    east-central Illinois into far northern Kentucky at 21Z have MLCAPE
    in the 2000 to 3500 J/kg range. Wind profiles along this
    west-northwest to east-southeast corridor have directional shear in
    the boundary layer with 40 to 50 knots of west-northwesterly flow in
    the mid-levels. Some of this zone could have 0-6 km shear in the 40
    to 50 knot range along with 0-3 km storm-relative helicity around
    200 m2/s2. This would support supercells with severe wind gusts and
    an isolated tornado threat. Some model forecasts, including the HRRR
    suggest that an organized cold pool will develop during the late
    afternoon. This scenario could result in a swath of wind damage
    across parts of the Ohio Valley.

    ...Central and Northern Plains/Midwest...
    At mid-levels, rising heights and west-northwesterly flow will be in
    place over the north-central U.S. on Tuesday. At the surface, a cold
    front will move southeastward across the northern High Plains, as a
    low deepens across South Dakota. Ahead of the front, surface
    dewpoints in the 60s and 70s F will contribute to moderate to strong instability by afternoon. Low-level convergence will aid convective
    initiation during the mid to late afternoon, with isolated storms
    moving east-southeastward from the northern Plains into the Midwest.

    Across the moist airmass, MLCAPE is forecast to peak in the 2000 to
    3000 J/kg range with 0-6 km shear in the 35 to 45 knot range. This
    will support supercells with isolated severe wind gusts and hail.
    However, the rising mid-level heights and lack of large-scale ascent
    could result in a more localized severe threat.

    ..Broyles.. 08/10/2026

    $$

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    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)
  • From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Mon Aug 10 17:33:46 2026
    ACUS02 KWNS 101733
    SWODY2
    SPC AC 101731

    Day 2 Convective Outlook
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1231 PM CDT Mon Aug 10 2026

    Valid 111200Z - 121200Z

    ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM FAR
    EASTERN IOWA AND NORTHERN ILLINOIS INTO INDIANA AND SOUTHWEST
    OHIO...

    ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN IOWA
    TO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...AND OVER THE DAKOTAS...

    ...SUMMARY...
    Severe thunderstorms with damaging wind gusts will be possible
    Tuesday from the eastern Iowa/northern Illinois vicinity into parts
    of the Ohio Valley and central Appalachians. Areas of severe wind
    gusts and hail will also be possible from parts of the northern
    Plains.

    ...From eastern IA into IL...IN...OH...Northern KY...WV...
    Moderate northwest flow aloft will persist over the region on
    Tuesday, while a large area of moisture and instability remain in
    place. Several rounds of thunderstorms will be possible throughout
    the region, with some uncertainty regarding timing and placement.
    However, the corridor of highest wind damage probability appears to
    be tied to early day storms which will be moving across IA. Several
    models suggest an organized MCS early on Tuesday, which would then
    proceed east/southeast during the day. This scenario seems plausible
    as instability will be strong with MUCAPE over 3000 J/kg, steep
    midlevel lapse rates, and moderate deep-layer mean wind speeds. A
    few significant wind gusts over 75 mph may occur, depending on MCS organization. Additional late day cells may redevelop along any
    trailing outflow, affecting areas from northern KY into WV and
    western VA with damaging gusts potential.

    ...Dakotas into MN and IA...
    A surface trough will develop during the afternoon as strong heating
    occurs, beneath moderate northwest flow aloft. Storms are expected
    to form after 21Z from the Black Hills into western ND, proceeding east/southeast into the central Dakotas and northern NE through the
    evening. Deep-layer shear around 40 kt and substantial instability
    will favor cells capable of large hail.

    There is significant uncertainly in whether storms will aggregate
    into an MCS, which could potentially spread into more of southern MN
    and IA Wednesday morning. If this occurs, damaging winds would be
    possible.

    ..Jewell.. 08/10/2026

    $$

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    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)
  • From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Tue Aug 11 06:02:48 2026
    ACUS02 KWNS 110602
    SWODY2
    SPC AC 110600

    Day 2 Convective Outlook
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0100 AM CDT Tue Aug 11 2026

    Valid 121200Z - 131200Z

    ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE
    CENTRAL AND NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...AND ALSO FOR PARTS OF THE MIDWEST
    AND OHIO VALLEY...

    ...SUMMARY...
    Thunderstorms with severe gusts and hail will be possible Wednesday
    afternoon and evening across parts of the central and northern High
    Plains. Damaging gusts and isolated hail will also be possible
    across parts of the Midwest and Ohio Valley.

