ACUS11 KWNS 131957
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 131957
KSZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-132200-

Mesoscale Discussion 1969
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0257 PM CDT Thu Aug 13 2026

Areas affected...portions of the Texas/Oklahoma Panhandles into
northwest Oklahoma and southwest Kansas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 131957Z - 132200Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...High-based thunderstorms will develop across portions of
the central High/Great Plains this afternoon and bring a risk for
isolated severe wind gusts.

DISCUSSION...Latest visible satellite imagery depicts a deepening
cumulus field within a plume of very steep low-level lapse rates of
10+ C/km (per latest objective analysis) across portions of the
TX/OK Panhandles to the south of a frontal system analyzed across
CO/KS. Recent observations indicate this air mass has warmed into
the low 100s F with dewpoints ranging from the mid-50s (Panhandles)
to mid-60s F (Kansas). Regional 18z observed soundings from AMA/DDC
sampled this environment and depicted deep, increasingly well-mixed
boundary layer profiles with weak deep-layer flow/shear (less than
10-15 kts). While this will generally limit the organization
developing, high-based convection, efficient evaporative cooling and
cold pool formation will foster a risk for at least isolated severe
wind gusts to 65-70 mph given inverted-V thermodynamic profiles.
This threat may locally increase with northward extent where storms
will encounter greater low-level moisture and buoyancy to the north
of a surface cold front. Trends will continue to be monitored, but
generally limited potential for storm organization and the isolated
nature of the severe risk are likely to preclude watch issuance.

..Chalmers/Guyer.. 08/13/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!4hfeySPIvKMeuTi7PCd4QOB6nokZO1hAvIMCdjwI1jvGAJZ73IC_oXJSdVkHtIv8fxR3MyGsTRfY78lgyKwh-TcsIVc$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ICT...OUN...DDC...GLD...LUB...AMA...

LAT...LON 34640201 36360206 36490209 37760185 38390136 38650024
38509909 37949807 36729869 35739962 34290075 33860173
34640201

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


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