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  • DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

    From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Wed Aug 5 19:35:26 2026
    ACUS03 KWNS 051935
    SWODY3
    SPC AC 051934

    Day 3 Convective Outlook
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0234 PM CDT Wed Aug 05 2026

    Valid 071200Z - 081200Z

    ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE
    UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...

    ...SUMMARY...
    A few strong storms may occur over parts of the Upper Mississippi
    Valley region on Friday. Locally strong/damaging wind gusts appear
    most likely.

    ...Upper Mississippi Valley...
    An intensifying mid-level jet is expected to move into the northern Plains/Upper Midwest during the afternoon. Convergence along a cold
    front should increase within Minnesota/western Wisconsin/Iowa. With
    around 40 kt of effective shear, supercell structures are possible
    at least initially. With time, convergence along the front may
    promote more linear storm modes with one or more organizing
    clusters/line segments. The zone of greater buoyancy will not extend
    much to the east into Wisconsin. There will be a reservoir of strong instability in parts of Iowa, however. A small MCS could organize
    and move southward into this airmass. Wind damaging will be the
    primary hazard, though large hail could occur with initial
    supercells.

    ...Upper Ohio Valley into Mid-Atlantic...
    Upper 60s to potentially mid 70s F dewpoints are forecast to remain
    across these regions into Friday. Stronger surface heating and
    temperatures at or above 90 F in some locations will support
    1500-2500 J/kg MLCAPE. Deep-layer shear across the
    Mid-Atlantic/Northeast is expected to be a bit weaker than on
    Thursday. Scattered thunderstorms are probable by the afternoon.
    Generally weak winds throughout the troposphere suggest locally
    pulse severe storms. Lack of greater organization precludes a risk
    area at this time.

    Stronger mid-level flow is forecast across the Upper Ohio Valley in
    association with the Great Lakes trough and possibly an MCV moving
    eastward. Models differ on the timing/strength of pertinent surface
    features during the afternoon. A zone of greater storm organization
    could develop from eastern Indiana into parts of central southern
    Ohio and northern Kentucky. Uncertainty remains too high for
    probabilities.

    ..Wendt.. 08/05/2026

    $$

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    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)
  • From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Thu Aug 6 07:12:34 2026
    ACUS03 KWNS 060712
    SWODY3
    SPC AC 060711

    Day 3 Convective Outlook
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0211 AM CDT Thu Aug 06 2026

    Valid 081200Z - 091200Z

    ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NEBRASKA
    INTO PARTS OF IOWA AND NORTHERN MISSOURI...

    ...SUMMARY...
    A corridor of damaging winds may develop Saturday afternoon and
    evening from Nebraska into Iowa/Northern Missouri.

    ...Mid to Lower MO Valley...
    Moderate northwest flow aloft will persist across the northern
    Plains into the Great Lakes on Saturday, as the main upper wave
    rotates northeast from Ontario into Quebec. The southern periphery
    of this stronger flow aloft will remain over the middle to lower MO
    Valley, with a warm front developing across NE and IA. Strong
    heating will occur east of a surface low either in western NE or KS,
    with south winds resulting in a deep mixed layer by afternoon.

    Storms are expected to form over NE, and possibly move into IA or MO
    through evening in the form of an MCS. This would be fueled by a
    strengthening southerly low-level jet as well, suggesting an
    organized system may occur. For now, low probabilities have been
    added due to uncertainty with placement of any such corridor.
    Damaging winds would be the main concern.

    ...Mid Atlantic...
    Scattered afternoon storms will again be likely over much of the
    eastern states on Saturday, within a modest southwest flow regime. A
    high PW environment will remain in place, supporting an uncapped air
    mass and conditional/localized wind risk. Predictability is low at
    this time given possible antecedent rain or thunderstorm areas, but
    low probabilities for wind could be added in later updates.

    ..Jewell.. 08/06/2026

    $$

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    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)
  • From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Thu Aug 6 19:33:04 2026
    ACUS03 KWNS 061932
    SWODY3
    SPC AC 061931

    Day 3 Convective Outlook
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0231 PM CDT Thu Aug 06 2026

    Valid 081200Z - 091200Z

    ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF
    CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA/NEBRASKA INTO IOWA AND NORTHERN MISSOURI...

    ...SUMMARY...
    A corridor of damaging winds may develop Saturday afternoon and
    evening from South Dakota/Nebraska into Iowa/Northern Missouri.

    ...South Dakota/Nebraska into Mid-Missouri/Mississippi Valleys...
    Models are in general agreement that convection will be ongoing
    early Saturday morning near the central South Dakota/Nebraska
    border. There is some potential for this activity to intensify as destabilization occurs in eastern Nebraska into Iowa during the
    afternoon. Moderate mid-level flow will extend into these regions.
    Strong heating to the south of a developing warm front/outflow
    boundary will lead to a strongly unstable environment. The two main
    questions for this forecast will be whether the early morning
    activity can develop enough of a cold pool to persist through the
    diurnally unfavorable morning time frame, and what the impacts from
    potential convection in Iowa on Friday will be. The overall setup
    and environment appear favorable for MCS development. Higher
    probabilities will likely be needed as confidence in the corridor of
    greater risk increases.