    ...Parts of the Midwest/Ohio Valley...
    Guidance continues to vary considerably regarding potential for
    early-day convection across parts of the Midwest and Ohio Valley.
    Any morning convection will in turn influence the position of an
    effective frontal zone that will generally extend from parts of the
    mid MO Valley into the lower OH Valley. Strong heating, rich
    low-level moisture, and generally steep lapse rates will result in
    strong to extreme buoyancy to the warm side of the front, with
    substantial MUCAPE possible to the immediate cool side of the front.


    Multiple scenarios are possible. There will be some potential for
    any early-day storm cluster to propagate southeastward through the
    day, with a damaging-wind and isolated hail threat. Diurnal
    development will be possible in the vicinity of the frontal zone,
    with sufficient deep-layer shear for initial supercell potential.
    Hail and possibly a tornado could accompany the strongest diurnal
    storms, though there may be a tendency for clustering and perhaps
    organized upscale growth, with increasing wind-damage potential.
    While uncertainty remains high, one or more rounds of
    organized-severe potential could evolve in the vicinity of the
    frontal zone, and a 15% wind area was added where guidance currently
    has the greatest signal for development.

    ...Parts of the central/northern High Plains into the lower/mid
    Missouri Valley...
    To the north of a surface low across southeast CO and an
    eastward-extending warm front, moist low-level easterly flow will
    support potential for moderate to locally strong destabilization
    across parts of western SD/NE into northwest KS/far northeast CO.
    Midlevel flow will be relatively modest, but veering wind profiles
    will result in sufficient deep-layer shear for storm organization.

    Initial isolated to widely scattered discrete development could pose
    a threat of hail and localized severe gusts. Some upscale growth and
    possible MCS development may occur during the late evening and
    overnight across parts of central/eastern NE and vicinity. Guidance
    varies regarding the organization of any nocturnal MCS, but at least
    isolated damaging-wind potential could spread eastward through the
    end of the period.

    ...Northern SD/southern ND into parts of MN/WI/MI...
    While the strongest instability will remain south of the region,
    moderate buoyancy is forecast to develop along/ahead of a front
    draped from near the ND/SD border into southern MN, WI, and Lower
    MI. Coverage of storms is uncertain within this regime, but moderate northwesterly mid/upper-level flow and favorable deep-layer shear
    will support organized convection, with a threat for strong to
    locally severe gusts and hail if any sustained storms develop.

    ...Carolinas/Southern Appalachians...
    The evolution of antecedent upstream convection will have a
    considerable influence on the position of the primary surface front
    and any organized severe threat across parts of the southern
    Appalachians and Carolinas region on Wednesday. At least isolated
    storm development will be possible near the front and also across
    favored terrain areas, with modest west-northwesterly flow aloft
    supporting potential for outflow-driven cells/clusters with a threat
    of wind damage. Any features favorably timed with the diurnal cycle
    (such as a persistent storm cluster or MCV) could result in a
    greater coverage of wind-damage potential, but confidence in the
    details is too low for more than 5% wind probabilities at this time.

    ..Dean.. 08/11/2026

    $$

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    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)
  • From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Tue Aug 11 12:10:18 2026
    ACUS02 KWNS 111210
    SWODY2
    SPC AC 111208

    Day 2 Convective Outlook CORR 1
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0708 AM CDT Tue Aug 11 2026

    Valid 121200Z - 131200Z

    ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE
    CENTRAL AND NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...AND ALSO FOR PARTS OF THE MIDWEST
    AND OHIO VALLEY...

    CORRECTED FOR REVERSED THUNDER LINE IN SOUTH-CENTRAL US

    ...SUMMARY...
    Thunderstorms with severe gusts and hail will be possible Wednesday
    afternoon and evening across parts of the central and northern High
    Plains. Damaging gusts and isolated hail will also be possible
    across parts of the Midwest and Ohio Valley.

    ...Parts of the Midwest/Ohio Valley...
    Guidance continues to vary considerably regarding potential for
    early-day convection across parts of the Midwest and Ohio Valley.
    Any morning convection will in turn influence the position of an
    effective frontal zone that will generally extend from parts of the
    mid MO Valley into the lower OH Valley. Strong heating, rich
    low-level moisture, and generally steep lapse rates will result in
    strong to extreme buoyancy to the warm side of the front, with
    substantial MUCAPE possible to the immediate cool side of the front.


