AWUS01 KWNH 091706
FFGMPD
MSZ000-LAZ000-092304-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1168
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1206 PM EST Mon Dec 09 2024

Areas affected...Southeast LA and Far Southern MS

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 091704Z - 092304Z

SUMMARY... A narrow band of showers and storms training across
southeast LA into MS containing hourly rainfall rates up to 2" at
times could produce areas of flash flooding through this
afternoon. Any flash flood risk is expected to be localized and
confined to urbanized locations.

DISCUSSION... Upper shortwave crossing over the western Gulf
Coast, as evident by GOES-16 mid-level WV, ahead a of deeper
positively-tilted longwave trough extending from the Upper Midwest
to the central Great Basin are aiding in enhance lift along the
central Gulf Coast. Strong west-southwest flow at the mid and
upper levels along the central and western Gulf Coast are
maintaining a moist environment with analyzed PWs of 1.7-1.9"
centered across south-central and southeast LA. These PW values
also near the 90th climatological percentile per the 00z ECENS.
Uniform west-southwest flow through the column will also support
the training potential into this afternoon until the better
forcing shifts eastward by this evening.

Instability will be a limiting factor as MUCAPE remains around
500-1000 J/kg, which for this part of the country struggles to
produce rainfall rates above FFG. 3-hour FFG of 3-5" exists across
much of the region, but are lower near Baton Rouge and Lafayette
due to prior rainfall. 12z HREF and 15z HRRR guidance seem to have
an ok handle on current trends and highlight a low chance for
exceeding 3" per 6 hours by this evening within the MPD area. If
training occurs over low-lying or urban regions for an extended
period, localized flash flooding is possible.

Snell

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!9Ua6quaahsrqkzhmkj3WqcRhB5bVObQ6f4qoNdWMD4P1mWRNdlQNBAVGh26W39UYyqpt= AzvV1okY2UYluhPW0fgXzpg$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LCH...LIX...MOB...

ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON 30938954 30748893 30318894 29998953 29569081=20
29349194 29679223 30229177 30769057=20

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AWUS01 KWNH 092159
FFGMPD
FLZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-100257-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1169
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
458 PM EST Mon Dec 09 2024

Areas affected...Parts of Southeast LA, Southern MS, and Southwest
AL

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 092157Z - 100257Z

SUMMARY... A weakening line of showers and storms as well as
reforming convection upstream over south-central LA may lead to
additional chances for localized flash flooding this evening along
sections of the central Gulf Coast.

DISCUSSION... Same shortwave responsible for the breakout of
morning convection across southern LA is now crossing the central
Gulf Coast and entering the Southeast, while strong uniform
southwesterly flow continues to advect tropical moisture from the
eastern Pacific per GOES-West ADV LPW. PWs remain in the 1.6-1.9"
range per SPC's mesoanalysis and around the 90th climatological
percentile. These elevated PW values continue to advect further
eastward and across AL, but with instability remaining mostly
meager. SBCAPE values have climbed to above 1000 J/kg across
south-central LA mainly due to diurnal heating, which will wane in
the next few hours. However, speed maxes noted in GOES-East ML WV
exiting northern Mexico within the deep tropical moisture stream
imply convection may continue to linger a few hours past sunset.

This combination of elevated moisture, strong uniform
southwesterly flow, and remaining instability pool will lead to
additional chances for localized training thunderstorms capable of
containing hourly rainfall rates up to 2"/hr through around 9 pm
CT. A corridor of 3-5" of rainfall has already fallen per MRMS in
a SW-NE oriented line along the northern shores of Lake
Pontchartrain and southwestward. Otherwise, additional localized
corridors of 1-1.5" have already occurred. Therefore, even though
3-hr FFG remains widely above 2.5" there could be localized areas
more susceptible to flash flooding with 2-3" additional totals.
Urban locations will be most at risk within the broader isolated
flash flooding threat stretching from southern LA to southern MS.

Farther east into southern AL, a continuous band of rainfall
containing hourly rates around 1" is expected to continue within a
corridor of enhanced atmospheric moisture and very low
instability. This region may see more widespread rainfall amounts
above 1.5", but falling at lower rates. Any flash flood risk for
AL is considered low, with urban and poor drainage locations most
at risk for isolated impacts.

Snell

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!_5mD1sgdjdxSJQUq--ZU_lFvtM-hwSmOEBRUzFgHv9etbNUToQBgD0D22VOt_sV5YVQq= _eYBHEVqLVb4zGcYLULQXZA$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JAN...LCH...LIX...MOB...

ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...SERFC...NWC...

LAT...LON 31828764 31668652 30968662 30388839 29879017=20
29609171 29979218 30519198 31059089 31578904=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

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AWUS01 KWNH 100426
FFGMPD
FLZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-101000-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1170
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1125 PM EST Mon Dec 09 2024

Areas affected...southern AL, southwestern GA, northern FL
Panhandle

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 100423Z - 101000Z

SUMMARY... Localized flash flooding will be possible over southern
AL, southwestern GA into northern portions of the FL Panhandle.
Rainfall rates of 1-2 in/hr with localized totals of 2-4 inches
may occur.

