278
AXNT20 KNHC 270832
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Thu Mar 27 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0830 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 05.5N09.5W and
extends SW to 04N13W. The ITCZ continues from 04N13W to 02S43W.
Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from
02N to 06N between 07W and 12W. Scattered moderate convection is
noted from 04S to 04N between 31W and 45W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

High pressure prevails across the northern waters, anchored by a
1022 mb high located offshore the Florida panhandle. A surface
trough is west of the Yucatan Peninsula. The pressure gradient
between these features is supporting fresh to strong winds west of
the Yucatan peninsula, where seas are in the 4-5 ft range. Light
winds, and seas of 2 ft or less are in the vicinity of the high
center. Gentle to moderate winds, and seas of 2-4 ft, prevail elsewhere.

For the forecast, building high pressure will support an increase
of winds to moderate to fresh across the NW portion today. Winds
over the NW Gulf will further increase to fresh to strong tonight
into Fri while expanding in coverage before beginning to diminish
early Sat. Seas generated by these winds will build to around 10
ft. A weak cold front may move into the NW Gulf late Sun night
into early next week, with winds diminishing to gentle to moderate
ahead of the front.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Fresh to strong winds, and seas of 7-8 ft, are over the south
central Caribbean. Moderate to fresh winds, and seas of 5-7 ft,
prevail elsewhere E of 80W. Over the western Caribbean, moderate
winds, and seas of 2-4 ft, are noted.

For the forecast, winds off Colombia will pulse to near gale force
speeds at night and early morning through at least the upcoming
weekend. Fresh to strong winds will develop in the lee of Cuba,
in the Windward Passage, and over the waters between Cuba tonight
through Fri night. Similar winds will develop offshore central
Honduras and south of Hispaniola tonight through the upcoming
weekend and into early next week. Mainly moderate to fresh winds
will prevail elsewhere, except diminishing to light to gentle in
the lee of Cuba late in the weekend. Northerly swell may impact
the Atlantic Passages this weekend.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface trough extends from 31N64W to the SE Bahamas. Scattered
moderate and isolated strong convection is within 120 nm east of
the trough. A weak cold front extends from 31N67W to 27N72W.
Gentle to moderate winds, and seas of 3-5 ft, are west of the
trough. A 1019 mb low is centered near 27.5N26W. Scattered
moderate convection is over the NE semicircle of the low. Fresh to
strong winds, and seas of 1-12 ft are within 210 nm NW of the
low. High pressure dominates the remainder of the discussion
waters with fresh to strong winds, and seas of 8-10 ft, prevailing.

For the forecast west of 55W, a weak cold front will move across
the northern waters through Sat. High pressure will build in the
wake of the front, bringing an increase in winds across much of
the waters south of 29N by the end of the week and into the
weekend. Rough seas will build across these waters as a result.
Winds and seas will start to decrease later in the weekend as the
high shifts eastward and weakens. Another cold front may move off
the SE United States coast by early Tue.

$$
AL
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700
AXNT20 KNHC 281008
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Fri Mar 28 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1000 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Guinea
Bissau near 12N16W and continues SW to near 04N20W. The ITCZ
extends from 04N20W to 02.5S43W. Scattered moderate to isolated
strong convection is occurring from the equator to 05N between
18W and 26W. Scattered moderate convection can be found from 00N
to 03N between 26W and 40W, and from 00N to 05N between 40W and 52W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

High pressure over the western Atlantic has a ridge extending
across Florida into the Gulf region while a surface trough is off
the west coast of the Yucatan Peninsula. The pressure gradient
between these features is supporting fresh to strong E to SE winds
across most of the basin, accompanied by moderate to rough seas.
An area of numerous showers and thunderstorms is noted over the NW
Gulf, mainly N of 25N and W of 95W. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms are also affecting the west-central Gulf. This
convective activity is associated with a vigorous mid to upper
level trough moving across the region.

For the forecast, as the above mentioned high pressure moves
eastward across the Atlantic, winds will diminish to moderate to
fresh speeds during the upcoming weekend. Seas will subside below
8 ft by Sat night. Fresh to occasionally strong winds are expected
near and to the NW of the Yucatan Peninsula during the evening
hours due to local effects. A cold front is forecast to enter the
NW Gulf by Mon, and extend from the Florida Big Bend to NE Mexico
by Mon night.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Recent satellite derived winds data provide observations of fresh
to strong winds over the south-central Caribbean, in the Gulf of
Venezuela, in the lee of Cuba, and in the Windward Passage. Moderate
to fresh winds prevail elsewhere. These winds are the result of
the pressure gradient between high pressure over the western
Atlantic and low pressure over northwestern Colombia. Moderate
seas dominate the area, with the exception of moderate to rough
seas off the coast of Colombia. Shallow moisture, embedded in the
trade wind flow is moving westward across the region, producing
isolated to scattered passing showers.