    Multiple scenarios are possible. There will be some potential for
    any early-day storm cluster to propagate southeastward through the
    day, with a damaging-wind and isolated hail threat. Diurnal
    development will be possible in the vicinity of the frontal zone,
    with sufficient deep-layer shear for initial supercell potential.
    Hail and possibly a tornado could accompany the strongest diurnal
    storms, though there may be a tendency for clustering and perhaps
    organized upscale growth, with increasing wind-damage potential.
    While uncertainty remains high, one or more rounds of
    organized-severe potential could evolve in the vicinity of the
    frontal zone, and a 15% wind area was added where guidance currently
    has the greatest signal for development.

    ...Parts of the central/northern High Plains into the lower/mid
    Missouri Valley...
    To the north of a surface low across southeast CO and an
    eastward-extending warm front, moist low-level easterly flow will
    support potential for moderate to locally strong destabilization
    across parts of western SD/NE into northwest KS/far northeast CO.
    Midlevel flow will be relatively modest, but veering wind profiles
    will result in sufficient deep-layer shear for storm organization.

    Initial isolated to widely scattered discrete development could pose
    a threat of hail and localized severe gusts. Some upscale growth and
    possible MCS development may occur during the late evening and
    overnight across parts of central/eastern NE and vicinity. Guidance
    varies regarding the organization of any nocturnal MCS, but at least
    isolated damaging-wind potential could spread eastward through the
    end of the period.

    ...Northern SD/southern ND into parts of MN/WI/MI...
    While the strongest instability will remain south of the region,
    moderate buoyancy is forecast to develop along/ahead of a front
    draped from near the ND/SD border into southern MN, WI, and Lower
    MI. Coverage of storms is uncertain within this regime, but moderate northwesterly mid/upper-level flow and favorable deep-layer shear
    will support organized convection, with a threat for strong to
    locally severe gusts and hail if any sustained storms develop.

    ...Carolinas/Southern Appalachians...
    The evolution of antecedent upstream convection will have a
    considerable influence on the position of the primary surface front
    and any organized severe threat across parts of the southern
    Appalachians and Carolinas region on Wednesday. At least isolated
    storm development will be possible near the front and also across
    favored terrain areas, with modest west-northwesterly flow aloft
    supporting potential for outflow-driven cells/clusters with a threat
    of wind damage. Any features favorably timed with the diurnal cycle
    (such as a persistent storm cluster or MCV) could result in a
    greater coverage of wind-damage potential, but confidence in the
    details is too low for more than 5% wind probabilities at this time.

    ..Dean.. 08/11/2026

    $$

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    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)
  • From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Tue Aug 11 17:36:20 2026
    ACUS02 KWNS 111736
    SWODY2
    SPC AC 111734

    Day 2 Convective Outlook
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1234 PM CDT Tue Aug 11 2026

    Valid 121200Z - 131200Z

    ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PORTIONS OF
    CENTRAL ILLINOIS INTO LOWER OHIO VALLEY...AND PORTIONS OF THE
    CENTRAL PLAINS...

    ...SUMMARY...
    Thunderstorms with severe gusts and hail will be possible Wednesday
    afternoon and evening across parts of the central and northern High
    Plains. Damaging gusts and isolated hail will also be possible
    across parts of the Midwest and Ohio Valley.

    ...Illinois/Lower Ohio Valley...
    Forecast uncertainty remains high for these regions. Morning
    convection, or lack thereof, will influence the location/magnitude
    of afternoon severe potential. At least modest southwesterly flow at
    low levels is expected to continue into Wednesday morning. It is at
    least plausible that the boundary within Iowa/Illinois remains
    stationary or makes only modest southward progress. Weak warm
    advection may promote elevated storms in northern Illinois by mid
    morning. These storms could produce large hail and isolated wind
    damage. Into the afternoon, this activity could have a tendency to
    develop southward into a very moist, destabilizing airmass in the
    Lower Ohio Valley. Another possibility is the development along the
    surface boundary during the afternoon. The eastward progress of
    storms will likely be limited as substantial impact from convection
    is anticipated from Tuesday afternoon/evening. Steep mid-level lapse
    rates and 40-45 kt of effective shear will allow for organized
    storms capable of isolated large hail and damaging winds. Damaging
    winds are expected to be the main threat as upscale growth is
    expected to occur quickly. The 15% Wind/Slight Risk has been
    adjusted northward and eastward to account for trends in guidance
    and expected airmass destabilization.