DISCUSSION...An axis of training showers and embedded
thunderstorms has resulted in a narrow axis of 2-4 inches of rain
over southwestern AL since roughly 12Z. Radar imagery from 04Z
showed that a WSW to ENE axis of moderate to heavy rain continued
to affect southern AL but with slow eastward progression. The
heavy rain was occurring near a low level convergence axis, which
was located just above the surface and extended from the
northwestern tip of the western FL Panhandle across the southern
AL/GA border. Precipitable water values of 1.5 to 1.8 inches and
generally weak instability near 500 J/kg were supporting localized
rainfall rates of 1-2 in/hr at times. Water vapor imagery showed
weakly diffluent flow over the region and ascent may be aided by
lift occurring within the right-entrance region of a RAP
forecast/developing 130 kt jet max over northern AL/eastern TN.

Southerly to southwesterly low level flow is forecast to maintain
over the region through the night along with 500-1000 J/kg
ML/MUCAPE just south of the convergence axis, which should
continue to slowly translate east over the next few hours ahead of
an upstream upper trough over the western U.S. and resultant
mid-level height falls. While overall weakening is expected as the
low level convergence axis loses definition, pockets of short term
training may be enough to support additional 1-2 in/hr rates at
times from southern Al into southwestern GA and the northern FL
Panhandle through ~10Z. Also, additional shower redevelopment will
be possible toward 10Z back to the west, ahead of a cold front to
be approaching from the Lower Mississippi Valley.

Due today's rainfall, flash flood guidance is 2-3 inches in 3
hours across northern portions of the MPD threat area. The
potential for an additional 2-4 inches may cause localized flash
flooding over urban or otherwise sensitive locations of the region.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!9YLOaOjknNUwA86BtvGPdc8o5iaR99r4j6RkzaBQchx1OroHDV00el0DeOobp5ncHnkL= _9gprbuo8pSa4tKtur2mr54$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...FFC...MOB...TAE...

ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...SERFC...NWC...

LAT...LON 32778527 32478442 31658451 31158486 30838560=20
30738682 30738789 31198846 31808806 32498670=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

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AWUS01 KWNH 101020
FFGMPD
ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-101615-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1171
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
519 AM EST Tue Dec 10 2024

Areas affected...southern LA into south-central MS and western AL

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 101018Z - 101615Z

SUMMARY...Showers and embedded thunderstorms will increase this
morning across southern LA/MS/AL. Rainfall coverage and intensity
should increase through 16Z and areas of training will be capable
of producing 1-2 in/hr rainfall rates. Flash flooding will be
possible, especially where overlap occurs with rainfall from
Monday.

DISCUSSION...Radar and GOES East satellite imagery from 10Z showed
a SW to NE oriented zone of widely scattered showers with embedded thunderstorms translating toward the east across southern LA into
south-central MS. These showers were located along a near surface
convergence axis located out ahead of a cold front, which draped
from southern AR into southeastern TX. MLCAPE was fairly weak over
LA/MS (500-1000 J/kg per 10Z SPC mesoanalysis data) but shower
activity was located just to the west of an axis of precipitable
water values that contained 1.5 to 1.7 inches.

As broad lift begins to overspread the Lower MS Valley, out ahead
of a large, positively tilted, upper trough axis over the
Southwest, the coverage and intensity of showers/thunderstorms
along the eastward progressing low level convergence axis will
increase. This should also be true as the convergence axis reaches
higher precipitable water values to the east along with forecasts
of increasing instability with daytime heating. An upper level jet
max over the eastern TX/OK border, with GOES East DMVs having
sampled 120-130 kt between 07-08Z near 250 mb, is expected to
continue to increase in magnitude as it translates downstream
toward the MS River through the morning. Locations within the
right-entrance region of this upper jet max are expected to see
enhanced lift through late morning. Mean steering flow from the
southwest will parallel the axis of forcing allowing for training
of heavy rain at times with 1-2 in/hr becoming more likely later
this morning as the axis of heavy rain shifts east.

While expected rainfall through 16Z is likely to fall primarily to
the north of a stripe of heavy rain (2 to 5 inches) which fell
across portions of the central Gulf Coast on Monday, localized
convective development near the Gulf Coast...or closer to the
source of higher instability...could overlap with these more
hydrologically sensitive areas to generate flash flooding. Farther
north, any areas of flash flooding that develop should remain
localized atop low lying and/or urban areas.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!8VIX2kgJs2zzn24siebz7LfZftG3fwtvEp4o3p_Fq8aeifb8uHeRdwA2Z-msOBIuPTeM= Y5ft_Gp15KtBwN_PRYjOYFE$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...JAN...LCH...LIX...MOB...

ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...SERFC...NWC...

LAT...LON 33068836 32588751 31838799 30219007 29529181=20
29679238 30139264 31089168 32638948=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 101531
FFGMPD
GAZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-102130-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1172
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1030 AM EST Tue Dec 10 2024

Areas affected...Parts of the Deep South and Southeast

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 101530Z - 102130Z

SUMMARY... Increasing coverage of showers and thunderstorms
through this afternoon will be capable of containing hourly rates
up to 2"/hr and 6-hourly totals over 3", while likely training
over similar areas. This will lead to scattered flash flooding
potential, mainly for urban and low-lying locations

DISCUSSION... Current satellite, radar, and surface observations
display a developing southwest-northeast oriented axis of showers
and thunderstorms extending from eastern LA to central AL. These
showers and thunderstorms are forming in advance of a deep upper
trough (-1.0 to -1.5 standardized anomaly per 00z ECENS)
stretching from the Upper Midwest to the Southern Rockies. This
trough is aiding in strong uniform southwesterly flow advecting
anomalous moisture throughout the column with a source region of
the eastern Pacific, visible via GOES-West ADV LPW. Actual PW
values of 1.5"-1.7" currently spans from eastern LA to central GA,
but these values are forecast to expand throughout the day into
the Southeast in response to strengthening mid and upper level
flow as the the aforementioned trough takes on more of a neutral
tilt over the central U.S.

