ACUS11 KWNS 121933
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 121933
NEZ000-COZ000-SDZ000-WYZ000-122130-

Mesoscale Discussion 1956
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0233 PM CDT Wed Aug 12 2026

Areas affected...portions of southeastern Wyoming into northeastern
Colorado and the Nebraska Panhandle

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely

Valid 121933Z - 122130Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Scattered, initially high-based thunderstorms are expected
to develop along and east of the Front Range over the next couple of
hours. These storms will evolve eastward through this evening,
bringing a threat for severe wind gusts and large hail.

DISCUSSION...Aided by forcing for ascent ahead of a mid-level
perturbation and along/ahead of a surface stationary/cold front,
scattered thunderstorm development is expected along the Front Range
from southeastern Wyoming into northern Colorado over the next 1-2
hours. Storms will be initially high-based given hot temperatures
and well-mixed boundary layer profiles (low-90s F temperatures amid
dewpoints in the mid-40s) ahead of the aforementioned surface
boundary. While effective shear around 35-40 kts will be sufficient
for supercell structures, high cloud bases (LCLs of 2+ km AGL) and
steep low-level lapse rates will favor efficient evaporative
cooling, downdraft formation, and upscale growth/clustering as
convection evolves eastward. Severe wind gusts (a few significant)
will be the main threat with this activity, but large to very large
hail is also expected, especially early in the convective cycle and
with any convection that is able to maintain a discrete mode. A
Severe Thunderstorm Watch will likely be needed for at least a
portion of the discussion area in the next 1-2 hours to cover these
threats.

..Chalmers/Thompson.. 08/12/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!-QsjI12rw3YCOrOyemhtwOsR97gqV5VvePL5QY2wwOIv9WoUmPeC_l5kQz65BIUJL49f_zKPMigdZoNXcpmfQ9r1iUk$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LBF...UNR...GLD...BOU...CYS...

LAT...LON 39980444 40550467 41750481 42560476 42960439 43050376
43050296 42820258 42080220 41200211 40260211 39670219
39380251 39180335 39300381 39500414 39980444

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


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