    ...Central Plains...
    Moist, easterly flow north of a developing surface low in eastern Colorado/western Kansas will allow for moderate to strong
    destabilization across parts of Nebraska/southern South Dakota.
    Steep mid-level lapse rates and moderate to strong effective shear
    will promote supercell development from near the Black Hills to
    southwestern Nebraska. Large hail and isolated severe wind gusts
    would be possible initially. Some intensification of the low-level
    jet may lead to upscale growth into one or more linear segments
    moving eastward. The potential for a more organized MCS is not clear
    given the low-level jet will be focused farther east. Elevated
    storms associated with the low-level jet core are possible in
    eastern Nebraska/western Iowa where large hail and isolated wind
    gusts may occur.

    ...North Dakota into Wisconsin Michigan...
    Modest destabilization is expected farther north into the northern
    Plains and Upper Midwest/Great Lakes. Sufficient mid-level flow will
    be present for organized storms. The main questions will be storm
    coverage and longevity. Isolated wind damage and large hail would
    occur with the strongest, sustained storms.

    ...Carolinas/southern Appalachians...
    Uncertainty in the evolution of early morning convection remains
    relatively high. While an MCV from convection in the Ohio Valley may
    impact parts of these regions, the timing of this feature may not
    lend to an organized severe threat during the afternoon. The
    Marginal risk will be maintained this outlook cycle for potential
    isolated strong to severe storms. However, the potential for
    sufficient airmaass destabilization continues to appear low.

    ..Wendt.. 08/11/2026

    $$

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    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)
  • From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Wed Aug 12 06:02:04 2026
    ACUS02 KWNS 120601
    SWODY2
    SPC AC 120600

    Day 2 Convective Outlook
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0100 AM CDT Wed Aug 12 2026

    Valid 131200Z - 141200Z

    ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE COLORADO
    FRONT RANGE AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS EASTWARD INTO PARTS OF THE
    MIDWEST AND OHIO VALLEY...

    ...SUMMARY...
    Isolated severe storms are possible on Thursday from the Colorado
    Front Range and central High Plains into the Ohio Valley.

    ...Synopsis...
    Some amplification of the upper-level pattern is expected on
    Thursday across the central/eastern CONUS. An upper ridge initially
    over the lower MS Valley is forecast to expand and build northward
    into parts of the Great Plains. To the east of building ridge, a
    seasonably strong mid/upper-level shortwave trough is forecast to
    move southeastward across the Great Lakes towards the Northeast. A
    surface low is forecast to remain in place across the south-central
    Plains. A nearly stationary front is forecast to extend
    east-northeast of the low toward the lower MO Valley, and then east-southeastward toward the lower OH Valley.

    ...Central Plains into parts of the Midwest/Ohio Valley...
    Isolated severe potential remains evident in the vicinity of the
    surface front on Thursday, though confidence in the details remains
    low. Elevated convection and possibly a remnant MCS may be ongoing
    at the start of the period from eastern NE into parts of IA/northern
    MO. Depending on the extent to which the early-day convection can
    propagate within the rich moisture and moderate to strong buoyancy
    along the frontal zone, some severe threat could spread
    east-southeastward toward the lower OH Valley through the day.

    Otherwise, isolated storms may develop near/north of the front
    through the day, with an increase in coverage expected Thursday
    evening within a warm-advection regime. Generally modest and
    front-parallel mid/upper-level flow may lead to training storms and
    a tendency for convection to be undercut or generally remain
    somewhat elevated. However, deep-layer shear will still be modestly
    supportive of organized convection within the moist and unstable
    environment, with some potential for isolated damaging gusts and
    hail.

    ...CO Front Range into the adjacent High Plains...
    To the north/northwest of the primary surface low, moist easterly
    low-level flow will support moderate to locally strong
    destabilization from the CO Front Range into parts of the central
    High Plains. Deep-layer flow will generally remain modest, but
    veering wind profiles will provide sufficient effective shear for
    some storm organization. Isolated hail and locally severe gusts will
    be possible with the strongest storms in this region.
    Isolated to widely scattered storms will also be possible within the
    hot and well-mixed regime near/south of the front and surface low.
    Weak deep-layer shear should limit storm organization in this
    regime, but steep low-level lapse rates could support localized
    severe gusts.

    ...Northeast...
    Seasonably strong mid/upper-level flow will overspread the Northeast
    on Thursday. However, low-level flow will remain rather weak, and
    generally modest moisture and lapse rates will limit
    destabilization. MLCAPE Of 500-1000 J/kg will support development of
    widely scattered thunderstorms across northern New England. There
    will be some displacement between the strongest deep-layer flow and
    more favorable buoyancy. Small hail and gusty winds could accompany
    the strongest storms, but confidence in sufficient destabilization
    remains too low for severe probabilities at this time.