Radar and GOES-East visible satellite this morning depicts and a
few subtle areas of convergence extending to the northeast of the
approaching cold front. One area impacting Birmingham, AL and a
separate more noticeable axis to the south over Montgomery, AL and
the I-65 to I-85 corridor. These areas of convergence are most
likely to display training storms within the deep uniform
southwesterly flow, with greater instability (500-1000 J/kg)
advecting into the southern line. Overall, CAMs and 06z HREF
guidance display that hourly rates are not expected to exceed 2"
outside of very localized locations, but that 6-hourly totals
could exceed 3" and this would top the 6-hr FFG. So areas
experiencing training thunderstorms will be most at risk for
excessive rainfall as opposed to impacts from individual cells.

Overall, if these amounts are realized it is expected that
scattered low-lying and urbanized locations could experience rapid
water runoff and flash flooding impacts, particularly after 18z
along the I-85 and I-65 corridors of AL.

Snell

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!9I0Lt1rnPx9qCAo9zkE6kisJU6T2p8DxE5PKBP-g4294KOZjc8QtecrsXJ5kPF0yaCJM= NEGcZ5UU0Ls0nhxvVmVupF0$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...FFC...JAN...LIX...MOB...

ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...SERFC...NWC...

LAT...LON 34148494 33898413 33208394 32328501 31338706=20
30698864 30408964 30619019 31059021 31738971=20
32528879 33258766 33848634=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 110607
FFGMPD
VAZ000-NCZ000-SCZ000-GAZ000-111205-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1173
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
106 AM EST Wed Dec 11 2024

Areas affected...Piedmont to Blue Ridge foothills of GA/SC/NC

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 110605Z - 111205Z

SUMMARY...There will be some potential for lower end flash or
urban flooding across the Piedmont of GA/SC/NC into the foothills
of the Blue Ridge Mountains through 12Z. Elements of training
rainfall will be capable of producing 1 to 1.5+ in/hr rates with 3
to 6-hour totals of 2-3 inches.

DISCUSSION...0530Z radar imagery across the southeastern U.S.
showed a broad swath of mostly stratiform rainfall extending from
central GA into the Carolinas, though some embedded thunderstorms
were observed within a broken convective line extending from
western GA to the Gulf Coast where MLCAPE was estimated to be
500-1000 J/kg (05Z SPC mesoanalysis). Precipitation was occurring
in advance of a cold front with the convective line along a narrow
axis of pre-frontal convergence near the surface. MRMS rainfall
rates have recently been peaking near 1 in/hr, such as along the
GA/SC border just south of Columbus.

While much of this rain has been beneficial to the region given
below average rainfall over the past few weeks, there will likely
be an uptick in rainfall intensity heading through the morning
hours for locations in the Carolinas. As an upper trough axis,
observed on water vapor imagery just west of the MS River,
continues to advance eastward, continued amplification of the
downstream low level flow will likely result in increased moisture
transport and modest instability increases into the Carolinas
through 12Z. In addition, while instability is not expected to be
a significant contributing factor to enhancing rainfall, a
strengthening upper level jet is likely to enhance lift over the
Blue Ridge and Piedmont later this morning. GOES East DMVs sampled
170 kt near 250 mb over the upper OH Valley at 05Z and some
additional strengthening is likely farther south, ahead of the
through axis becoming neutrally tilted over OK/AR on current water
vapor imagery, forecast to become negatively tilted later this
morning. Increasingly divergent and diffluent flow over the
southeastern U.S. may help to compensate for weak instability and
allow for rainfall rates of 1 to 1.5+ in/hr where heavier cores
train along pre-frontal convergence axes through 12Z. With these
heavier rates, potential for urban flooding or minor flash
flooding will exist with perhaps 2-3 inches of rain in a 3 to 6
hour window of time.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!42KVo-cuWdZA49WyXuK3cBlvwfFLJT3Fo_efugQTMp1x4HlfCgrYm430E7bLCQiYB5kI= th86gfq61e8Se2dVPOycHJM$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CAE...FFC...GSP...RAH...RNK...

ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...OHRFC...SERFC...NWC...

LAT...LON 36627963 35477938 34228065 32668254 32128373=20
32218460 32788480 34048402 35008291 36418123=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

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AWUS01 KWNH 132001
FFGMPD
CAZ000-ORZ000-140600-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1174
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
300 PM EST Fri Dec 13 2024

Areas affected...Northern California...Southwest Oregon

Concerning...Heavy rainfall

Valid 132000Z - 140600Z

SUMMARY...An approaching storm system accompanying a strengthening
atmospheric river will result in an areal increase of excessive
rainfall rates this afternoon and into tonight. Areas of flash
flooding and landslides are possible.

