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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1949

    From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Wed Aug 12 14:05:34 2026
    ACUS11 KWNS 121405
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 121404
    INZ000-ILZ000-IAZ000-121600-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1949
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0904 AM CDT Wed Aug 12 2026

    Areas affected...northern and central Illinois into western Indiana

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 574...

    Valid 121404Z - 121600Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 574
    continues.

    SUMMARY...Damaging winds with gusts up to 75 mph are expected to
    continue with an ongoing bow echo. The severe weather threat may
    develop east of the watch area by 1530Z, likely requiring a new
    severe thunderstorm watch.

    DISCUSSION...The northern extension of an MCS has sustained a bowing
    structure over northern IL with an eastward system motion of around
    40 kt. An outflow boundary associated with an area of thunderstorms
    farther east extends from the vicinity of the bow echo
    south-southeast through eastern IL into southwest IN. The presence
    of that boundary may result in the MCS turning more to the southeast
    over the next hour to two, fueled by a strongly unstable
    environment, per the 12Z DVN sounding.

    The current DVN VWP is sampling 35-50 kt west-northwesterly winds in
    the 1-6 km layer, which are oriented largely perpendicular to the
    bow, likely maintaining a robust rear-inflow jet. As such, damaging
    winds are expected to continue with gusts up to 75 mph possible as
    the system advances toward northwest and west-central IN.
    Extrapolation of the current motion takes it to the eastern edge of
    the watch by 1530Z, likely requiring an additional watch.

    ..Mead.. 08/12/2026

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!-lDWaebVC0XV1Yzw8t5egAKTofztvME1RYz0lNzIa0plC5-tbVN0CVHi2HflRCh9OjEkEomV1c0xQslTg6QgsYJFVq8$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...IWX...IND...LOT...ILX...DVN...

    LAT...LON 41909007 41758803 41268700 40498663 40088648 39578665
    39578722 39588774 39848855 40268968 40819028 41499046
    41909007

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


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    --- scorpsmtpd
    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)