    ...Mid-Atlantic...
    Some potential for thunderstorms exists during the afternoon as a
    very moist and uncapped airmass will remain in place on Saturday.
    Mid-level flow will be stronger with northern extent with cyclonic
    flow aloft continuing over the Great Lakes/New England. Though
    widely scattered to scattered storms are probable, effective shear
    and mid-level lapse rates will be weak. Furthermore, mesoscale
    features aiding convective organization are not evident in model
    guidance. There may be an embedded perturbation within the flow
    aloft, but models differ on the location/intensity of these
    features. Uncertainty in storm severity remains high.

    ..Wendt.. 08/06/2026

    $$

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    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)
  • From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Fri Aug 7 07:24:06 2026
    ACUS03 KWNS 070723
    SWODY3
    SPC AC 070723

    Day 3 Convective Outlook
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0223 AM CDT Fri Aug 07 2026

    Valid 091200Z - 101200Z

    ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF
    THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN
    GREAT LAKES REGION...

    ...SUMMARY...
    Thunderstorms with isolated severe wind gusts and hail will be
    possible Sunday afternoon and evening from parts of the central and
    northern Plains east-southeastward into the southern Great Lakes
    region.

    ...Central and Northern Plains/Mid Missouri Valley/Southern Great
    Lakes...
    At the surface, a cold front will advance southward into the
    north-central states on Sunday, being positioned from South Dakota
    eastward into Wisconsin by afternoon. Surface dewpoints near and to
    the south of the front will be in the 60s and 70s F, which will
    contribute to the development of moderate instability. Large-scale
    ascent over this unstable airmass will remain relatively weak. In
    spite of this, isolated thunderstorms are expected to form in areas
    where low-level convergence becomes maximized. Model forecasts
    suggest that the most favorable locations could be near the front in
    South Dakota and from northeastern Nebraska into southern Iowa along
    the northern edge of the stronger low-level flow. In both of these
    locations, moderate to strong instability coupled with moderate
    deep-layer shear should be sufficient for a severe threat. Severe
    wind gusts will be the most likely hazard during the late afternoon
    and early evening with cell clusters or short line segments that
    move southeastward along and near the instability axis. Hail could
    also occur mainly in the central and northern Plains, where
    mid-level lapse rates will be steepest.

    ..Broyles.. 08/07/2026

    $$

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    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)
  • From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Fri Aug 7 19:39:48 2026
    ACUS03 KWNS 071939
    SWODY3
    SPC AC 071938

    Day 3 Convective Outlook
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0238 PM CDT Fri Aug 07 2026

    Valid 091200Z - 101200Z

    ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE BLACK
    HILLS INTO MID-MISSOURI/MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS AND PARTS OF THE
    SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES...CENTRAL/EASTERN MAINE...

    ...SUMMARY...
    Thunderstorms with isolated severe wind gusts and hail will be
    possible Sunday afternoon and evening from parts of the central and
    northern Plains east-southeastward into the southern Great Lakes
    region. Additional strong to severe storms are possible in Maine.

    ...Black Hills into parts of the lower Grate Lakes...
    Forecast uncertainty remains high. A moderate to strong low-level
    jet is forecast to persist into early Sunday morning. This feature
    will generally be focused into the Mid-Mississippi Valley region. It
    is probable that some convection will be ongoing during the early
    morning with some risk for large hail and possibly isolated damaging
    winds. While the low-level jet will weaken to some extent into the
    mid/late morning, modest 850 mb theta-e advection will continue and
    may promote stronger development along the outflow from this early
    activity. Steep mid-level lapse rates and 40-50 kt of effective
    shear on the western flank of the outflow would favor severe storms.
    Similar to Saturday, additional storms could form as the low-level
    jet intensifies Sunday night. Large hail would be the most likely
    hazard as these storms would tend to be slightly elevated.

    Farther west, storm development is much more uncertain. Warm
    temperatures aloft will lead to capping within the Plains. A surface
    low is forecast to develop which may provide local enhancement to
    convergence, but the location and strength of this feature varies
    model to model. Mid-level ascent will be subtle at best. The ECMWF
    is the most aggressive with afternoon development. That solution
    suggests development near the surface low/Black Hills with a
    southeastward moving complex. While an increase in probabilities
    would be needed in this scenario, confidence is not high.

    ...Maine...
    Moderate mid-level winds will continue across much of the Northeast.
    Ahead of a cold front, upper 60s to low 70s F dewpoints will support
    1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE. Shear will be modest, but hodographs will be
    long. A few marginal supercell structures are possible with an
    accompanying risk for isolated wind damage and marginal hail.

    ..Wendt.. 08/07/2026

    $$

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    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)
  • From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Fri Aug 7 20:34:44 2026
    ACUS03 KWNS 072034
    SWODY3
    SPC AC 072033

    Day 3 Convective Outlook CORR 1
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0333 PM CDT Fri Aug 07 2026

    Valid 091200Z - 101200Z

    ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE BLACK
    HILLS INTO MID-MISSOURI/MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS AND PARTS OF THE
    SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES...CENTRAL/EASTERN MAINE...

