ACUS11 KWNS 132042
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 132041
NEZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-WYZ000-132245-

Mesoscale Discussion 1971
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0341 PM CDT Thu Aug 13 2026

Areas affected...portions of the central High Plains

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 132041Z - 132245Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms developing along the Front Range will evolve
eastward through this evening, bringing a risk for isolated severe
wind gusts and large hail.

DISCUSSION...Latest surface analysis depicts a cold front
approaching the Front Range across portions of the central High
Plains. Easterly, upslope flow within the post-frontal air mass is
aiding in the westerly advection of richer low-level moisture
(low-to-mid 60s F surface dewpoints). As thunderstorms developing
along the Front Range evolve eastward and encounter this greater
moisture and buoyancy, at least some increase in the severe risk is
expected. Modest effective shear of 20-30 kts (indicated by recent mesoanalysis) and cold pool consolidation should primarily favor a multicellular/cluster storm mode, with damaging/severe wind gusts
the primary hazard owing to steep low-level lapse rates. Isolated
large hail may also accompany any more robust updrafts given the
presence of steeper mid-level lapse rates. Watch issuance appears
unlikely at this time owing to the expectation for the severe risk
to remain generally limited in coverage and magnitude.

..Chalmers/Guyer.. 08/13/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!6VwXPwYBIoLRtECwKqQCMJM0V8z5qQZZIWXqWCDA4mCbyUgew40YI6cqPYTyir5Ls_m69QiDSzf2w9ze7298FvZmCOI$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LBF...DDC...GLD...PUB...BOU...CYS...

LAT...LON 37210193 37050220 37040264 37050416 37240444 38040490
39920551 40680555 41220549 41690514 41960480 42040402
41890328 41510255 40390190 38780177 37770183 37210193

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


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