ACUS11 KWNS 111840
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 111840
NYZ000-CTZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-112045-

Mesoscale Discussion 1928
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0140 PM CDT Tue Aug 11 2026

Areas affected...portions of eastern Pennsylvania into northern New
Jersey and far southern New York

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 111840Z - 112045Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Widely scattered thunderstorm development is expected this
afternoon from eastern Pennsylvania into northern New Jersey and far
southern New York. An isolated threat for damaging wind gusts may
accompany any stronger storms.

DISCUSSION...Developing/agitated cumulus are noted underneath an
upper-level cirrus canopy as of 1830 UTC via recent satellite
imagery. Aided by weak forcing for ascent associated with a subtle
mid-level perturbation progressing quickly eastward out of southern
Ontario, continued insolation to the south of a weak surface cold
front is expected to support isolated to widely scattered
thunderstorm development over the next 1-3 hours. Effective shear of
30-35 kts and around 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE will promote some
potential for a few stronger updrafts. Water-loaded downbursts
capable of isolated damaging wind gusts will be possible with these
more robust updrafts given modestly steep low-level lapse rates and
a corridor of locally greater PW (1.5-1.75"). An instance of
marginally severe hail also cannot be ruled out with any transient
supercell structure that can develop. Weak mid-level lapse rates
should largely temper overall convective intensity and severe
coverage, however. Thus, watch issuance is not anticipated at this
time.

..Chalmers/Hart.. 08/11/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!55a2SwaoRCMR7g5dsswSnOunVIng1ov49D5JPCWViF_bBV4Kn_ZIvWntftVbGiGt7iFDgBr83bjwZThmbB0qKm7vBQ4$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OKX...PHI...BGM...CTP...

LAT...LON 40117395 40317386 40507368 40577334 40677327 40897343
41167386 41407423 41857609 41807665 41547717 41137720
40557674 39937571 39757468 39837419 40117395

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


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* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)