    CORRECTED FOR TYPO

    ...SUMMARY...
    Thunderstorms with isolated severe wind gusts and hail will be
    possible Sunday afternoon and evening from parts of the central and
    northern Plains east-southeastward into the southern Great Lakes
    region. Additional strong to severe storms are possible in Maine.

    ...Black Hills into parts of the lower Great Lakes...
    Forecast uncertainty remains high. A moderate to strong low-level
    jet is forecast to persist into early Sunday morning. This feature
    will generally be focused into the Mid-Mississippi Valley region. It
    is probable that some convection will be ongoing during the early
    morning with some risk for large hail and possibly isolated damaging
    winds. While the low-level jet will weaken to some extent into the
    mid/late morning, modest 850 mb theta-e advection will continue and
    may promote stronger development along the outflow from this early
    activity. Steep mid-level lapse rates and 40-50 kt of effective
    shear on the western flank of the outflow would favor severe storms.
    Similar to Saturday, additional storms could form as the low-level
    jet intensifies Sunday night. Large hail would be the most likely
    hazard as these storms would tend to be slightly elevated.

    Farther west, storm development is much more uncertain. Warm
    temperatures aloft will lead to capping within the Plains. A surface
    low is forecast to develop which may provide local enhancement to
    convergence, but the location and strength of this feature varies
    model to model. Mid-level ascent will be subtle at best. The ECMWF
    is the most aggressive with afternoon development. That solution
    suggests development near the surface low/Black Hills with a
    southeastward moving complex. While an increase in probabilities
    would be needed in this scenario, confidence is not high.

    ...Maine...
    Moderate mid-level winds will continue across much of the Northeast.
    Ahead of a cold front, upper 60s to low 70s F dewpoints will support
    1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE. Shear will be modest, but hodographs will be
    long. A few marginal supercell structures are possible with an
    accompanying risk for isolated wind damage and marginal hail.

    ..Wendt.. 08/07/2026

    $$

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    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)
  • From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sat Aug 8 07:21:48 2026
    ACUS03 KWNS 080721
    SWODY3
    SPC AC 080720

    Day 3 Convective Outlook
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0220 AM CDT Sat Aug 08 2026

    Valid 101200Z - 111200Z

    ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF
    NORTHERN ILLINOIS EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD INTO WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA...

    ...SUMMARY...
    Thunderstorms with severe wind gusts will be possible on Monday from
    parts of northern Illinois eastward into western Pennsylvania.
    Isolated severe gusts will also be possible from parts of the
    central and northern Plains into the Midwest.

    ...Southern Great Lakes...
    A mid-level shortwave trough will move into the Great Lakes region
    on Monday. At the surface, a quasi-stationary front is forecast to
    be located from northern Illinois eastward into northwestern
    Pennsylvania. Surface dewpoints to the south of the front are
    forecast to be in the 70s F, which will contribute to moderate
    destabilization by midday. Scattered thunderstorms appear likely to
    develop near the front by early afternoon, with the storms moving
    southeastward into the unstable air. To the south of the front,
    MLCAPE is forecast to peak in the 2000 to 3000 J/kg range. In
    addition, the models show moderate deep-layer shear in place which
    will most likely support a mixed mode, with supercells and short
    intense line segments capable of severe wind gusts. The severe
    threat could continue into the mid to late evening if a cold pool
    can become established and persist.

    ...Central and Northern Plains/Midwest...
    West-northwesterly mid-level flow will be in place over much of the north-central U.S. on Monday. At the surface, a low is forecast to
    deepen over South Dakota as a cold front moves through the northern
    Plains. To the south of the front, an axis of strong instability
    appears likely to develop by afternoon from northern Nebraska
    eastward into Iowa, where model forecasts suggest that MLCAPE could
    peak in the in the 3500 to 4500 J/kg range. In addition, forecast
    soundings show directional shear in the low to mid-levels, which
    will contribute to moderate deep-layer shear over much of the moist
    sector. This environment should support an isolated severe threat
    during the late afternoon and early evening. Due to relatively weak
    large-scale ascent, convective coverage is expected to be isolated,
    with any severe threat remaining localized.

    ..Broyles.. 08/08/2026

    $$

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    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)
  • From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sat Aug 8 19:32:20 2026
    ACUS03 KWNS 081932
    SWODY3
    SPC AC 081931

    Day 3 Convective Outlook
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0231 PM CDT Sat Aug 08 2026

    Valid 101200Z - 111200Z

    ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM ILLINOIS
    EASTWARD INTO PENNSYLVANIA...

    ...SUMMARY...
    Thunderstorms with severe wind gusts will be possible on Monday from
    northern Illinois eastward into western Pennsylvania. Isolated
    severe gusts and hail will also be possible from parts of the
    central and northern Plains into the Midwest.

    ...Midwest / OH Valley / Mid Atlantic...
    An elongated zone of damaging wind potential will exist on Monday
    from Illinois to the Mid Atlantic, with various clusters of storms
    throughout the period.

    Earlier in the day, it appears ongoing activity may be present
    around OH, with moderate 40+ kt midlevel westerlies pushing the
    activity toward the Mid Atlantic during the afternoon. There, it
    could encounter the destabilizing air mass, with possible new
    development and/or rejuvenation with damaging gust potential.

