ACUS11 KWNS 122041
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 122041
AZZ000-NVZ000-CAZ000-122245-

Mesoscale Discussion 1957
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0341 PM CDT Wed Aug 12 2026

Areas affected...portions of the Low Desert of California and
Arizona into southern Nevada

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 122041Z - 122245Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Widely scattered, high-based thunderstorms will pose an
isolated risk for damaging wind gusts this afternoon.

DISCUSSION...Supported by ascent ahead of an upper-level low noted
in recent satellite imagery off of the central California coastline
and an enhanced, mid-level moisture plume downstream of this
feature, widely scattered thunderstorms have developed across
portions of southern NV into the Low Desert of CA/AZ as of 2030 UTC.
Modifying the 18 UTC VEF observed sounding for current surface
observations depicts steep low-level lapse rates, a well-mixed
boundary layer with LCLs around 3 km AGL, and ~1000 J/kg MLCAPE.
While effective shear and deep-layer flow remain weak (per the ESX
VWP), favorable thermodynamic profiles for evaporative cooling and
downdraft accelerations will promote a risk for damaging/severe wind
gusts across the region. Watch issuance is not anticipated, however,
owing to the expected isolated nature of the severe risk.

..Chalmers/Thompson.. 08/12/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!6pwXzkzGcMwhHC4CyTqtcQtw94UT8ZhlOLVXqUNpwn9l36P1wrpfTF-dMhHNKPRXeskp8qHkVYqm6ys4ws8jMibsZsk$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FGZ...PSR...VEF...

LAT...LON 32541558 33601573 34301568 35451538 36051504 36291462
36241407 35961367 35511334 34701322 34141333 33401377
32401433 32291449 32311470 32531505 32541558

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH


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