ACUS11 KWNS 121712
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 121712
INZ000-ILZ000-IAZ000-121815-

Mesoscale Discussion 1952
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1212 PM CDT Wed Aug 12 2026

Areas affected...central into southeast Illinois

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 574...

Valid 121712Z - 121815Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 574
continues.

SUMMARY...An isolated damaging wind threat may persist in the
remaining valid portion of the watch area through 18Z. Additional
severe storms appear possible this afternoon across parts of central
into southeast Illinois, potentially requiring a new watch.

DISCUSSION...Elevated thunderstorms forming atop of the morning MCS
cold pool have gradually consolidated into a cluster over portions
of Knox, Stark, and Peoria Counties in west-central IL as of 1705Z
with some earlier velocity enhancement noted in KDVN radar data.
Given the presence of fairly substantial convective inhibition for surface-based parcels, it remains uncertain whether a cold pool can
organize with that convection, which would signal some increase in
damaging wind potential.

Additional severe storms appear possible this afternoon along the
leading edge of the MCS gust front over central IL, where filtered
sunshine has allowed temperatures to warm into the mid 80s with
MLCAPE estimated in the 2000-3000 J/kg range, per latest objective
analysis. Should that scenario unfold, a new severe thunderstorm
watch would need to be considered for portions of central into
southeast IL.

..Mead.. 08/12/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!-u1ReQSjpP9yplcvem-atMwzHq3ZQPsoDJw0VwhJImp-Q16zbn7qw2cybKjznzjLZZOqe1852gmkJvYscEW-jptF5FM$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...IND...LOT...ILX...LSX...DVN...

LAT...LON 40489130 41079107 41309004 41268969 40438845 40138776
39668752 39328756 39078782 38928834 39048895 39749024
40279129 40489130

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


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