    Farther west, a large area of strong instability is forecast across
    the Midwest, with an east-west oriented boundary roughly from IA
    across northern IL/IN/OH. Parts of this boundary may be
    re-positioned depending on the extent of early day outflows.

    West to southwest 850 mb winds over 30 kt should help maintain
    low-level moisture/heat flux into the frontal zone, with new
    development most likely across the Slight Risk area from northern IL
    into OH. Corridors of damaging winds will be possible with the
    resulting clusters or MCS, possibly affecting northern KY into WV. Predictability remains fairly low or this pattern.

    ...Northern Plains...
    Low pressure is forecast to develop over the central Plain, while
    moisture and backed surface winds persist generally north of I-80.
    Strong heating and surface convergence should support afternoon
    development over western SD, and perhaps elevated storms later over
    ND. Isolated severe gusts or hail will be possible over SD and
    vicinity, perhaps into northern NE and western IA overnight. A
    targeted Slight Risk may be needed in later updates as
    predictability increases.

    ..Jewell.. 08/08/2026

    $$

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    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)
  • From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sun Aug 9 07:25:52 2026
    ACUS03 KWNS 090725
    SWODY3
    SPC AC 090724

    Day 3 Convective Outlook
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0224 AM CDT Sun Aug 09 2026

    Valid 111200Z - 121200Z

    ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
    THE OHIO VALLEY AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...

    ...SUMMARY...
    Thunderstorms with severe wind gusts will be possible on Tuesday
    over parts of the Ohio Valley and central Appalachians. Isolated
    severe gusts and hail will also be possible from parts of the
    central and northern Plains into the Midwest.

    ...Ohio Valley/Central Appalachians....
    At mid-levels, west-northwesterly flow will be in place on Tuesday
    from the northern Plains to the central and northern Appalachians.
    Along the southern edge of the stronger mid-level flow, a
    west-northwest to east-southeast corridor of moderate to strong
    instability is forecast to develop by afternoon. It appears that an
    outflow boundary from the previous day's storms will be located from approximately north-central Illinois east-southeastward into
    southern Ohio. Low-level convergence along this boundary will be a
    focus for convective initiation. In the afternoon, thunderstorms are
    expected to develop near the boundary and move east-southeastward
    into the stronger instability over the Ohio Valley. A cluster of
    strong to severe storms is expected, and MCS development will be
    possible across the region.

    Instability is forecast to be similar to the previous day, with
    MLCAPE peaking in the 2000 to 3500 J/kg range. According to the
    ECMWF, deep-layer shear may be a bit stronger with 0-6 km shear in
    the 30 to 40 knot range. This would support supercells and short
    intense line segments capable of severe wind gusts. The wind-damage
    threat would become maximized if a cold pool can develop during the
    late afternoon and early evening. The current thinking is that the
    ECMWF has a better handle on where the outflow boundary will be than
    other solutions, and the Slight Risk area has been placed favoring
    the ECMWF scenario.

    ...Central and Northern Plains/Midwest...
    West-northwesterly mid-level flow will remain over the north-central
    U.S. on Tuesday. At the surface, dewpoints in the 60s and 70s F from
    South Dakota and Nebraska eastward into Iowa will contribute to
    strong destabilization by afternoon. MLCAPE is forecast to peak
    above 4000 J/kg along parts of the moist axis by late afternoon. In
    spite of the instability, large-scale ascent is forecast to remain
    relatively weak. Isolated to scattered storms could still develop
    along zones of low-level convergence. The strong instability along
    with moderate deep-layer shear should support an isolated severe
    threat from mid afternoon to mid evening. Severe wind gusts and hail
    will be the primary threats. Due to the weak forcing, there is some
    uncertainty as to where the greatest convective coverage will be.

    ..Broyles.. 08/09/2026

    $$

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    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)
  • From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sun Aug 9 19:35:06 2026
    ACUS03 KWNS 091934
    SWODY3
    SPC AC 091933

    Day 3 Convective Outlook
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0233 PM CDT Sun Aug 09 2026

    Valid 111200Z - 121200Z

    ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM ILLINOIS TO
    THE APPALACHIANS...

    ...SUMMARY...
    Thunderstorms with severe wind gusts will be possible on Tuesday
    over parts of the Ohio Valley and central Appalachians. Isolated
    severe gusts and hail will also be possible from parts of the
    central and northern Plains into the Midwest.

    ...From IL into western VA/NC...
    Bouts of strong to severe thunderstorms are expected Tuesday, though
    timing and position of the greatest threat corridor is uncertain.
    Areas of thunderstorms may be ongoing early on Tuesday across parts
    of the OH Valley region, and strong gusts cannot be ruled out at
    that time. Daytime heating and a weak surface trough may aid
    re-development across the Appalachians and into VA/NC, with
    deep-layer mean winds supporting mobile clusters of storms producing
    damaging gusts.

    Late afternoon and evening development should occur farther west as west/southwest boundary layer winds maintain a warm and unstable air
    mass into IL/IN/OH. The greatest threat of a damaging wind corridor
    appears to be in these areas, with MUCAPE over 3000 J/kg, and
    potentially 40-50 kt deep-layer shear. Depending on how mesoscale
    factors resolve, supercells will be possible, but the primary risk
    is expected to be potentially widespread damaging winds.
    Predictability is currently low, but categorical risk upgrades
    cannot be ruled out in later outlooks.

