ACUS11 KWNS 121711
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 121710
NYZ000-PAZ000-121915-

Mesoscale Discussion 1951
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1210 PM CDT Wed Aug 12 2026

Areas affected...portions of western New York into the Northern Tier
of Pennsylvania

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 121710Z - 121915Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms will pose an
isolated risk for large hail and damaging wind gusts this afternoon
from the Niagra Frontier into the Northern Tier of PA.

DISCUSSION...Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are ongoing
across southern Ontario and portions of the Niagra Frontier as of
1710 UTC, with this activity forecast to develop southeastward into
southern NY/northern PA through this afternoon. While surface
temperatures remain seasonably cool in the low-to-mid 70s F, surface
dewpoints in the low-to-mid 60s F and regionally steep mid-level
lapse rates of 6-7 C/km are supporting modest buoyancy, with 1000 to
locally 1500 J/kg MLCAPE indicated by recent objective analysis.
Concurrently, a mid/upper-level speed max will continue to shift
eastward from Lower Michigan into NY/PA through this afternoon and
evening. This enhanced mid/upper flow (sampled by the BUF VAD
profile and the 12 UTC BUF observed sounding) will continue to
promote effective shear of 30-40 kts and elongated hodographs
favorable for supercell structures. The primary risks associated
with this activity will be large hail and damaging wind gusts.
Current expectations are for convective coverage and the severe risk
to remain too isolated for watch issuance; however, a targeted
Severe Thunderstorm Watch could be considered should greater
storm/severe coverage prevail.

..Chalmers/Thompson.. 08/12/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!7bnnwE-cFfG4SMpqenLRwvOGz49DhrbTiTY4RNo4YuiHMxp6b9oxsy1SMBNP1MNfZ2mk2OBTFL5QS47oRHg64J-TAII$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BGM...BUF...CTP...

LAT...LON 43697757 43417687 43057616 42747564 42337523 41817503
41517536 41417608 41527786 41807890 42127939 42337959
42467962 42597947 42847929 43257934 43517927 43717871
43747817 43697757

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.
--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)