ACUS11 KWNS 112042
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 112042
NCZ000-SCZ000-VAZ000-TNZ000-112245-

Mesoscale Discussion 1932
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0342 PM CDT Tue Aug 11 2026

Areas affected...portions of far northeastern Tennessee into western
and central North Carolina

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 112042Z - 112245Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Potential continues for isolated damaging wind gusts and
marginally severe hail. Watch issuance is not anticipated.

DISCUSSION...Widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms remain
ongoing along and south of a differential heating boundary/remnant
outflow from northeastern Tennessee into western/central North
Carolina. Weak effective shear (20 kts or less per latest objective
analysis) is largely limiting storm organization, but 2500-3000 J/kg
MLCAPE, modestly steep low-level lapse rates, and around 1.75" PW
continue to support water loaded downbursts capable of producing
isolated damaging wind gusts. Isolated instances of marginally
severe hail have also been reported with the most robust cores
within a zone of marginally steeper mid-level lapse rates (near 7
C/km). This potential is expected to continue for at least another
1-2 hours; however, watch issuance remains unlikely owing to the
weak effective shear and resultant pulse-severe storm mode.

..Chalmers/Hart.. 08/11/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!4DJ43ZmcJh8Gds-TPT6yhxnYAtlMvs33eLxEmGIYfWDi51wLMicUKvV7t_4F3pMlhAHOJT24ALoO0vW1D0iRVJ-n3co$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...RAH...RNK...GSP...MRX...

LAT...LON 35208125 35378201 35728253 36158269 36468249 36608190
36438096 36218024 36217975 36217921 36037891 35787882
35467911 35237975 35088086 35208125

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


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