    ...Northern Plains...
    Storms are expected to develop late in the day over the western
    Dakotas near a surface trough over the High Plains. Southeasterly
    surface winds and 60s F dewpoints will yield moderate instability,
    and favorable 40-50 kt deep layer shear. The elongated mid to upper
    hodographs should aid supercell and hail potential, with bowing
    structures producing damaging wind during the evening.

    ...AZ...
    An easterly flow regime will persist on Tuesday, with scattered
    afternoon storms over the higher terrain moving generally westward.
    Locally damaging gusts may occur with the stronger outflows.

    ..Jewell.. 08/09/2026

    $$

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    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)
  • From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Mon Aug 10 07:32:06 2026
    ACUS03 KWNS 100731
    SWODY3
    SPC AC 100730

    Day 3 Convective Outlook
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0230 AM CDT Mon Aug 10 2026

    Valid 121200Z - 131200Z

    ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
    THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...

    ...SUMMARY...
    Thunderstorms with severe wind gusts and hail will be possible
    Wednesday afternoon and evening across parts of the central and
    northern High Plains. Isolated severe wind gusts will also be
    possible from parts of the mid Missouri Valley east-southeastward
    into the southern Appalachians.

    ...Central and Northern Plains...
    West-northwesterly mid-level flow will be in place on Wednesday from
    the northern Plains into the Great Lakes. Within the flow, a subtle
    shortwave trough is forecast to move into the central and northern
    High plains during the afternoon. At the surface, a cold front is
    forecast to move southward in the central Plains, with a lee trough
    located in the High Plains. During the day, upslope flow will help
    low-level convergence to become maximized along the lee trough,
    which will the primary focus for convective initiation Wednesday
    afternoon. Thunderstorms are expected to form near the trough and
    move eastward across the central and northern High Plains during the
    late afternoon and early evening.

    Along the western edge of the moist airmass, surface dewpoints are
    forecast to be mostly in the 60s F, which should result in moderate
    instability by afternoon. Late afternoon forecast soundings from
    North Platte, Nebraska northward to east of Rapid City, South Dakota
    have 0-6 km shear in the 35 to 45 knot range with low to mid-level
    lapse rates near 8 C/km. This will support a supercell threat during
    the late afternoon and early evening. Supercells will be capable of
    severe wind gusts and isolated large hail.

    ...Mid Missouri and Mid Mississippi Valley/Ohio Valley/Southern
    Appalachians...
    Mid-level northwesterly flow will be in place on Wednesday from the
    Mid Missouri Valley into the Ohio Valley. At the surface, a very
    moist airmass will also be in place over this same area. Surface
    dewpoints in the 70s F will contribute to moderate to strong
    instability by afternoon. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will
    be possible near outflow boundaries as low-level convergence becomes
    maximized in the afternoon. Across much of this moist and unstable
    airmass, moderate deep-layer shear will be in place supporting an
    isolated wind-damage threat. The wind-damage threat should be
    greatest in the late afternoon and early evening as low-level lapse
    rates become steep.

    ..Broyles.. 08/10/2026

    $$

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  • From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Mon Aug 10 19:32:12 2026
    ACUS03 KWNS 101931
    SWODY3
    SPC AC 101930

    Day 3 Convective Outlook
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0230 PM CDT Mon Aug 10 2026

    Valid 121200Z - 131200Z

    ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CENTRAL
    HIGH PLAINS...

    ...SUMMARY...
    Thunderstorms with severe wind gusts and hail will be possible
    Wednesday afternoon and evening across parts of the central and
    northern High Plains. Areas of severe wind gusts will also be
    possible over a large area from mid Missouri Valley southeastward
    into the Carolinas.

    ...Northern High Plains...
    Modest westerly winds aloft will exist over the central High Plains
    on Wednesday, with a surface low developing near the CO/KS border.
    Easterly surface winds north of the low across NE will maintain
    moisture and instability into the High Plains, and, maximize
    directional shear with height. Storms will form over the High Plains
    and move eastward through the evening. Hail may occur initially,
    with damaging gusts possible during the evening. Capping will become
    a concern with eastward extend across NE, but the 40 kt low-level
    jet may aid longevity.

    ...From IA to NC...
    Substantial uncertainty exists on Wednesday due to likely areas of
    ongoing storms and impacts on daytime redevelopment. That said, the
    northwest flow regime aloft will persist across the Midwest and
    extending across the Appalachians, with an embedded shortwave trough
    moving southeastward toward the OH Valley. This may help focus an
    areas of storms across parts of IN/OH/KY. However, areas of early
    day storms are also likely across parts of the region, which will
    have an impact on severe potential. As such, will maintain a broad
    5% Marginal Risk for damaging wind gusts.

    ..Jewell.. 08/10/2026

    $$

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  • From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Tue Aug 11 07:32:20 2026
    ACUS03 KWNS 110732
    SWODY3
    SPC AC 110730

    Day 3 Convective Outlook
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0230 AM CDT Tue Aug 11 2026

    Valid 131200Z - 141200Z

    ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL
    HIGH PLAINS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY...