For the forecast, high pressure N of area combined with the
Colombian low will support pulsing winds near gale force at night
and early morning hours through Sun night into Mon morning. Fresh
to strong winds in the lee of Cuba, and in the Windward Passage
will persist through tonight. Similar wind speeds are expected in
the Gulf of Honduras and south of Hispaniola through the upcoming
weekend and into early next week. Moderate to fresh winds will
prevail elsewhere. NE swell will impact the Atlantic Passages this
weekend building seas to around 8 f.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from 31N57W to 25N70W. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms are active within 180 nm ahead of the front, and near
a pre-frontal trough that extends from 27N58W to 21N65W. Fresh to
strong NE winds and moderate to rough seas dominate the waters
west of the trough/front. The front and the pre-frontal trough
break up the subtropical ridge across the Atlantic, anchored by a
1029 mb high pressure cell off the Carolinas, and a 1035 mb high
pressure area localed SW of the Azores near 37N36W. This pattern
supports fresh to strong NE to E winds and rough seas across much
of the tropical and subtropical Atlantic between 20W and 60W.
Outside of this large region, NE to E winds are moderate to locally
fresh with prevailing moderate seas.

For the forecast west of 55W, the cold front will move SE across
the forecast waters through late Sat while weakening. Expect fresh
to strong NE winds and building seas of up to 12 ft in the wake
of the front. High pressure will follow the front. Winds and seas
will start to decrease later in the weekend as the high pressure
shifts eastward and weakens. Another cold front may move off the
SE United States coast by early Tue.

$$
GR
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459
AXNT20 KNHC 291011
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Sat Mar 29 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1000 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean through the coast of
Sierra Leone near 08N13W and continues southwestward to near
03N17W. The ITCZ extends from 03N17W to 01N30W to 03S44W along the
coast of Brazil. Scattered moderate convection is from the equator
to 06N between 10W and 20W, and from 00N to 03N between 20W and 50W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A mid to upper level low continues to move across the lower
Mississippi Valley supporting a squall line in the north central
Gulf, and additional thunderstorms over parts of Louisiana. A
surface ridge extends from a 1030 mb high pressure centered over
the western Atlantic near Bermuda across Florida into the Gulf
waters. The pressure gradient between the ridge and a trough over
Mexico is supporting a large area of fresh to strong E to SE winds
across most of the basin, including the Straits of Florida where
scatterometer data indicate winds of 25 to 30 kt. Recent buoy
observations and altimeter data confirm the presence of moderate
to rough seas within these winds. Seas of 7 to 10 ft are likely
occurring in the Straits of Florida.

For the forecast, the squall line will likely weaken through the
morning. The surface high pressure will drift slowly eastward across
the western Atlantic this weekend, allowing winds to diminish to
moderate to fresh speeds by this afternoon, with seas then subsiding
below 8 ft by late today. A cold front is forecast to enter the
NW Gulf on Mon, and extend from the Florida Big Bend to NE Mexico
by Tue morning before dissipating.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Recent satellite derived winds data provide observations of fresh
to strong winds over the south-central Caribbean, in the Gulf of
Venezuela, in the Windward Passage, in the lee of Cuba, and across
the Bay Islands in the Gulf of Honduras. Moderate to fresh winds
prevail elsewhere. These winds are the result of the pressure
gradient between high pressure located over the western Atlantic
near Bermuda and low pressure over northwestern Colombia. Moderate
seas dominate the area, with the exception of moderate to rough
seas off the coast of Colombia. Patches of low level moisture,
embedded in the trade wind flow, are moving westward across the
region, producing isolated to scattered passing showers.