    ...Southeast...
    Thunderstorm development is expected across parts of AL/GA/SC on
    Thursday, within a very warm and moist environment. Guidance varies
    regarding the extent to which early-day convection and related
    outflow move into the region from the north, and the influence any
    such convection/outflow would have on storm development and
    evolution later in the day. In general, deep-layer flow/shear will
    be weak, but the very warm and moist environment could support
    localized downburst potential. Confidence in an organized severe
    threat is currently low, but if trends support the presence of any
    outflow boundaries or remnant MCVs emanating from upstream, then
    wind probabilities may eventually be needed for some part of this
    region.

    ...Great Basin...
    Storm development is again expected across parts of the Great Basin
    on Thursday afternoon, with coverage potentially aided by a midlevel
    trough approaching the region from central/southern CA. Deep-layer
    shear will remain modest at best, but favorable lapse rates and
    cooling temperatures aloft could support relatively vigorous
    updrafts with potential for localized strong to severe gusts.
    Uncertainty remains regarding the organization of any severe threat,
    but wind probabilities may eventually be needed for this area as
    well.

    ..Dean.. 08/12/2026

    $$

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  • From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Wed Aug 12 17:37:04 2026
    ACUS02 KWNS 121736
    SWODY2
    SPC AC 121735

    Day 2 Convective Outlook
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1235 PM CDT Wed Aug 12 2026

    Valid 131200Z - 141200Z

    ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF SOUTHERN/CENTRAL NEVADA...AND FROM THE FRONT RANGE INTO THE MIDDLE
    OHIO VALLEY...

    ...SUMMARY...
    Isolated severe storms are possible on Thursday from the parts of
    the southern Great Basin, Colorado Front Range, and central High
    Plains into the Ohio Valley.

    ...Central Plains into Ohio Valley...
    Model guidance is uniform in placing early morning convection/MCS in
    Iowa. This feature will likely track into parts of the Upper Midwest
    as has been the case the past couple of days. What will be lacking
    on Thursday will be steep mid-level lapse rates owing to the amount
    of recent convective overturning. Secondary to that, the morning
    convection will likely move through and airmass north of the
    effective surface boundary. Isolated wind damage will be possible,
    however. There will be strong heating in Missouri with modest
    southwest flow into the surface boundary. There will be a
    conditional threat for a supercell or two along the boundary during
    the afternoon. Forcing will be weak, however, and this scenario is
    uncertain.

    As the low-level jet intensifies during the evening, areas of
    scattered storms will be possible from the central Plains into the
    Upper Midwest. These storms are likely to be at least slightly
    elevated. Boundary parallel deep-layer shear will also mean activity
    will tend to train/interact along the boundary and be only briefly supercellular. Isolated large hail and wind damage would be the main
    concerns.

    ...Front Range into central High Plains...
    Moist upslope flow on the north/northwest side of the surface low in
    the central Plains will promote moderate to locally strong
    destabilization within these regions. Deep-layer shear of around 30
    kt can be expected along the Front Range. Scattered storms should
    develop by the afternoon. The strongest of this activity will be
    capable of large hail and severe wind gusts. Near the Sangre de
    Cristo/Raton Mesa, additional convection is expected to develop
    along the surface boundary with strong heating to the south. Severe
    winds would be the main hazard with this activity as it moves north
    and east. There is some signal for clustering within some of the
    CAMs which would promote a locally greater risk in parts of western
    Kansas.

    ...Nevada...
    A broad upper trough along the West Coast will bring modest
    southwesterly flow across the southern Sierra. Model guidance
    suggests that a shortwave perturbation will be favorably timed with
    afternoon heating and help to focus a small cluster of convection
    moving off of the higher terrain into parts of central/southern
    Nevada. Low-level lapse rates are expected to be steep, particularly
    in the lee of the Sierra. Severe wind gusts will be possible with
    this activity.

    ...Northeast...
    A broad upper trough with one or more embedded shortwave troughs
    will move across the region during the period. A strong mid-level
    jet will develop into parts of the northern Mid-Atlantic with
    decreasing mid-level flow to the north and east. While some
    drying/mixing can be expected, MLCAPE of 500-1000 J/kg is possible
    given cold temperatures aloft. The core of the mid-level jet will be
    offset from the larger instability. Furthermore, modest subsidence
    aloft is apparent in forecast soundings likely due to the region
    being in between shortwave troughs during the afternoon. Gusty winds
    and small hail are possible with the strongest storms, but severe
    potential appears too isolated for probabilities.