    ...SUMMARY...
    Isolated severe storms are possible on Thursday from the central
    High Plains into the Ohio Valley.

    ...Central High Plains eastward to the Ohio Valley...
    Elevated convection and possibly a remnant MCS may be ongoing at the
    start of the forecast period across parts of IA/northern MO into IL,
    aided by a southwesterly low-level jet. Large-scale support for this
    convection is generally forecast to weaken through the day, though
    any remnant storm cluster or MCV may become the focus for afternoon intensification and wind-damage potential into parts of the Ohio
    Valley, if it is well-timed with downstream diurnal destabilization.

    Otherwise, moderate to strong destabilization will again be possible
    from parts of the Midwest into the central Plains, in the vicinity
    of a frontal zone. The position of the frontal zone is uncertain due
    to the influence of antecedent Day 1-2 convection, and large-scale
    ascent appears nebulous at best for much of the day within a regime
    of weak midlevel height rises. Isolated storm development cannot be
    ruled out near the front through early evening, with somewhat
    greater coverage possible across parts of the central High Plains
    and adjacent higher terrain. Low-level warm advection may allow for
    an increase in storm coverage into late evening near the front,
    though the later activity would likely be somewhat elevated.

    Deep-layer shear will generally be somewhat weaker than previous
    days, but still sufficient for some storm organization where deep
    convection can be sustained. A broad 5% area has been included in
    the anticipated vicinity of the frontal zone, though confidence in
    the details of storm development and evolution remains rather low.

    ...Parts of the Great Lakes and Northeast...
    Moderate to strong west-northwesterly mid/upper-level flow will
    overspread parts of the Great Lakes and Northeast on Thursday, in
    association with a seasonably deep upper trough extending from
    eastern Canada into the northeast CONUS. Guidance varies
    considerably regarding the extent (if any) of destabilization across
    this region during the afternoon. Probabilities may eventually be
    needed for parts of this region, if confidence increases regarding
    sufficient destabilization in association with the strengthening
    wind fields.

    ..Dean.. 08/11/2026

    $$

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  • From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Tue Aug 11 19:34:22 2026
    ACUS03 KWNS 111934
    SWODY3
    SPC AC 111932

    Day 3 Convective Outlook
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0232 PM CDT Tue Aug 11 2026

    Valid 131200Z - 141200Z

    ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE FRONT
    RANGE INTO THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY...

    ...SUMMARY...
    Isolated severe storms are possible on Thursday from the central
    High Plains into the Ohio Valley.

    ...Central Plains into Middle Ohio Valley...
    Moderate to strong destabilization near and south of the surface
    boundary appears possible by the afternoon. Deep-layer shear will be
    stronger with eastern extent, but still mostly along and to the
    north of the boundary. Given this flow orientation, convection will
    likely tend to train along the front. Isolated strong gusts and wind
    damage are the main concern, particularly with any clusters that can
    develop and move into more buoyant air south of the boundary.
    Additional storm development is probable as the low-level jet
    intensifies during the evening, though storms will be more elevated
    by that point.

    ...Front Range...
    Moist easterly flow into the higher terrain will promote scattered
    storm development during the afternoon, perhaps aided by a subtle
    shortwave perturbation. While cloud cover may temper surface
    heating, steep mid-level lapse rates will allow for 1500-2000 J/kg
    MLCAPE. Deep-layer shear will be marginal, but a few strong to
    marginally severe storms may produce isolated severe winds and hail.

    ...Northeast...
    Wind fields aloft will strengthen as a mid-level jet crosses over
    the region on Thursday. Despite long hodographs, drier conditions
    (50s F dewpoints with perhaps pockets of low 60s F) will limit
    destabilization along with weak to modest mid-level lapse rates. A
    few stronger gusts and small hail could occur with the stronger
    activity, but severe-caliber potential still appears low.

    ..Wendt.. 08/11/2026

    $$

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    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)
  • From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Wed Aug 12 07:38:32 2026
    ACUS03 KWNS 120738
    SWODY3
    SPC AC 120737

    Day 3 Convective Outlook
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0237 AM CDT Wed Aug 12 2026

    Valid 141200Z - 151200Z

    ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CO
    FRONT RANGE AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS EASTWARD INTO THE MIDWEST AND
    OHIO VALLEY...

    ...SUMMARY...
    Isolated strong to severe storms are possible from the central High
    Plains into parts of the Midwest.

    ...Synopsis...
    A broad upper trough will remain in place across the West on Friday,
    while an upper ridge will continue to gradually build from the lower
    MS Valley into the Midwest. A seasonably deep mid/upper trough will
    remain in place over the Northeast. A broad surface low is expected
    to remain in place over the south-central High Plains. A frontal
    zone that initially extends generally eastward from the low toward
    the Midwest and Ohio Valley may tend to lift northward by later in
    the period, though its position will continue to be influenced by
    antecedent and ongoing convection.

    ...Midwest/Ohio Valley...
    Storms may be ongoing Friday morning across parts of the Midwest.
    This convection will likely be elevated to the north of the frontal
    zone, but moderate to strong MUCAPE and sufficient deep-layer shear
    could support an isolated severe threat with the strongest early-day
    storms.

