ACUS11 KWNS 120339
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 120338
NDZ000-120515-

Mesoscale Discussion 1944
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1038 PM CDT Tue Aug 11 2026

Areas affected...Parts of south-central ND

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 570...

Valid 120338Z - 120515Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 570
continues.

SUMMARY...The greatest threat for severe hail/wind in the short term
should focus across a small part of south-central North Dakota,
including the Bismarck area.

DISCUSSION...A cluster of supercells is ongoing as of 0330Z across south-central ND, aided by a weak mid-level disturbance moving
southeastward across the northern Plains. Given favorable deep-layer
shear and enhanced (40-50+ kt) westerly flow at 6+ km AGL shown on
the latest VWP from KBIS, this activity will likely maintain
organization in the near term. Severe hail and damaging winds may
occur, with strong inbound velocities approaching the Bismarck area
on latest radar imagery. Very large hail up to 2 inches in diameter
has recently been reported with the strongest core. Longer-term
prospects for these supercells remain uncertain, as weaker
instability and stronger MLCIN are present with eastward/southward
extent into southeast ND and northern SD.

..Gleason.. 08/12/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!4jw7y2JMI1SQCCOTkCk51F7FP5jcNjJ9KH3QHfE26rN6BRVwardreq_Fy7ltkmL4y7nn6Dch6fhG-qBNqiFbmnSOphk$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BIS...

LAT...LON 46840163 47060063 46949954 46549922 46259954 46200027
46260102 46420159 46840163

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


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