For the forecast, the high pressure located near Bermuda will
drift slowly eastward through the weekend, and combine with the
Colombian low to support winds pulsing to near gale force at night
and during the early morning hours offshore of Colombia through
Mon morning. Fresh to strong winds in the lee of Cuba, and in the
Windward Passage will persist through this morning. Similar wind
speeds are expected in the Gulf of Honduras and south of Hispaniola
through early next week, and across the eastern Caribbean through
Mon morning. Large E swell will impact the Tropical Atlantic
waters and Caribbean Passages this weekend through Wed, building
seas 8 to 10 ft.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front enters the Atlantic forecast area near 31N48W, and
continues SW to 24N60W where it becomes a stationary front and
extends to near the Turks and Caicos Islands. A few clusters of
showers and thunderstorms are noted near the frontal boundary.
Recent scatterometer and altimeter data indicate a large area of
strong to near-gale force winds NW of the front, with seas up to
13 ft in the open waters outside of the Bahamas. High pressure of
1030 mb located near Bermuda follows the front. Farther east, a
1008 mb low pressure is spinning west of the Canary Islands near
27N23W. This low is producing some shower activity, strong to near
gale force winds and 8 to 10 ft seas mainly north of 24N between
21W and 25W based on altimeter data. Fresh trade winds and seas to
8 to 9 ft are noted in the tropical Atlantic west of 35W. Moderate
winds and seas are noted elsewhere.

For the forecast west of 55W, the high pressure located near the
Bermuda will drift slowly eastward through the weekend, as the
front moves SE and gradually weakens, and becomes E to W aligned
along about 22N-23N by late today. Expect fresh to strong NE to E
winds and seas up to 12 ft N of the front. Winds and seas will
start to decrease tonight through Sun as the high pressure shifts
eastward of Bermuda and weakens through the middle of next week.
Another cold front will move off the SE United States coast by
early Tue and weaken quickly across the far NW zones by early Wed.

$$
GR
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521
AXNT20 KNHC 301018
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Sun Mar 30 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1000 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean through the coast of
Guinea near 10N14W and continues southwestward to near 03N17W.
The ITCZ axis extends from 03N17W to 02S30W to 03S40W. Scattered
moderate convection is noted from the equator to 03N between 20W
and 32W, and near 02N11W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge extends westward from a 1031 mb high pressure
located east of Bermuda across Florida into the Gulf of Mexico
while a low pressure dominates NE Mexico. This pattern supports
moderate to fresh SE winds, with the exception of gentle to
moderate NE to E winds in the Bay of Campeche. In addition,
scatterometer and altimeter data indicate an area of fresh to
strong SE winds, with seas of 8 to 10 ft across the Straits of
Florida. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are noted
over the NE and north-central parts of the Gulf. Areas of fog are
noted over the NW Gulf, including the coastal waters of Texas and Louisiana.

For the forecast, a ridge will dominate the Gulf region early this
week producing a gentle to moderate return flow and slight to
moderate seas. A weak cold front is forecast to sink across the NW
and N central Gulf late on Mon, and extend from the Florida Big
Bend to central Texas by Tue morning before dissipating. High
pressure will then build westward across the Gulf Tue night through
Thu to support fresh to strong southerly winds across most of the
basin and moderate to rough seas.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A ridge extends north of the region, anchored by a 1031 mb high
pressure area located east of Bermuda. A relatively tight pressure
gradient persists between the ridge and the Colombian low. A recent scatterometer satellite pass confirmed that this pattern continues
to support strong to near-gale force winds off the coast of Colombia.
Recent observations also indicate fresh to strong E winds along the
Bay Islands in the Gulf of Honduras. Moderate to fresh E to SE prevail elsewhere. Seas are 8 to 10 ft within the strongest winds off Colombia,
and 5 to 8 ft elsewhere across the east and central Caribbean. Seas
of 3 to 5 ft are evident in the NW Caribbean, except in the Gulf
of Honduras where seas of 5 to 7 ft are observed. Patches of low level moisture, embedded in the trade wind flow, are moving westward across
the region, producing isolated to scattered passing showers.

For the forecast, high pressure N of the area combined with the
Colombian low will continue to support fresh to strong trade winds
and moderate to rough seas off the coast of Colombia through the
middle of the week. Similar wind speeds are also expected in the
Gulf of Honduras through Thu. Large E swell will continue to impact
the Tropical Atlantic waters and Caribbean Passages most of the
week, building seas 8 to 10 ft. Looking ahead, high pressure will
again build N of the Caribbean Sea toward the middle of the week
to bring a significantly strengthen in the trade wind flow and
building seas across most of the basin.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A weakening stationary front extends from 31N44W to 25N60W, where
it is dissipating toward the Turks and Caicos Islands. A few
showers and isolated thunderstorms are active northeast of the
Turks and Caicos Islands and east of the southern Bahamas to the
north of the dissipating front. A 1031 mb high pressure is
centered east of Bermuda near 32N57W. This pattern is supporting
fresh to strong E winds mainly south of 27N and west of 50W, with
8 to 11 ft seas in NE to E swell. Farther east, a 1008 mb low
pressure is centered NW of the Canary Islands near 31N21W. A band
of showers and thunderstorms is just N of the low center affecting
the waters from 30N to 33N between 17W and 28W. Part of this
convective activity reaches the Madeira Islands. Fresh to strong
winds and seas of 8 to 12 ft are also noted on the northern
semicircle of the low center. Moderate to fresh trades and
moderate to rough seas dominate the remainder of the tropical Atlantic.