    Evolution of the front and additional storm development later in the
    day remains quite uncertain. The environment may remain capped along
    and to the warm side of the front, but additional elevated
    convection may develop during the evening, within a modest
    warm-advection regime. While deep-layer shear and lapse rates will
    likely be weaker compared to previous days, substantial buoyancy
    near/north of the frontal zone could still support potential for
    isolated hail and damaging winds.

    ...CO Front Range into the High Plains...
    Similar to D2/Thursday, moist low-level easterly flow to the north
    of the surface low and front will support moderate destabilization
    across parts of the CO Front Range and adjacent High Plains. Modest
    lapse rates and only marginally favorable deep-layer shear should
    limit a more organized threat, but cells capable of isolated hail
    and localized severe gusts will be possible by late afternoon, with
    some modest outflow-driven clustering possible. Farther south,
    high-based convection may develop across the south-central High
    Plains and pose localized downburst potential.

    ...Carolinas/VA...
    Modest midlevel northwesterly flow will overspread parts of the
    Carolinas and Virginia on Friday, though guidance varies
    considerably regarding the magnitude of diurnal destabilization
    across this region. Somewhat organized wind-damage potential could
    evolve if sufficient destabilization occurs, but confidence is too
    low for probabilities at this time.

    ..Dean.. 08/12/2026

    $$

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    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)
  • From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Wed Aug 12 19:26:36 2026
    ACUS03 KWNS 121926
    SWODY3
    SPC AC 121925

    Day 3 Convective Outlook
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0225 PM CDT Wed Aug 12 2026

    Valid 141200Z - 151200Z

    ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE FRONT
    RANGE INTO THE MIDWEST...OHIO VALLEY...AND MID-ATLANTIC...

    ...SUMMARY...
    Isolated strong to severe storms are possible from the central High
    Plains into parts of the Midwest and Mid-Atlantic on Friday.

    ...Midwest/Ohio Valley...
    Convection is expected to be ongoing during the early morning in
    parts of these regions. While these storms will be elevated,
    sufficient buoyancy/shear will promote an isolated severe risk with
    the strongest storms. Whether afternoon destabilization is enough to
    promote additional storm development is not clear. An MCV will
    likely be moving into Iowa/Missouri out of the central Plains. This
    may help develop afternoon storms in the mid-Mississippi Valley
    vicinity. Later in the evening, a strengthening low-level jet should
    lead to scattered convection along the boundary. These storms will
    again be elevated but still pose some severe risk.

    ...Front Range into central High Plains...
    A similar setup to Thursday will be present on Friday. Low-level
    moisture will be maintained up against the higher terrain. Scattered
    convection is expected during the afternoon with some activity
    eventually moving into the High Plains. Shear will remain rather
    modest, but the strongest storms could produce isolated wind/hail.
    There is some potential for a more organized cluster to move
    eastward during the evening. The structure/location of the low-level
    jet varies in model guidance (the NAM focuses the jet core farther
    west) which makes this potential uncertain.

    ...Virginia into northern North Carolina...
    An MCV associated with convection in the upper Ohio Valley will move
    into parts of the Mid-Atlantic during the afternoon. This feature
    combined with moderate mid-level flow within the base of the
    Northeast upper trough will allow for a few organized storms. Both
    the NAM/ECMWF suggest sufficient destabilization will occur south of
    the stationary surface boundary. Wind damage would be the main
    hazard with the strongest storms.

    ..Wendt.. 08/12/2026

    $$

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    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)
  • From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Thu Aug 13 07:30:40 2026
    ACUS03 KWNS 130730
    SWODY3
    SPC AC 130729

    Day 3 Convective Outlook
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0229 AM CDT Thu Aug 13 2026

    Valid 151200Z - 161200Z

    ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL
    HIGH PLAINS INTO PARTS OF THE MIDWEST AND OHIO
    VALLEY...SOUTHERN/CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...AND CAROLINAS...

    ...SUMMARY...
    Strong to locally severe storms are possible on Saturday from the
    central High Plains eastward into parts of the Midwest, Ohio Valley, southern/central Appalachians, and Carolinas.

    ...Synopsis...
    An upper ridge is forecast to remain anchored over parts of the
    southern Plains and lower MS Valley vicinity on Saturday. A
    warm-frontal zone initially extending from IA into the OH Valley is
    forecast to move northward as a warm front, while the western
    extension of this front may remain nearly stationary across the
    central Plains. Farther north, a weak surface low is forecast to
    move across northern MN, as a trailing cold front begins to move
    southeastward across parts of the Dakotas and eventually into parts
    of MN/IA/NE.

    ...Central High Plains eastward into parts of the Midwest/Ohio
    Valley...
    Another day of at least isolated severe potential is evident on
    Saturday along the periphery of the upper ridge. However,
    predictability is typically low regarding the details within this
    regime, and generally modest midlevel lapse rates and deep-layer
    shear may tend to limit the magnitude of severe potential. A broad Level-1/Marginal Risk has been included where the greatest relative
    severe potential is currently expected, though confidence in the
    details is low.

    Despite the relatively modest lapse rates, rich low-level moisture
    will again support moderate to strong buoyancy near and north of the
    front extending from the central High Plains into parts of the
    Midwest/Ohio Valley. Given the generally modest deep-layer
    flow/shear and nebulous large-scale ascent, any greater organized
    severe potential may be dependent on optimally timed MCVs moving
    along the periphery of the ridge.

