ACUS11 KWNS 112143
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 112142
NEZ000-112345-

Mesoscale Discussion 1933
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0442 PM CDT Tue Aug 11 2026

Areas affected...Parts of the NE Panhandle into southwest NE

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 112142Z - 112345Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms which have developed on a weak surface
boundary this afternoon may pose an isolated threat for severe
hail/gusts. However, watch issuance is unlikely at this time.

DISCUSSION...21Z surface observations and recent visible satellite
imagery show a weak surface boundary draped from the NE Panhandle
into parts of southwest/south-central NE. While large-scale ascent
remains nebulous/weak across this region, modest low-level
convergence along the boundary has been sufficient for widely spaced thunderstorm development as convective temperatures have been
breached (surface temperatures in the mid 90s to low 100s).
Modifying the 18Z LBF sounding for current surface observations
suggest MLCIN has become minimal near this boundary, with ample
MLCAPE to support robust updrafts. Furthermore, modest low-level
winds veer to westerly and strengthen with height through mid-levels
(reference recent KLNX VWP), which will support sufficient
deep-layer shear for organized updrafts. Ongoing high-based
convection may pose a threat for both isolated severe hail and gusty
downdraft winds. Still, cooler surface temperatures to the east of
the boundary in NE suggest the presence of stronger MLCIN with
eastward extent, and it remains unclear whether additional
thunderstorms will develop/move off the boundary given nebulous
large-scale forcing. Therefore, expectations are for the overall
severe threat to remain fairly isolated, and watch issuance appears
unlikely at this time.

..Gleason/Mosier.. 08/11/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!5c1Q8MffkAUHu2e3Hu_pawSb_P6suTF0aGI-lbgrtWiLsBWRvpw9ZSQ1fncVM6UDmHZRA8tpkz8ofl2mg3EZ7Pg1s-Y$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...CYS...

LAT...LON 41790345 42200349 42240303 41760145 41309982 40839944
40579965 40670059 41480272 41790345

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)