ACUS11 KWNS 122251
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 122251
SDZ000-NDZ000-130045-

Mesoscale Discussion 1960
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0551 PM CDT Wed Aug 12 2026

Areas affected...portions of south-central North Dakota into
north-central South Dakota

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 122251Z - 130045Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated supercells may pose a threat for large hail and
damaging wind over the next couple of hours.

DISCUSSION...Supercells have developed across portions of
south-central ND into north-central SD over the last hour. These
will pose a risk for a few isolated instances of large hail and
damaging wind this evening. These are occurring on the fringes of
better moisture that is located across central South Dakota into the
central Plains as large scale ascent overspreads the region. Though
moisture decreases with northern extent, strong deep layer shear may
support maintenance of an isolated supercell or two. Given the more
isolated nature of this threat, watch issuance is not anticipated
but trends will be monitored.

..Thornton/Hart.. 08/12/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!7nkRw6K29HW9EgksckZW4W3FFxX2LMtm2iDP8Tl4NMBNWiWMPyrmwAktIzmwOgR0c5Iv06B3VVSRyVWL5asN5AMDxC4$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FGF...ABR...BIS...

LAT...LON 45950114 45650087 45190031 44879946 45069783 45809722
46289736 46599801 46799969 46620077 46350123 45950114

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


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