ACUS11 KWNS 131925
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 131924
UTZ000-AZZ000-NVZ000-CAZ000-132130-

Mesoscale Discussion 1968
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0224 PM CDT Thu Aug 13 2026

Areas affected...portions of the Great Basin

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 131924Z - 132130Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Scattered to numerous thunderstorms will bring a risk for
isolated damaging/severe wind gusts and perhaps an instance or two
of marginally severe hail to portions of the Great Basin through
this evening.

DISCUSSION...Aided by ascent ahead of an upper-level trough centered
over California, thunderstorm development is ongoing across portions
of central and southern Nevada and along the Sierra Nevada Mountains
in eastern California. Strong diurnal heating, modestly cool
temperatures aloft, and surface dewpoints around 50 F are supporting
weak buoyancy, with 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE depicted by latest
objective analysis and the 18 UTC VEF observed sounding. As
thunderstorms evolve northeastward through this evening, steepening
low-level lapse rates and increasingly well-mixed boundary layer
profiles will promote evaporatively cooled downdrafts and cold pool
formation. In conjunction with modest effective shear of 20-25 kts,
this is expected to result in loosely organized convective clusters
and an isolated risk for damaging/severe wind gusts. An instance or
two of marginally severe hail also cannot be ruled out with the most
robust updrafts. Given the expectation for the severe risk to remain
limited in magnitude, watch issuance appears unlikely at this time.

..Chalmers/Guyer.. 08/13/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!52VNKMMz12mk37DuNvQRUY9AXqIAuXNW0tMU7AQSE7Wxnnx6pbJo4-LX7XZqw8xoy5MBYgi2jZrgtnqz2w5S45hL2k4$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...SLC...VEF...LKN...REV...

LAT...LON 37611884 38451943 39441984 39751987 40221967 40791872
40981771 40961676 40301563 38761418 37741342 36851322
36121380 35781489 35711568 36751759 37071809 37611884

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


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