    ...Southeast...
    A remnant MCV is possible near the southern Appalachians during the
    morning. Models differ in the overall strength of this feature. The
    NAM has the most robust circulation, but also weakens it with time.
    Moderate to strong buoyancy is expected by the afternoon, but shear
    will remain weak. While a few strong to locally severe wind gusts
    are possible, confidence in an area of greater
    concentration/organization remains quite low at present time.

    ..Wendt.. 08/12/2026

    $$

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  • From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Thu Aug 13 06:20:54 2026
    ACUS02 KWNS 130601
    SWODY2
    SPC AC 130559

    Day 2 Convective Outlook
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1259 AM CDT Thu Aug 13 2026

    Valid 141200Z - 151200Z

    ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL
    HIGH PLAINS EASTWARD INTO PARTS OF THE MIDWEST...OHIO VALLEY...AND MID-ATLANTIC...

    ...SUMMARY...
    Isolated strong to severe storms are possible from the central High
    Plains into parts of the Midwest, Ohio Valley, and Mid-Atlantic on
    Friday.

    ...Synopsis...
    An upper ridge initially covering parts of the lower MS Valley and
    Southeast is forecast to build northward on Friday. Despite the
    building ridge, multiple MCVs may traverse the periphery of the
    ridge, helping to focus strong to locally severe storm development
    within a moist and unstable environment extending from the central
    Plains into the Midwest, Ohio Valley, and Mid-Atlantic/Carolinas.

    ...Ohio Valley into parts of the Mid-Atlantic...
    Elevated convection and possibly a remnant MCS may be ongoing Friday
    morning across parts of the Ohio Valley. Guidance varies regarding
    the organization/intensity of this morning convection, and whether
    it is associated with a well-defined MCV. In general, an isolated
    wind-damage threat could accompany the morning convection before it
    weakens, with some rejuvenation of wind-damage potential possible
    into parts of the Mid-Atlantic and NC, in conjunction with diurnal heating/destabilization. Some clustering and locally greater
    wind-damage potential may evolve across some part of the region, but uncertainty remains rather high regarding the details.

    The 12/00Z NAM is an aggressive outlier, depicting a strong MCV
    approaching the Mid-Atlantic region during the afternoon, and
    substantial destabilization farther north across the Mid-Atlantic
    compared to other guidance. While confidence in this particular
    scenario is low, some expansion was made to the Marginal Risk across
    the Mid-Atlantic and NC, to account for uncertainty regarding the
    most favored corridor.

    ...East-central Plains into the Midwest...
    Elevated convection will also likely be ongoing Friday morning from
    eastern NE into parts of IA/IL and vicinity. An isolated severe
    threat cannot be ruled out with this convection, though early-day
    storms may tend to diminish in conjunction with a weakening
    warm-advection regime.

    In the wake of morning convection, moderate to strong buoyancy is
    expected to develop near/north of the outflow-influenced frontal
    zone during the afternoon, aided by rich low-level moisture. Veering
    low-level wind profiles near/north of the front will result in
    favorable effective SRH, though mid/upper-level flow will be modest
    at best and may weaken somewhat with height.

    Most guidance suggests an MCV may emerge from the central High
    Plains and move along the periphery of the ridge through the
    afternoon/evening, though the timing and trajectory of such a
    feature remains uncertain. Any MCV-related uptick in storm coverage
    would result in a greater potential for organized severe storms.
    Otherwise, isolated strong to severe storms will still be possible.
    The favorable effective SRH could support initial supercell
    development, with some potential for all severe hazards. The weak to
    modest mid/upper-level flow could result in a quick transition to
    more of a cluster mode, potentially increasing wind-damage
    potential.

    ...CO Front Range into the central High Plains...
    Low-level east/southeasterly flow will again promote moderate
    destabilization and scattered storm development in the vicinity of
    the CO Front Range Friday afternoon. Deep-layer flow/shear will
    generally be weak to modest, but the strongest cells may become
    capable of producing isolated hail and localized severe gusts.
    Farther south/east, high-based convection may develop into parts of
    the south-central High Plains, within a hot and well-mixed
    environment. Localized severe gusts could accompany these high-based
    storms.

    Friday evening into the overnight, expanding outflow and an
    increasing low-level jet may allow for one or more upscale-growing
    clusters to develop and move across western KS (and perhaps
    southwest NE). The intensity and longevity of any such clusters
    could be limited by weak mid/upper-level flow, but some threat for
    strong to severe gusts could persist into early Saturday morning.