DISCUSSION...GOES-West satellite imagery shows a steady fire-hose
of Pacific moisture being directed at the U.S. West Coast today
with periods of rain well underway across northern CA and southern
OR. As the afternoon unfolds, the approaching warm front and storm
system will force southerly 925-850mb winds to accelerate into the
far northern CA coast. The warm front's approach will also force
freezing levels to rise as high as 5,000ft in some cases. This
provides both a deeper warm cloud layer and would allow for higher
elevations (up to around 5,000ft) to be at-risk for excessive
rainfall rates. By 00Z, the triple-point of the frontal system
will be tracking through the CA/OR border and the warm front will
reside along the CA Coastal Range. A surge in 850mb moisture flux
along the northern CA coast will accompany an IVT >750 kg/m/s that
surpasses the 99th climatological percentile according to NAEFS.
This robust IVT is the catalyst for a >12hr period for excessive
rainfall from as far north as southwest OR to as far south as some
of the northern Bay Area suburbs overnight.

12Z HREF probabilistic guidance shows high chance probabilities

70%) for >0.5"/hr rainfall rates around the Eureka area as early

as 21Z. These probabilities then spread as far north as the OR/CA
coastal border between 00-03Z. By 03Z, the cold front will be on
approach and the northern CA coast will become placed within the
storm's warm sector. Low-end MUCAPE values (generally <200 J/kg)
could be available for potential convective enhancement in
northern CA tonight, while the strong SW flow aloft supports
strong upslope enhancement into the Trinity/Shasta Mountains
between 03-06Z tonight. These two areas could see rainfall rates
approach 1"/hr in some cases.

Overall, through ~06Z Saturday, additional rainfall totals of 2-4"
are expected within most of the highlighted region with localized
totals surpassing 5" possible. The 12Z HREF depicts
low-to-moderate chance probabilities (30-50%) for 12-hr QPF >5"
along the coast near and south of Eureka, as well as in the
southwestern facing slopes of the Trinity/Shasta Mountains.
Previously saturated soils have recovered to some extent given the
drier than normal stretch of weather over the past couple weeks,
which should help limit the areal extent for potential flash
flooding. That said, the atmospheric parameters mentioned above
are more than enough to support the potential flash flooding and
landslides in parts of northern CA this afternoon and into
tonight.

Mullinax

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!4qLvtWeaBcIOYHZkoGSpo2fqD1WRjZoZ7yQJcmzH6-Uedhy7O7s0XLSR8fnL2zcKeXvT= NoWtsLIC1SZ_CJNrFGFsldM$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EKA...MFR...STO...

ATTN...RFC...CNRFC...NWRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON 42442432 42422394 42172361 41792363 41342343=20
40972324 40832293 41082230 40862213 40252285=20
39652302 39112306 38872348 39072392 39622409=20
40142453 40582460 41482437 42082453=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 140501
FFGMPD
CAZ000-141500-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1175
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1200 AM EST Sat Dec 14 2024

Areas affected...Northern and Central California....

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 140500Z - 141500Z

SUMMARY...Initial surge of deep moisture/typical Atmospheric River
will given way to approaching stronger cyclogenesis/flux
convergence with potetial of .75-1"/hr localized showers that may
induce localized flash flooding particularly in/near urban
locations around San Francisco Bay after 11z.

DISCUSSION...GOES-W WV suite depicts a mature strong closed low
along 130W near 46N that has driven an occluded/cold front
through the coastal range of W WA/OR. Solid shortwave ridge
within the upper-level cirrus canopy denotes the left exit of the
130kt 3H jet streaking northward, while the right entrance exists
at the trailing edge of the cold front resulting in a weak surface
to 850mb wave/inflection along/just north of Cape Mendocino. CIRA
LPW denotes this feature with an enhanced moisture pocket of .6"
and .4" with the respective sfc-850 and 850-700mb layers before
connecting back to the main core of the SW to NE oriented warm
conveyor/AR plume. This plume currently intersects the Redwood
Coast from Cape Mendocino to near the entrance to the San
Francisco Bay. Enhanced convergence and weak cooling aloft has
seen some steepening of lapse rates near the surface inflection
back near the Cape, with RADAR indicating some enhanced linear
filaments of convective still remaining but ushering themselves
ashore likely with .5"/hr rates resulting in best opportunity for
short-term flooding concerns. However, the main core of the AR
will continue with solid 45-50kt fairly orthogonal ascent
resulting in 700-800 kg/m/s of IVT that will slowly drift
southward over the next 4-6hrs resulting in average .33 to .5"/hr
rates across the Redwood Coast toward the Napa Region. Additional
totals of 2-3" are likely through 12z as the core of the AR shifts
ashore into the central Valley and lower slopes of the Northern
Sierra Nevada range.

Possible Flash Flooding after 10-15z in Central California...
GOES-W WV suite also depicts the core of a strong mid to low level
cyclone developing just west of 130W about 36-37N quickly
approaching. Upstream strong digging of the trough is
strengthening the descending branch of the mid to upper level jet
rapidly deepening the cyclone. The strong vorticity advection is
expected to peak over the next 3-4hrs just west of the central CA
coast with near negative tilt as a 130-140kt jet streak rounds the
base of the larger scale trough from 09-12z. Low level flow will back/strengthen and flux will steadily increase. Additionally,
CAA will help to steepen mid-level lapse rates and potential for
250-500 J/kg of MUCAPE will accompany the enhanced moisture flux.=20
Hi-Res CAMs continue to suggest convective streets/elements with
capacity of .75-1"/hr rates likely to focus where the cold front
sags/flattens which looks to be trending near Sonoma county, but
with height-falls/forward propagation along/ahead of the DPVA will
enhance through San Francisco Bay toward 12z. 00z HREF
probability of 1"/3hr is nearly 100% while 1"/hr peaks around
50-60% at 12-13z near the mouth of the Bay; providing enhanced
confidence for possible incidents of flash flooding in/near the
urban locations surrounding the Bay (initially north side before
15z). Localized totals of 1-2.5" are possible with convective
areas near the Bay though spots of 3-5" are also likely along SW
facing orographic peaks in the Trinity Range, Coastal Range of
Mendocino/Lake and Napa counties and lower slopes of Tehama/Butte
county by 15z.=20

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!7BT1hUO_UzJjqIeszCnUrh0hrk4ZaqXFMBmM5FzZ5NmdukTWliA6qstx3gYkW6dKSULT= U4Zlw_yYYOOcqerdhNP4cU0$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EKA...MTR...STO...

