ACUS11 KWNS 112354
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 112354
NEZ000-120200-

Mesoscale Discussion 1938
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0654 PM CDT Tue Aug 11 2026

Areas affected...Parts of the NE Panhandle/western NE

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 112354Z - 120200Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...A large hail threat may continue with supercells across
parts of western Nebraska this evening. Watch issuance is possible.

DISCUSSION...A long-lived supercell that has a history of producing
large to very large hail across southwest SD is tracking
southeastward, and should move into parts of the NE
Panhandle/western NE in the next hour or so. Other convection is
also ongoing along and perhaps just east of a weak surface boundary
draped across western NE. Latest mesoanalysis estimates some
lingering MLCIN across this region, which is evidenced by updrafts
struggling to be sustained with southward extent in western NE.
Still, some risk for large hail may continue with the
well-established supercell moving southeastward out of southwest SD,
as deep-layer shear remains strong. Trends are being monitored for
possible watch issuance, with overall coverage of severe convection
remaining uncertain.

..Gleason/Mosier.. 08/11/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!51AgCYFXjU-YRtU6SaTO3DvAjgC6yRvyFhpfUaK8LgxW79Sy62FY_RRK7DhKHXUxxQCY06IVVqlFZqPAUfDWf7Zq2As$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...

LAT...LON 42930273 42940196 42070095 41359994 40789973 40610009
40850121 41220191 42180264 42930273

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


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