ACUS11 KWNS 140631
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 140630
INZ000-140830-

Mesoscale Discussion 1975
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0130 AM CDT Fri Aug 14 2026

Areas affected...Central IN

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 140630Z - 140830Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Wind-damage potential will spread east-southeastward with
an ongoing storm cluster, though longevity of the threat is
uncertain.

DISCUSSION...A small southeastward-moving storm cluster has evolved
across west-central IN, with another isolated strong to potentially
severe storm ongoing north of Indianapolis. This somewhat elevated
convection has developed north of an outflow-reinforced front,
within a low-level warm-advection regime that will continue for much
of the overnight. MUCAPE of 1000-2000 J/kg and 30-40 kt of effective
shear will continue to support organized storms.

The modest upscale growth noted across west-central IN could lead to
an increase in wind-damage potential over the next 1-2 hours.
However, the magnitude of the threat is uncertain due to lingering
near-surface stability, and recent objective mesoanalyses depict
decreasing MUCAPE and increasing MUCINH with southeastward extent.
If a robust cold pool can become established, then a more organized
wind-damage threat could evolve across a larger portion of central
IN with time. Otherwise, localized strong/damaging gusts will
continue to be possible, and some potential for isolated hail may
persist with the remaining semi-discrete cells.

..Dean/Mosier.. 08/14/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!_Bl65y1wBCHoS-ovc19xwuQB-TwPKn4eZuVg_hMmZ6_ps9nfxDtVwqumaOW-SpZHPbDf9EBVwWyjQFtE_jjmU_oocVU$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ILN...IND...

LAT...LON 40058750 40298729 40398677 40238590 40088546 39828528
39608523 39518562 39488633 39498710 39598733 39838748
40058750

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


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--- scorpsmtpd
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