ATTN...RFC...CNRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON 41372412 41312379 40962356 40822328 40672266=20
40702194 39892160 39332095 39012071 38642080=20
38232113 37302130 36662155 36422192 36792243=20
37392272 38002312 38592356 39072384 39742401=20
40012425 40322450 40762436 41032427=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 170303
FFGMPD
MSZ000-LAZ000-ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-170830-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1176
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1002 PM EST Mon Dec 16 2024

Areas affected...Southern Arkansas...Northwest Mississippi..Adj
portionsOK, TX, LA...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 170300Z - 170830Z

SUMMARY...The potential for continued back-building of weakening
but training showers may present a low-end scattered incident or
two of flash flooding through the overnight hours.

DISCUSSION...GOES-E WV suite denotes an elongated trough/stream
intersection extending from northeast Texas across the Delta
Region of the MS River toward the southern Ohio Valley toward the
tail end of the more amplified exiting flow across the Lower Great
Lakes. GOES-AMVs confirm RAP analysis of this intersection
extends the length of the broad right entrance to the 70-90kt 3H
jet across the TN/OH valley. A small inflection/wave is highly
divergent across NE TX providing the enhanced ascent pattern noted
with strong cirrus filaments along the northern edge of the
convective clusters across NE TX, AR into N MS/SW TN. The deep
unidirectional flow extends back to central TX, where moisture is
generally confluent before veering into solid isentropic ascent
toward the upper level jet entrance. As such, CIRA LPW and RAP
analysis show an enhanced pool of moisture starting to near 1.5"
with the vast majority below 850mb.

Surface analysis shows defined sagging cold front across AR, that
is starting to sharpen, with warm sector southerly flow providing
weak but sufficient surface convergence from 5-10kts. Strong
convection with some weak QLCS features generally training along
the boundary/deep layer moisture interface are fed upstream by
pool of 1000-1250 J/kg of MUCAPE before diminishing rapidly toward
N MS. Rates of 1.5-1.7"/hr are probable given moisture/unstable
air and with training profiles may allow for streaks of 2-3"
totals, though eastward along the line will see enhanced
southeastward propagation. While soil conditions are fairly
dry/generally recepible; they are starting to go a bit dormant and
rates may be sufficient for localized pooling/enchained run-off.=20
As such flash flooding is considered possible.=20=20

While upstream convection appears to becoming a bit more fractured
due to slightly weaker flow, the upper-level divergence/outflow
channel is suggestive/supportive of back-building/isentropic
ascent. Additionally, this mid-level wave is supporting some
shortwave ridging across SW to south-central AR and backing
propagation vectors to be be more northward allowing for greater
potential for training cells through the next 4-5 hours. Hi-Res
CAMs are inconsistent in the evolution overall convective activity/coverage...given the weakened upstream convergence, but
ones that do have stronger convergence do depict a higher
potential for training/back-building signal near areas that have
already received the higher rainfall resulting in initial flash
flooding warning. Confidence is high contingent on the evolution
and so the risk for continued flash flooding across Texarkana
toward the central LA/AR border is also considered possible
through 09z (as signals further diminish through the entire hi-res
CAM suite).

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!4JL0cz_VHm3h9p4tVjTc76TK83nt1BoJs5dsXu1ORbV9cyx5DbBbMIFhfgvCHAe5i5sJ= CN4gz7US5su4YfGLjs8bzDY$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JAN...LZK...MEG...SHV...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...LMRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON 34649054 34488968 33928946 33409022 33069166=20
32919259 32909333 32849406 33109473 33359479=20
33799453 33989415 34199346 34409209=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 172204
FFGMPD
ORZ000-WAZ000-181000-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1177
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
503 PM EST Tue Dec 17 2024

Areas affected...western WA into northwestern OR

Concerning...Heavy rainfall

Valid 172202Z - 181000Z

SUMMARY...Areas of heavy rainfall will continue to affect western
WA into northwestern OR through tonight. While high rainfall rates
will not not be constant over the next 6-12 hours, rates will
occasionally surpass 0.5 in/hr and locally approach 1 in/hr into
the favored terrain leading to an additional 2-5 inches of rain
through Wednesday morning.

DISCUSSION...GOES West water vapor imagery at 21Z showed a
vorticity max embedded within a broader mid-upper level trough
axis near 41N 141W, tracking toward the east and preceded by a
130-150 kt upper level jet. A cold front was analyzed at the
surface out ahead of the upper trough with a surface wave near 42N
135W. An atmospheric river was noted with peak PWAT values of 1.2
to 1.3 inches on CIRA Advected TPW imagery and RAP analysis data
ahead of the cold front to the west of WA/OR. PWAT values along
the coast, near the mouth of the Columbia River, were just below
1.2 inches via GPS data, but when combined with southwesterly 850
mb winds of 40-50 kt, IVT values were estimated to be near 700
kg/m/s along the southern WA/northern OR coast. Downstream
rainfall rates into the northern OR Coastal Ranges have already
been observed in the 0.5 to near 1.0 in/hr range from earlier
today, but radar/satellite imagery indicated the heaviest rain was
shifting north into western WA.