For the forecast west of 55W, high pressure located E of Bermuda
will drift slowly eastward and weaken some through Mon. As a result,
winds and seas will diminish across the forecast region. However,
an area fresh to strong E winds will persist along the southern
periphery of the associated ridge affecting mainly the waters S of
25N through Mon night into Tue. At that time, a cold front will
move off the SE United States coast and weaken quickly across the
far NW zones by early Wed. High pressure will then build again
across the region Wed night through Thu night, bringing an
increase in winds and seas mainly across the south waters.

$$
GR
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778
AXNT20 KNHC 302324
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Mon Mar 31 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2315 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE...

The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic Ocean through the
coast of Liberia near 06N10W and continues west-southwestward to
near 04N16W, where it transitions to the ITCZ axis to the
Equator at 30W and west-southwestward to just inland the coast
of Brazil at 02S46W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection is seen within 180 nm north of the ITCZ between
28W and 32W. Scattered moderate convection is within 120 nm
north of the ITCZ between 32W and 38W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

The western periphery of Atlantic high pressure stretches
westward along 33N to across the southern United States. The
associated gradient is allowing for gentle to moderate southeast
return flow over the basin. Seas are in the 3 to 6 ft range.
Scattered moderate convection moving eastward is over most of
north-central and northeastern Florida. It is primarily being
driven by a mid-level shortwave trough as seen in water vapor
imagery. Similar activity moving eastward is over the western
Florida panhandle and over extreme southern Alabama and
southeastern Mississippi.

Patchy to areas of dense sea fog are expected to develop tonight
and into Mon morning, and possibly again on Mon night, along
some sections of the Texas and southwest Louisiana coasts
limiting visibility to 1 nm or less.

For the forecast, the aforementioned western Atlantic ridge
will dominate the Gulf weather pattern through Mon, producing a
gentle to moderate return flow and slight to moderate seas. A
weak cold front is forecast to sink into the NW and north-
central Gulf coastal waters late on Mon, and extend from the
Florida Big Bend to SE Texas by Tue morning before lifting north
and dissipating. High pressure will then build westward across
the Gulf Tue night through Fri to support fresh to strong
southeast to south winds across most of the basin and moderate
to rough seas.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The pressure gradient between the Bermuda High north of the area
and a 1008 mb Colombian Low is resulting in fresh to strong
trades over the central and northeastern sections of the basin.
Strong to near gale-force winds are just north of Colombia.
Trades elsewhere are in the gentle to moderate range as seen
in the most recent scatterometer satellite data passes. Seas are
7 to 10 ft north of Colombia and 4 to 7 ft elsewhere. No
significant deep convection is presently observed.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are weakening over some
areas of central and eastern Cuba.

For the forecast, high pressure centered east of Bermuda will
combine with the Colombian low to support fresh to strong trade
winds and moderate to rough seas off the coast of Colombia
through the middle of the week. Similar wind speeds are also
expected in the Gulf of Honduras through Wed. Large E swell will
continue to impact the Tropical Atlantic waters and Caribbean
Passages most of the week, maintaining seas of 8 to 10 ft.
Looking ahead, high pressure will again become re-established
north of the Caribbean Sea Wed afternoon through Fri night and
bring about a significant increase in winds and seas across most
of the basin.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A trough, remnants of a former stationary front, extends from
near 31N41W southwestward to 24N5W. No deep convection is noted
with this feature, however, scattered to broken low clouds with
possible isolated showers are north of 28N between 41W and 49W.
Similar clouds also with possible isolated showers are seen from
25N to 28N between 49W and 65W. These clouds are moving westward.
A trough in the eastern Atlantic extends from a 1010 mb low that
is north of the area near 33N22W southwestward to 23N29W. Fresh
winds are located north of 28N on both sides of the trough. Seas
are 8 to 10 ft in NE long-period swell north of 25N between 25W
and 33W. Elsewhere, a moderate pressure gradient between high
pressure of 1029 mb located just north of the area east of
Bermuda near 32N59W and relatively lower pressure in the ITCZ
region is producing fresh to strong trades south of 27N east of
72W as noted by the latest scatterometer satellite data passes.
Seas with these winds are 8 to 10 ft in long-period northeast to
east swell. Elsewhere, latest scatterometer satellite data
passes generally indicate gentle to moderate east to southeast
winds, except for gentle to moderate northeast to east winds
north of 27N between 50W and 64W, gentle to moderate east to
southeast winds north of 27N between 64W and 72W, and moderate
to fresh east to southeast winds west of 72W. Seas elsewhere are
7 to 9 ft in long-period east swell, except for lower seas of 4
to 7 ft north of 29N west of 55W.