    Early-day convection across IA/MO may pose some severe threat,
    especially if any storm cluster is able to propagate along the
    frontal zone into parts of the OH Valley. Some guidance suggests
    that an MCV may develop across the central High Plains late
    D2/Friday and move east-northeastward across parts of NE/IA/southern
    MN through the day Saturday, which may aid in storm development
    near/north of the front during the afternoon/evening.

    Farther west, diurnal storm development is again expected in the CO
    Front Range vicinity, which could result in some storm clustering as
    convection moves across the central High Plains Saturday night.
    Given the favorable low-level moisture and buoyancy, the strongest
    storms within any of these regimes could pose a threat for damaging
    winds and perhaps isolated hail, though it is also possible that the
    bulk of convection remains somewhat disorganized, due to relatively
    weak deep-layer flow/shear.

    ...Southern/central Appalachians and Carolinas...
    Modest northwesterly mid/upper-level flow will overspread a moist
    and moderately unstable environment across parts of the
    southern/central Appalachians and Carolinas during the afternoon. A
    few stronger cells/clusters capable of damaging wind will be
    possible within this regime.

    ..Dean.. 08/13/2026

    $$

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  • From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Thu Aug 13 19:39:18 2026
    ACUS03 KWNS 131939
    SWODY3
    SPC AC 131937

    Day 3 Convective Outlook
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0237 PM CDT Thu Aug 13 2026

    Valid 151200Z - 161200Z

    ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL
    HIGH PLAINS INTO THE MIDWEST...PARTS OF THE OHIO VALLEY...AND
    SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...

    ...SUMMARY...
    Strong to locally severe storms are possible on Saturday from the
    central High Plains eastward into parts of the Midwest, Ohio Valley, southern/central Appalachians, and Carolinas.

    ...Central High Plains eastward into parts of the Midwest/Ohio
    Valley...
    Two MCV features are forecast with one within the central Plains and
    another near southern Lake Michigan early on Saturday. These MCVs
    will interact with a moist airmass north of surface boundary. While
    the MCV moving into the Mid-Missouri Valley be moving into areas
    that will have been affected by the lead MCV. Destabilization during
    the afternoon in Iowa/Illinois is not certain, but a few strong to
    marginally severe storms could develop.

    Depending on the evolution/track of the lead MCV, destabilization
    within parts of the Ohio Valley appear more probable. The main
    questions continue to be early precipitation/cloud cover and where
    the MCV will track relative to the greater buoyancy. A corridor of
    greater severe potential could develop in parts of eastern Indiana
    into Ohio, though confidence is still low at this time.

    ...Colorado Front Range...
    A moist airmass will remain near the higher terrain. Scattered
    convection is again possible from the Front Range into parts of the
    adjacent Plains. Deep-layer shear will still not be very strong.
    While convection may be somewhat disorganized, the strongest storms
    could produce hail and isolated severe winds.

    ...Southern Appalachians...
    Given the moist airmass, scattered storm development within the
    higher terrain is possible. Modest northwesterly flow aloft may
    allow a few strong to marginally severe storms to move off of the
    terrain and pose a threat of wind damage.

    ..Wendt.. 08/13/2026

    $$

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    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)
  • From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Fri Aug 14 06:38:48 2026
    ACUS03 KWNS 140638
    SWODY3
    SPC AC 140637

    Day 3 Convective Outlook
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0137 AM CDT Fri Aug 14 2026

    Valid 161200Z - 171200Z

    ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE
    MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE MID-ATLANTIC...AND ACROSS PORTIONS OF
    THE HIGH PLAINS...

    ...SUMMARY...
    Strong to severe storms are possible from the Mid-Mississippi Valley
    to the Mid-Atlantic, and across the High Plains Sunday afternoon and
    evening.

    ...Mid-MS Valley to Mid-Atlantic...

    An upper trough will modestly deepen over the Great Lakes and
    Northeast on Sunday, resulting in weak mid/upper height falls.
    Moderate westerly flow aloft will overspread a seasonally moist
    airmass as a surface front sags southward across the Midwest and the Northeast/Mid-Atlantic regions through the period. At least a couple
    MCVs may be located within this broader region of enhanced westerly
    flow from the Mid-MS Valley to the Northeast. These features, along
    with the southward-moving surface front will be a focus for
    scattered thunderstorm development during the afternoon and evening.
    While details remain uncertain, the overall kinematic and
    thermodynamic parameter space will support strong to severe storms,
    mainly capable of damaging wind gusts.

    ..High Plains...

    Moist upslope flow will once again support isolated to scattered
    thunderstorm development across the High Plains on Sunday. Upper 50s
    to low 60s F dewpoints will result in moderate destabilization. Flow
    through around 500 mb will remain weak, but vertically veering wind
    profiles, and westerlies increasing with height above 500 mb will
    support effective shear magnitudes greater than 30 kt and
    elongated/straight hodographs are evident in forecast soundings.
    Isolated strong to severe storms mainly capable of producing large
    hail will be possible.

    ..Leitman.. 08/14/2026

    $$

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    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)