Water vapor imagery does not suggest the base of the upper trough
is amplifying any more to the south and may even be beginning to
lift slightly north. A general E to ENE motion to the upper trough
is forecast by RAP guidance through the overnight which will
continue to translate the greatest magnitude of IVT values
northward across western WA, with the peak axis focusing primarily
into Vancouver Island just after 00Z, perhaps clipping far
northwestern Clallam County in WA. Peak rainfall rates along the
WA Coastal Ranges into the Olympics within the northward shifting
IVT axis should reach into the 0.5 to 0.8 in/hr range, perhaps
isolated values near 1.0 in/hr. A temporary lull in heavy rain is
expected for much of the Pacific Northwest just after 00Z followed
by another surge as the upper trough and surface cold front
approach overnight. From roughly 06Z onward, IVT values are
forecast to surge to near 1000 kg/m/s along the WA/OR coast via
recent RAP guidance, but only last for an hour or two at that
magnitude. The overnight surge is likely to produce rainfall rates
in the 0.5 to 0.8 inch range with localized values near or in
excess of 1.0 in/hr.

Additional rainfall totals of 2-4 inches are likely to occur
through 09Z for the WA Coastal Ranges into northwestern OR, along
with the upslope regions of the WA Cascades. Isolated totals in
excess of 5 inches cannot be ruled out, especially in any favored
southwest facing slopes of the Olympics where the duration of
higher rainfall rates is expected to be the longest. Gauges showed
24 hour totals of 1-2 inches for the Coastal Ranges and Cascades
so far, with localized maxima near 3 inches. Earlier collaboration
with the National Water Center and NWM output suggests flooding
should be isolated at best, partially due to dry antecedent
conditions, but 48 hour rainfall totals of 5-7 inches through
Wednesday morning will likely support notable rises on area
creeks/streams.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!-E06sBTiKv_1XE9fjB-Sa5EcS8WulePp0i71Bzc_2R7jrYf7wCg9heGD1yHABLvMe-a7= 6QL8Ggj5rYHY1DZKV4_0uSQ$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OTX...PDT...PQR...SEW...

ATTN...RFC...NWRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON 49102238 49072164 48862117 48662101 48372094=20
48102088 47782096 47562096 47322103 47122107=20
46952103 46782107 46562129 46332135 46172137=20
45982159 45782159 45592169 45472197 45512216=20
45702243 45852246 46072267 46182270 46422248=20
46632258 46742255 46872228 46962223 47042238=20
47012275 46822305 46672311 46502308 46332320=20
46272340 46112344 45962345 45672333 45552337=20
45382341 45282347 45172354 44982347 44792356=20
44722384 44982433 45492455 46732462 48242509=20
48442453 48282397 48302321 48622290 48872289=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 172250
FFGMPD
FLZ000-180400-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1178
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
550 PM EST Tue Dec 17 2024

Areas affected...east coast of FL

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 172248Z - 180400Z

SUMMARY...Localized flash/urban flooding will be possible along
the eastern FL Peninsula over the next few hours. Slow cell
movement and/or training will be capable of 1 to 3 in/hr rainfall
rates which may generate isolated excess runoff within the urban
corridor.

DISCUSSION...Radar imagery from KMLB and infrared satellite
imagery through 2230Z showed scattered thunderstorms occurring
along the east coast of FL between Cape Canaveral and Port Saint
Lucie, streaming in from the east following the mean low to
mid-level easterly flow between 10-20 kt. Surface dewpoints in the
lower 70s have contributed to anomalous mid-December moisture with
precipitable water values between 1.5 and 1.8 inches (90th
percentile) with 1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE observed on the 22Z SPC
mesoanalysis.

Cells were located just north of a weak mid-upper level vorticity
max observed on water vapor imagery over south-central FL, along a
persistent west-east convergence axis seen in fading visible
imagery offshore of the east coast. Mean easterly winds in the low
to mid-levels have supported repeating cells with short-term
training, with observed rainfall rates of 1-2 in/hr near Vero
Beach. While recent cloud top cooling on satellite imagery has
appeared to migrate generally just offshore, redevelopment and
westward translation of heavy rain looks to continue a short-term
urban/flash flood threat from southern Brevard County into St.
Lucie County along the coast where an additional 2-4 inches will
be possible on a highly localized basis through ~01Z.

Indications are that these cells will weaken after 00Z as boundary
layer stabilization occurs with nocturnal cooling, with cells
shifting more offshore or perhaps dissipating. While the HRRR
hasn't been doing well with the ongoing placement of cells, there
are indications in recent HRRR guidance that the activity could
refocus a bit farther south sometime in the 00-03Z time frame.
Similar potential for slow movement and/or training will exist is
development does get going farther south later tonight. Any areas
of flash flooding are expected to remain localized with potential
for a quick 2-4 inches over the next few hours.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!5Q_aGikNvzafCzBZkLacufk8V7gRB8rgpd-NiBBSPYDk2FeZhieib_YkAuz--L98hVCe= yJGOyht5Bs8lDtVQwfvAzcU$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...

