ACUS11 KWNS 130007
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 130006
NEZ000-COZ000-130200-

Mesoscale Discussion 1961
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0706 PM CDT Wed Aug 12 2026

Areas affected...northeastern Colorado into western Nebraska and
southern South Dakota

Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely

Valid 130006Z - 130200Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Damaging wind potential may increase into the evening.

DISCUSSION...Several ongoing clusters of thunderstorms are evolving
this evening across northern Nebraska and northeastern Colorado.
Hi-res guidance trends have been fairly consistent run to run with
the notion that these will eventually interact downstream across western/central Nebraska later this evening. The environment across western/central Nebraska is conditionally favorable, with strong
MLCAPE around 2500-3000 J/kg and steep lapse rates throughout the
profile. The air mass across northwestern Nebraska is also very well
mixed, with temperatures in the 90s and dew points in the mid to
upper 50s providing large dew point depressions. This will promote
outflow dominate clusters with potential for damaging wind. Large
hail also remains a risk in the short term.

Should the clusters out of northern Nebraska and northeastern
Colorado be able to establish a cold pool and spread east, they will
have the potential for more widespread damaging wind potential (and
perhaps significant gusts 75+ mph). Trends in the 18-22z HRRR
guidance suggest this is a possibility. A downstream watch will be
needed in the next couple of hours to cover this potential.

..Thornton/Hart.. 08/13/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!6bOLjZCy6grWT3BcJlIytWjOptXRK_8UFdR9UwKfTz8AT-IkvMzrLhX18xDwrCrQsNKffZaI0AhK1O4Py72ZQHlZWqg$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LBF...GLD...BOU...CYS...

LAT...LON 42780098 42880121 42990155 42990214 42990260 42990306
42650349 41240332 40090308 40020293 40000201 40410060
41410045 42360061 42780098

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


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--- scorpsmtpd
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