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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0485

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Thu Apr 18 21:03:22 2024
    ACUS11 KWNS 182103
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 182102=20
    ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-182300-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0485
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0402 PM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024

    Areas affected...central/north-central into northeast Texas

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 182102Z - 182300Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

    SUMMARY...The threat for isolated to widely scattered supercells
    will increase late this afternoon into the early evening.

    DISCUSSION...A very unstable airmass has developed across central
    and northeast Texas with low to mid 70s dewpoints and temperatures
    in the 80s. MLCAPE around 3000 J/kg and effective shear around 25 to
    30 knots will support organized storms including the potential for
    supercells. However, storm coverage remains questionable due to
    relatively weak forcing. In the near term, the best potential for
    storm development is in central Texas where temperatures are hot
    (near 90 F) and convergence is greater. Visible satellite shows
    cumulus clustering in this region with at least one orphan anvil.

    A severe thunderstorm watch may be needed if mature thunderstorm
    development appears imminent. This region is south of the mid-level
    speed max which is resulting in less shear. However, shear should be
    sufficient for supercells, and given the extreme buoyancy, very
    large hail (up to baseball size) is possible.

    ..Bentley/Mosier.. 04/18/2024

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!9K6JbGDg1QFZv-lduwQfjkjmUfxy-heWbYB3XObXulJigpg9-y64SXEj73C8LIPE7IVluyk_C= JHbOUOR_0DWgn9m_28$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...EWX...SJT...

    LAT...LON 30879829 30889900 31019945 31289954 31459926 31749898
    32579761 33509702 33829654 33909521 33569412 32699445
    31699573 30939711 30879829=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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