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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1940

    From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Wed Aug 12 00:59:22 2026
    ACUS11 KWNS 120059
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 120058
    NDZ000-SDZ000-120230-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1940
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0758 PM CDT Tue Aug 11 2026

    Areas affected...Parts of southwest/south-central ND into western SD

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 569...570...

    Valid 120058Z - 120230Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 569, 570
    continues.

    SUMMARY...Very large hail and severe gusts remain likely this
    evening with several ongoing supercells.

    DISCUSSION...Multiple intense supercells are present this evening
    across southwest ND and western SD. The 00Z observed sounding from
    UNR showed around 3500 J/kg of MLCAPE present to support these
    ongoing supercells, along with favorable deep layer shear of 45+ kt.
    Current expectations are that a threat for very large hail will
    continue this evening given the mainly discrete mode, presence of
    steep mid-level lapse rates, and favorable westerly shear vectors.
    The threat for severe gusts may also increase this evening,
    especially with an ongoing HP supercell transitioning to a small but
    intense bowing cluster with RFD surge evident in Butte/Meade
    Counties in western SD. This activity may tend to develop
    east-southeastward this evening into a very unstable airmass into
    parts of central SD, with 75+ mph gusts possible on an isolated
    basis. With Severe Thunderstorm Watch 569 in western SD scheduled to
    expire at 02Z, either a new watch or extension in time will likely
    be required within the next hour.

    ..Gleason/Mosier.. 08/12/2026

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!8wgAjkxq3ziI6GsIHDjQH2DYZKlJrquzT6eMnnGD8ilt__UEgJUXpnGaFe8cybWIw0hkPw131-1QS4-rAWkGzn3h5HM$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...ABR...BIS...UNR...

    LAT...LON 43110298 43730325 44740351 45660345 46780298 47090256
    46970128 46840068 46560032 46220028 46010068 45710193
    45150201 44790110 44020106 43540122 43260155 43090191
    43020222 43020263 43110298

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...75-90 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN


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    --- scorpsmtpd
    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)