ACUS11 KWNS 111758
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 111757
OHZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-112000-

Mesoscale Discussion 1926
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1257 PM CDT Tue Aug 11 2026

Areas affected...central into southeast Indiana...southwest
Ohio...and potentially into far northern Kentucky

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 565...567...

Valid 111757Z - 112000Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 565, 567
continues.

SUMMARY...A corridor of more widespread damaging winds with
significant gusts up to 70-80 mph appears to be evolving from
central through southeast Indiana into southwest Ohio and far
northern Kentucky. An additional downstream watch or watch extension
may become necessary.

DISCUSSION...Recent KIND base velocity data suggest a strengthening
cold pool with ongoing storms over Boone, Hamilton, and Madison
Counties, to the north of the Indianapolis metropolitan area. That
convection is located near an outflow/warm front composite boundary
that has become better defined early this afternoon from central
into southeast IN. The air mass to the west of the boundary
continues to destabilize with latest objective analysis indicating
MLCAPE as high as 3000 J/kg. While low-level lapse rates remain
somewhat marginal, continued daytime heating ahead of the ongoing
storms should support a steepening trend through the afternoon.

The current KIND VWP is sampling largely westerly deep-layer flow
with 40-45 kt of deep-layer shear. While the shear vector
orientation is not ideally aligned with the ongoing storms as of
present, the upstream KLOT VWP suggests that the shear vector may
become more favorably oriented with time. When combined with the
destabilizing inflow air mass, the setup appears favorable for a
corridor of enhanced damaging wind potential focused along or just
to the north of the composite boundary.

..Mead.. 08/11/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!6Wydi9p_qzvvDSXuQT6YBNOglAe8ElbYJseeAbirv3bJPqzBVnUBUtXN-X5nRioqP1I1CRnllPpqVllcQ57eNDu7C_U$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ILN...IWX...IND...

LAT...LON 40228671 40618652 40668601 39938429 39268377 38748414
38658475 39818630 40228671

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)