    ..Dean.. 08/13/2026

    $$

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  • From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Thu Aug 13 17:32:18 2026
    ACUS02 KWNS 131732
    SWODY2
    SPC AC 131730

    Day 2 Convective Outlook
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1230 PM CDT Thu Aug 13 2026

    Valid 141200Z - 151200Z

    ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL
    HIGH PLAINS EASTWARD INTO PARTS OF THE MIDWEST...OHIO VALLEY...AND MID-ATLANTIC...

    ...SUMMARY...
    Isolated strong to severe storms are possible from the central High
    Plains into parts of the Midwest, Ohio Valley, and Mid-Atlantic on
    Friday.

    ...East-central Plains into the Midwest...
    Isolated severe potential will be possible with early morning
    elevated storms within a warm advection regime. These storms will
    generally diminish with time given the weakening low-level jet. An
    MCV will likely emanate from the central High Plains and impact the Mid-Missouri Valley during the afternoon. This MCV will track along
    the periphery of the upper ridge that will be building into the
    Plains/Midwest. Model guidance varies with regard to how organized
    this MCV and associated surface reflection will be. Moderate to
    strong instability is expected to develop near the effective surface
    boundary by the afternoon despite some expected cloud cover. The
    timing of convective development is quite uncertain. The HRRR
    suggests strong enough convergence at the surface that storms will
    form by late afternoon. Many other CAMs suggests development after
    00Z as the low-level jet increases again. Storms that do develop
    will likely have supercell characteristics initially, but weak flow
    above 500 mb will tend to lead to outflow dominance and clustering.
    Should confidence in late afternoon development increase, there may
    be greater severe potential than currently expected.

    ...Ohio Valley into parts of the Mid-Atlantic...
    Convection will likely be ongoing across portions of the Ohio Valley
    into the central Appalachians early Friday morning. Model guidance
    generally suggests that an MCV feature will be associated with this
    activity, though the strength of the MCV varies. Regardless of how
    strong the MCV is, there is a consistent signal for cloud cover
    limiting destabilization/low-level lapse rates across much of these
    regions. Stronger mid-level winds will also be displaced from the
    larger buoyancy values in the Carolinas. Given the timing of the
    MCV, it appears likely that wind damage potential will be spatially
    limited. There will be a small corridor of stronger heating in
    southeast Virginia/northeast North Carolina which could see locally
    stronger storms.

    ...CO Front Range into the central High Plains...
    Moist east/southeasterly surface winds into the higher terrain will
    again promote scattered storm development within the Front Range.
    Deep-layer shear will not be overly strong, but a few storms will be
    capable of isolated hail and severe winds. Additional storms are
    expected in the hotter, well-mixed environment to the south and
    east. These storms will be capable of severe winds. There will be
    some increase in the low-level jet during the evening. The strongest
    850 mb winds will be focused farther east, however. If a cluster can
    form, it may persist farther eastward into later in the evening.

    ..Wendt.. 08/13/2026

    $$

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  • From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Fri Aug 14 05:53:52 2026
    ACUS02 KWNS 140553
    SWODY2
    SPC AC 140551

    Day 2 Convective Outlook
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1251 AM CDT Fri Aug 14 2026

    Valid 151200Z - 161200Z

    ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
    HIGH PLAINS...AND FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE CAROLINAS...

    ...SUMMARY...
    Strong to severe storms are possible on Saturday from the central
    High Plains eastward into parts of the Midwest, Ohio Valley,
    southern/central Appalachians, and Carolinas.

    ...Ohio Valley...

    An MCV is forecast to be located in the vicinity of eastern
    IA/northern IL Saturday morning. A surface boundary will be draped
    northwest to southeast across lower MI toward WV while the surface
    low/MCV shifts east across southern Lake MI toward the Lower Great
    Lakes through the evening. A very moist airmass will be in place,
    and at least a narrow corridor of strong instability may develop.
    Spread among forecast guidance remains fairly large regarding these
    surface features and corridors of greater destabilization.
    Nevertheless, stronger vertical shear in the vicinity of the surface
    low/MCV will support organized severe convection. Damaging winds and
    perhaps a tornado or two will be possible as convection develops
    near the MCV and southeastward along the surface boundary toward
    WV/eastern KY.

    ...VA/Carolinas into the Southeast...

    Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop over higher terrain
    within a very moist and moderately unstable airmass Saturday
    afternoon. Vertical shear will remain modest, especially with
    southward extent into GA/FL, but strong heating could support
    sporadic downbursts within the high-PW environment. If sufficient
    clustering occurs over higher terrain, a forward-propagating cluster
    could move across portions of the Carolinas, producing greater risk
    for damaging gusts.

    ...Central High Plains to the MO Valley...

    Another MCV is forecast to be located over KS/NE, moving toward the
    Mid-MO Valley. Downstream destabilization is uncertain as this
    airmass will have been modified by the downstream MCV moving into
    the Midwest. Meanwhile, a moist airmass will be in place westward
    into the central High Plains. Upslope flow will support scattered
    thunderstorm development over higher terrain by early/mid afternoon.
    As convection spreads eastward into eastern CO and vicinity, steep
    lapse rates and modest but favorable shear profiles will support at
    least transient organized cells capable of producing large hail and
    damaging gusts. Additional convection may develop eastward across NE
    ahead of a surface cold front, mainly posing a risk for isolated
    damaging gusts.

    ..Leitman.. 08/14/2026

    $$

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    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)
  • From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Fri Aug 14 17:27:24 2026
    ACUS02 KWNS 141727
    SWODY2
    SPC AC 141725

    Day 2 Convective Outlook
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1225 PM CDT Fri Aug 14 2026

    Valid 151200Z - 161200Z

    ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
    HIGH PLAINS...AND FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE CAROLINAS...

    ...SUMMARY...
    Strong to severe storms are possible on Saturday from the central
    High Plains eastward into parts of the Midwest, Ohio Valley,
    southern/central Appalachians, and Carolinas.

    ...Synopsis...
    The upper ridge is expected to broaden and expand westward on
    Saturday. Modest to regionally moderate flow aloft will be confined
    to the northern half of the CONUS. A convectively modified surface
    boundary from the Mid-Atlantic westward into the Midwest and central
    Plains will be the general focus for convection outside of MCV
    features moving around the upper ridge.

    ...Midwest/Ohio Valley...
    An MCV is forecast to be in northern Illinois/southern Wisconsin
    Saturday morning. This feature will track eastward during the day.
    Scattered storms are expected near the MCV and along a surface
    boundary from the southern Great Lakes region into the central
    Appalachians. Early morning precipitation and cloud cover associated
    with the MCV is may limit surface heating, but the very moist
    airmass will not need much heating to destabilize. Damaging winds
    will be the main threat with a tornado or two possible, particularly
    near the MCV. Storms may only be organized for short periods given
    weak lapse rates and shear concentrated in the lower half of the
    troposphere.

    ...Central High Plains into the Missouri Valley...
    Another MCV is expected to track eastward through the central Plains
    into Iowa/Missouri. Given the impacts of the preceding MCV on
    Friday, it is not clear how much destabilization, and therefore
    storm coverage will occur. Should afternoon storms develop, the
    strongest activity will likely be on the southern flank of the MCV
    from northeast Kansas into northern Missouri. Later in the evening,
    additional storms are possible along the cold front.

    Farther west, flow aloft in the central Rockies will become more
    westerly. At the surface, continued moist upslope flow will promote
    scattered to numerous storms by afternoon. Cloud cover may keep
    temperatures somewhat cool, but steep lapse rates aloft and around
    35-40 kt of effective shear near the terrain will support transient
    supercell structures capable of large hail and severe wind gusts.
    Storm/outflow interaction is likely with a few clusters propagating
    eastward with time.

    ...Southern Appalachians into the Piedmont...
    Strong heating of at least low 70s F dewpoints will promote strong
    instability by the afternoon. Flow aloft will be weak to modest from
    the northwest. Though storms may not be very organized, scattered
    convection within the terrain may move east/southeast with time. One
    or more clusters may develop leading to localized corridors of wind
    damage potential.

    ...Central/Northern Minnesota...
    A cold front will be the focus for potential isolated storm
    development. Mid-level forcing for ascent will be quite weak and
    thermodynamic profiles will be marginal. Should storms develop,
    isolated strong outflow winds would be possible. Severe potential
    remains too limited for probabilities.

    ...Northeast Oregon into central Idaho...
    With a subtle shortwave trough moving through during the afternoon, thunderstorms are likely to develop within the Blue Mountains and
    move northeastward. Modest buoyancy and effective shear will promote
    a couple of stronger storms. Small hail and gusty outflow winds may
    occur, but severe potential appears limited.

    ..Wendt.. 08/14/2026

    $$

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