Satellite imagery reveals scattered to numerous thunderstorms
over the waters offshore the Florida peninsula from 25N to 30N.
This activity is being aided by a mid-level shortwave trough
that is crossing the Florida peninsula from west to east.

For the forecast west of 55W, a ridge extends westward along 33N
from high pressure that is centered east of Bermuda. The high
will move slowly eastward and weaken some through Mon night. As
a result, winds and seas will diminish modestly across the
forecast area Mon afternoon through Mon night. A cold front will
move off the southeastern United States coast late Tue and
weaken quickly across the far northwest zones early Wed. High
pressure will then build southward again across the region Wed
night through Fri, bringing an increase in winds and seas, mainly
over the waters south of 24N.

$$
Aguirre
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634
AXNT20 KNHC 311017
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Mon Mar 31 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1000 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean through the coast of
Guinea-Bissau near 12N16W and continues west-southwestward to
near 04N16W. The ITCZ extends from 04N16W to 02S43W along the
coast of Brazil. Scattered moderate convection is ongoing S of 04N
and W of 14W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge extends from the western Atlantic through the
northern Gulf. A trough is setting up over the west coast of the
Yucatan Peninsula. Data from platforms in the northwest Gulf show
areas of fog reducing visibility to 2 to 4 miles. Advisories are
in effect for dense fog along the coast of Louisiana and the
Florida Panhandle. Fresh to strong winds are probably ongoing east
of the trough along the northern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula.
Gentle to moderate SE breezes are noted elsewhere. Seas are 2 to 4
ft over the eastern Gulf, and 4 to 6 ft over most of the western Gulf.

For the forecast, the ridge will dominate the Gulf region through
today, producing a gentle to moderate return flow and slight to
moderate seas. A weak cold front is forecast to sink into the NW
and N central Gulf coastal waters tonight, and extend from the
Florida Big Bend to SE Texas by Tue morning before lifting north
and dissipating. High pressure will then build westward across the
Gulf Tue night through Fri to support fresh to strong SE to S
winds across most of the basin and moderate to rough seas.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The pressure gradient between the Bermuda High north of the area
and a 1008 mb over northern Colombia is resulting in fresh to
strong trades over the central and northeastern sections of the
basin. Trades elsewhere are in the gentle to moderate range as
seen in earlier scatterometer satellite data passes. Seas are 8 to
9 ft north of Colombia, 3 to 6 ft in the far northwest Caribbean
and 4 to 8 ft elsewhere. No significant deep convection is
presently observed.

For the forecast, the high pressure east of Bermuda will combine
with the Colombian low to support fresh to strong trade winds and
moderate to rough seas off the coast of Colombia through the
middle of the week. Similar wind speeds are also expected in the
Gulf of Honduras through Wed. Large E swell will continue to
impact the Tropical Atlantic waters and Caribbean Passages most of
the week, maintaining rough seas. High pressure will relocate N
of the Caribbean Sea Wed afternoon through Fri night and bring a
significant increase in winds and seas across most of the basin.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Broad high pressure dominates the western Atlantic, anchored by
1028 mb high pressure just east of Bermuda. This pattern is
supporting moderate to fresh easterly winds and 7 to 9 ft seas
over open Atlantic waters west of 35W. Strong winds and seas to 9
ft are noted N of Hispaniola S of 21N between 71W-74W. Farther
east, 1008 mb low pressure is centered west of Madeira, with a
trough extending from the low to 23N20W. Fresh N winds and 8 ft
seas are noted west of the trough to 28W, and north of 27N.
Moderate to fresh N winds and 6 to 8 ft seas are noted elsewhere
east of 35W.

