ACUS11 KWNS 112248
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 112248
SDZ000-120015-

Mesoscale Discussion 1937
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0548 PM CDT Tue Aug 11 2026

Areas affected...Parts of western SD

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 569...

Valid 112248Z - 120015Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 569
continues.

SUMMARY...Intense supercells will remain capable of producing mainly
large to very large hail (up to 2-3.5 inches and diameter) this
evening as they track east-southeastward.

DISCUSSION...A supercell which developed over the Black Hills
earlier this afternoon strengthened and produced large hail up to
3.5 inches in diameter in southwest SD. Since then, additional
supercells have developed over far southeast MT into northwest SD,
and over the Black Hills. The environment across western SD remains
quite favorable for the maintenance for intense supercells this
evening, with strong instability and deep-layer shear both present.
These supercells are expected to generally track east-southeastward
while posing a threat for mainly large to very large hail up to
2.5-3.5 inches in diameter. Some risk for severe/damaging winds will
also exist with RFD surges with these intense cells.

..Gleason.. 08/11/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!6d9zxgP__9rs_kpiTfEIQxH8OfSNTrLnaI6xYT703BlOpeVcD530WWgwzJOZ-cKy8ZkABVGWuaSYtzYKo4VauskvtCU$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...UNR...

LAT...LON 45680402 45870388 45830328 45530270 43640213 43130210
43070322 43610392 44120403 45680402

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN


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--- scorpsmtpd
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