ATTN...RFC...SERFC...NWC...

LAT...LON 28308046 27768008 26657985 26118002 26178029=20
26258043 26628045 27058049 27558065 28018077=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 180351
FFGMPD
MOZ000-ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-180920-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1179
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1050 PM EST Tue Dec 17 2024

Areas affected...Southeast OK...South-central MO...Far Northeast TX...Arkansas...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 180350Z - 180920Z

SUMMARY...Another round of elevated occasionally training
showers/thunderstorms with capability of 1.5"/hr and localized
totals of 2-3". Intersection with recently saturated increasingly
dormant soil conditions may result in increased localized run-off
and low-end flash flooding potential overnight.

DISCUSSION...03z surface analysis depicts an older polar boundary
draped across the Red River Valley, S Arkansas into the TN River
Valley. CIRA sfc to 850 LPW shows return moisture from the western
Gulf of Mexico streamed northward across central TX, then angling
northwest across much of AR while ascending across/above the
boundary into the 850-700mb layer. Total PWat values are in the
1.25 range, but sharpening upper-level polar trough across the
Central High Plains is increasing flow through the layers into the
30-40kt range through 700mb while sharpening the isentropic
boundary as the northern stream cold front presses further south
and east over the next few hours. Modest, mid-level drying and
lingering steeper lapse rates along with the near surface
moisture/heating is providing solid MUCAPE over the boundary with
values of 1500-2000 J/kg spreading across SE OK. Additionally to
the strengthening low level convergence/isentropic ascent; the
right entrance of the 100 kt jet is dropping southeast providing
solid divergence and evacuation to developing elevated convection
(while also moving into broadly diffluent region across S MO/AR
into the MS Valley).

Current GOES-E 10.3um and regional RADAR mosaic depict numerous
narrow core cells breaking out in two SW to NE orientated bands
across E OK and north-central AR. Coverage will increase and
updrafts will broaden to support 1.25-1.5"/hr rates occasionally
increasing to 2"/hr randomly and widely scattered in nature. Deep
layer flow while not ideally unidirectional, will support cross
track/repeating particularly over the first 2-4 hours before the
stronger flow/height-falls aloft increase forward cell motions and
increase southeastward cell propagation. This should allow for a
few scattered incidents of 2-3" totals across E OK/W AR and
perhaps even further downstream; which is likely to align with
areas that missed out on the moderate/heavy rainfall a few days
ago; but FFG values of 1.5"/hr and 2-3"/3hrs are well within
range. Still there are some overlaps along the edges of
south-central MO and eventually SW AR to south-central AR...that
may be more susceptible given soil saturation values per NASA
SPoRT at or above 65-70% in the 0-40cm layer. Also considered,
flash flooding is possible, but given rates and totals are at the thresholds...any flash flooding is likely to be on the lower end
and scattered in nature with highest potential in urban locales.

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!9k0OktekT6-4MAB-s6CmNq1zWrJWc0ukpHtcoOWW2wcxIkYIgfPTxAYzKsNIDQVsEgyO= NeeMQe8udUjNq2_YpnhJcBs$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...LZK...OUN...SGF...SHV...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...LMRFC...WGRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON 36789162 36309120 35499120 34769177 33929358=20
33409564 33519674 34139694 34849641 36019480=20
36739300=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 180630
FFGMPD
TNZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-181130-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1180
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
129 AM EST Wed Dec 18 2024

Areas affected...Southeast MO...Northeast AR...Southern
IL...Northwest TN...Western KY...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 180630Z - 181130Z

SUMMARY...Warm advective showers/thunderstorms likely to expand in coverage/intensity toward early morning. Training/repeating
across wet/dormant grounds with low FFG suggest spots of 2-3" may
result in localized flash flooding conditions.

DISCUSSION...06z Surface analysis shows southerly return flow
across MS and W AL northward into W TN has pressed the warm front
into SW KY with lower 60s and upper 50s Temps and Tds starting to
trickle in through the MS Valley. Aloft, CIRA LPW and VWP network
show and increasing moisture plume on 30-35kts of 850-700mb WAA
across AR into the Tri-Rivers area bringing overall deeper layer
moisture values over 1.25" with short-term totals likely to near
1.5" about 09z. The combining streams, low level WAA profile with
modest lapse rates aloft have seen a steady increase in CAPE with
500-1000 J/kg analyzed across SE MO/NE AR at this time also to
focus into a nice SW to NE plume of 1000 J/kg by 09zZ into S IL/W
KY. As such, regional RADAR and GOES-E SWIR show scattered
thunderstorms W KY/E TN with greater cooling towers across SE MO
into NE AR with some tops reaching -60 to -65C; under increasing
influence of right entrance ascent/evacuation aloft of 100kt 3H
jet over N MO/N IL.

Given the strength of flux and available moisture, cores can be
capable of intense short-term rates with hourly totals of
1.25-1.5" given progressive/faster cell motions. Orientation of
cell development to the mean flow along with the scattered
downstream development (and heavier cells across NW TN/SW KY
earlier this evening) will allow for repeating over grounds that
already have 0-40cm soil moisture ratios well above normal (95+
percentile) over 60%. Hourly FFG values only further decrease
from west to east with hourly values of 1.5"/hr and 2-2.5"/3hrs
reducing to 1" and 2-2.5", respectively across central KY/TN.=20=20

Toward 12z, overall low level profile will continue to align SW-NE
and increase LLJ strength into the 35-45kt range. This should
allow for the scattered cells to orient into a longer linear
convective line from NE to SW though eastward propagation will
increase reducing the potential for training...all considered
scattered incidents of flash flooding are possible through the
morning toward daybreak.=20

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!40Ie6Zq5yf8uB3MWqhWVGlCzKo9snejZAtX0MOTAzCi4qiOLLicShXJEzclSO_LIt0TM= IH5zPZN3bVkbZs6gL20vIaE$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LMK...LZK...MEG...OHX...PAH...

ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...NCRFC...OHRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON 38218612 37798561 37208571 36798642 36078824=20
35469063 36109101 36699093 37299000 37878855=20
38198741=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 180916
FFGMPD
MSZ000-LAZ000-ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-181400-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1181
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
415 AM EST Wed Dec 18 2024

Areas affected...Southern Arkansas...Adj SE OK/NE TX/N LA...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 180915Z - 181400Z

SUMMARY...Flattening convective line shows potential for training
over the next few hours while crossing saturated soils from recent
heavy rainfall across southern AR.

DISCUSSION...Recent GOES-E 10.3um and regional RADAR trends
suggest upwind edge of best isentropic convergence across SE OK
has seen a recent uptick in convective development. WV suite
depicts the right entrance of a speed max in the cirrus across
central OK at this time. This is resulting a downstream shortwave
ridging and flattening of the 500-1000mb thickness ridge allowing
for a more eastward propagation of the convective line likely over
the next few hours. CAPE analysis fields suggest highest theta-E
axis is ideally oriented for the isentropic ascent along the Red
River Valley. Cooling tops below -65C suggests stronger updrafts
and deeper moisture flux/rainfall production. CIRA LPW places .6
to .75" sfc-850mb moisture with additional 850-700mb layer over
.3-.5" allowing for totals of 1.25" to 1.4"; given 30-35kts of
flow; flux convergence will support rates of 1.5-1.75" and given
the orientation may allow for 1-2 hours of training before the
core of height-falls across W OK/NW TX dig more and start to
accelerate the cold front south and eastward and reduce the best
ascent angle to the front from the LLJ. As such a streak or two
of 1.5-2.5" totals remain probable across Texarkana and southern
Arkansas.

Unfortunately, heavy rainfall last evening has reduced upper level
soil capacity across this area with NASA SPoRT 0-40cm saturation
ratios well above normal in the 65-75% range. So believe FFG
values may have likely recovered too fast and grounds may be more
susceptible to increased run-off and potential for localized flash
flooding. By no means will the rainfall totals be great enough
for sizable areal coverage and/or magnitude of flash flooding, but
the potential remains sufficient for an incident or two to occur
through mid-morning across S Arkansas.=20

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!8ImBU7gdw3rEfK9MDyfI6Z8EhZJG1sGH7v7E9YKCKFHrFJ-g4cmmyOqL0Ji0NIw6JTO0= tOWh3VyxLlWscqrydoWoCH8$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JAN...LZK...SHV...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...LMRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON 34969203 34799153 34209115 33829110 33209133=20
32859199 32859382 33179485 33789516 34319482=20
34629404 34939286=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 181100
FFGMPD
TNZ000-KYZ000-181600-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1182
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
600 AM EST Wed Dec 18 2024

Areas affected...Central Kentucky into Western Tennessee...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 181100Z - 181600Z

SUMMARY...Progressive convective line with embedded intense
downdrafts capable of 1-1.5"/hr and quick 1.5-2.5" totals across
low FFG values suggest widely scattered incident or two of flash
flooding remain possible through late morning.

DISCUSSION...RADAR mosaic and GOES-E 10.3um EIR show a progressive
convective line with slight uptick of vigor over the last hour or
so as the deep layer moisture flux/convergence aligns with
remaining instability axis across central KY back to SW TN. Core
of highest theta-E air remains across W TN with 500-1000 J/kg of
CAPE that decreases slowly northeastward into central KY. GOES-E
WV suite shows polar upper-level trough has made main push east
and southward out of the Plains toward the MS Valley. Broad
divergence along the right entrance to the downstream jet streak
through the Great Lakes continues to maintain solid large scale
ascent while maintaining strength of the the LLJ across Arkansas
into the TN River Valley. Surface moisture in the mid-50s,
combined with the strong moisture flux convergence along the
leading edge of the convective line will continue to support
intense sub-hourly rain-rates in the range of 1.5-1.75"/hr though
duration is likely to limit totals to 1-2" with perhaps up to an
additional .5" within the broadening moderate precipitation
shield.

The progressive nature should limit overall totals; however, the
line is moving into overall lower FFG values of 1-1.5"/hr and
1.5-2"/3hr which remain possible of being locally exceeded.=20
Overall coverage and magnitude of flash flooding is likely to be
limited on the low end of exceedance. However, the potential for
flash flooding will remain possible until about 15-18z when
instability is nearly fully exhausted and moving into a more
stable, lower temperature/moisture environment through the
Cumberland Plateau.=20

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!6Md3hLJdhA941mUTQUxMeabtvfSbT989k_pMKdrhV7sY6s-q7FvjZyQEIAl93dn1fJGc= uVyrtBADLr2uMtqlro30JKE$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JKL...LMK...MEG...OHX...PAH...

ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...OHRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON 38218366 37728326 36728462 35918596 35478705=20
35168826 35198946 35638955 36428855 36958775=20
37918608 38188508=20

=3D =3D =3D
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