ACUS11 KWNS 121230
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 121230
IAZ000-121430-

Mesoscale Discussion 1948
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0730 AM CDT Wed Aug 12 2026

Areas affected...parts of central/south central Iowa

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 573...

Valid 121230Z - 121430Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 573
continues.

SUMMARY...Thunderstorm activity spreading across the Missouri River
continues to generally weaken, but renewed intensifying thunderstorm development still appears possible near the I-80 corridor of central
Iowa through 9-11 AM CDT. If this occurs, it could pose a risk for
severe hail and damaging downbursts.

DISCUSSION...To the east through southeast of a remnant MCV,
2-hourly surface pressure rises on the order of 2-5+ mb have been
maintained, centered at 12Z in a corridor across and north-northeast
of Omaha NE into areas west of Carroll and Atlantic IA. Ahead of
this perturbation, deeper boundary layer moisture content
concentrated along a baroclinic zone in the 925-850 mb layer
continues to provide support for a narrow plume of sizable CAPE near
the I-80 corridor of central Iowa. So, renewed intensifying
thunderstorm development still does not appear out of the question
into and across the Des Moines area through mid morning. If this
occurs, a belt of convectively augmented westerly mid-level flow is contributing to sufficient shear to support organization, including
supercell structures with potential to produce severe hail and
locally strong downbursts.

..Kerr.. 08/12/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!7Gnm0jhhfOew6lKfZjlLoMX2KXSE8jCRxKchZOk71kQ2_3a0UaKntns1YapOdmWyKfm6XhFadQa3zi-7b7cZqytH1Cg$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DMX...

LAT...LON 42109433 42029254 41659238 41199253 40939268 40839335
40819392 40999487 41399483 42109433

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


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--- scorpsmtpd
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