ACUS11 KWNS 121632
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 121632
FLZ000-GAZ000-121900-

Mesoscale Discussion 1950
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1132 AM CDT Wed Aug 12 2026

Areas affected...southern Georgia into northeast Florida

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 121632Z - 121900Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...The potential for a few damaging wind gusts is expected to
increase this afternoon. A watch is not anticipated due to the
limited areal coverage of the threat.

DISCUSSION...Forcing for ascent within the southwest flank of an MCV
moving through the lower Savannah River Valley will combine with
broadly confluent low-level flow to yield scattered thunderstorms
this afternoon. Area VWPs indicate relatively weak vertical shear
across the region, which will limit the potential for storm
organization. However, the 12Z JAX sounding sampled the presence of
a very moist and strongly unstable air mass with MLCAPE of 3000-3500
J/kg. As such, the potential will exist for locally intense wet
microbursts capable of a few damaging wind gusts, especially if
storms can merge into clusters.

..Mead/Thompson.. 08/12/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!4phIBv4fkl4g7nca5hLKh9gb3iioi5EEce89TLD5SxljwbA1evxKaNhuzTihmsbODZ3nqOcVQHS8DSxabd-VJtfBLCk$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JAX...TAE...

LAT...LON 29798124 29938279 30628378 31058369 31128294 31188217
31098159 30628117 29798124

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH


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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)