ACUS11 KWNS 182039
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 182039=20
MSZ000-LAZ000-ARZ000-182215-

Mesoscale Discussion 0484
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0339 PM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024

Areas affected...northeast Louisiana and central Mississippi

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 182039Z - 182215Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...The threat for isolated large hail and damaging wind gusts
has increased across northeast Louisiana and central Mississippi.

DISCUSSION...A persistent cluster of thunderstorms in the ArkLaMiss
has shown minimal organization this afternoon. However, within the
last 30 minutes, some stronger cores have developed and are starting
to show better structure from the KDGX WSR-88D. Temperatures south
of this activity have warmed into the upper 70s to low 80s with
dewpoints in the upper 60s to low 70s. This has yielded 1500 to 2000
J/kg MLCAPE with SPC mesoanalysis indicating MLCINH has recently
eroded. Therefore, these storms may be becoming surface based. If
so, this would increase the threat for isolated large hail and
damaging wind gusts this afternoon, and allow the threat to persist
into the late afternoon and early evening.

..Bentley/Mosier.. 04/18/2024

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!6i82tEZS1fvsh8jbVvR5TbLSJpKjoyLcRlegthcLv7sHZ6gltKIQaElzj9UJ98jq47ss2thM1= l-rVZ9-jPmFpIlxbpo$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JAN...SHV...

LAT...LON 33538863 33108838 32548842 32178894 32029116 32109208
32419233 32989214 33249124 33538863=20


=3D =3D =3D
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