For the forecast west of 55W, the high pressure E of Bermuda
extends a ridge across the basin. The high will drift slowly
eastward and weaken through tonight. As a result, winds and seas
will diminish modestly across the forecast area through that
period. A cold front will move off the SE United States coast late
Tue and weaken quickly across the far NW zones early Wed. High
pressure will then build southward again across the region Wed
night through Fri, bringing an increase in winds and seas, mainly
across the waters S of 24N.

$$
ERA
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289
AXNT20 KNHC 011005
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Tue Apr 1 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1000 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE...

The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic Ocean through the
coast of Guinea near 11N15W and southwestward to near 03N20W,
where it transitions to the ITCZ to 03S30W to near coast of Brazil
at 04S37W. Scattered moderate convection is active from 01N to 03N
between 05W and 25W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A portion of a stationary front extends over the coast of Texas.
To the SW, the typical thermal trough is analyzed over the Yucatan
Peninsula. Elsewhere, the subtropical ridge extends from the
western Atlantic across the Florida Peninsula to the central Gulf.
This pattern is supporting moderate to fresh winds with moderate seas
along the northern western coasts of the Yucatan Peninsula, but
mostly gentle breezes and 2 to 4 ft seas elsewhere across the
Gulf. Platforms over the northwestern and north-central Gulf are
again indicating areas of sea fog, with visibility of 2 to 4 miles.

For the forecast, the surface trough prevails over the Yucatan Peninsula
with fresh SE to NE winds over the Bay of Campeche. Areas of
dense fog has developed in the NW Gulf, with visibilities below 1
sm expected at times through the morning hours. A similar pattern
is expected tonight. Elsewhere, fresh to strong SE to S winds will
develop tonight across much of the basin west of 85W, as the
pressure gradient tightens in the area. Building rough seas are
expected in this region Wed morning through late week. East of
85W, moderate SE winds tonight will strengthen to fresh to strong
speeds Wed into Thu, including through the Florida Straits.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The pressure gradient between strong high pressure north of the
area and a 1008 mb over northern Colombia is supporting fresh to
strong trade winds over the central Caribbean coast and in the
Gulf of Venezuela. Moderate to fresh trades are elsewhere east of
80W. Moderate to fresh winds are found over the western
Caribbean. Seas of 6-8 ft prevail east of 80W, with seas in the
4-6 ft range west of 80W.

For the forecast, fresh to strong winds and rough seas will pulse
tonight offshore of Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela through
Tue. Winds are expected to strengthen to near-gale force Wed
through the weekend as the pressure gradient strengthens between
the Colombian low and high pressure building over the western
Atlantic. Very rough seas are expected with these winds. Fresh to
strong E to SE winds will pulse in the Gulf of Honduras today,
then winds will increase to near-gale force speeds and rough seas
develop for the second half of the week. Large E swell will
continue to impact the Tropical Atlantic waters and Caribbean
Passages most of the week, maintaining rough seas. Elsewhere,
moderate to fresh trade winds, with strong pulses, are expected
across the remainder of the Caribbean through Wed, then widespread
fresh to strong winds and rough seas dominate the basin Thu into
the upcoming weekend.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Thunderstorms associated with a mid level short wave trough moving
across the southeastern United States are regenerating over the
Gulf Stream, mainly between 70W-77W. Farther east, broad high
pressure dominates the Atlantic waters, anchored by a strong 1032
mb high center that is located over the north- central Atlantic
near 36N45W. The associated gradient supports moderate to fresh
easterly winds and 7 to 10 ft seas over open Atlantic waters west
of 42W. A cold front is moving through the central Atlantic into
the eastern Atlantic is just reaching 30N between 33W and 43W. No
significant weather is occurring with this front. Winds are 20 kt
or less near the front, however, rough seas in long-period NW
swell follow the front. In the eastern part of the area, gentle to
moderate winds, and seas of 4 to 7 ft are north of 20N and east
of about 40W. Moderate to fresh winds along with seas of 6 to 7 ft
are present elsewhere.

For the forecast west of 55W, fresh to strong S winds and rough
seas will continue through this morning north of 30N well off the
coast of Florida to 70W, as the pressure gradient strengthens
between high pressure in the central Atlantic and low pressure
moving through the eastern United States. A cold front associated
with the low pressure system will push offshore of the
southeastern U.S. today, and winds behind the front will turn to
the W and weaken in its wake. Elsewhere, high pressure over the
central Atlantic will drift slowly eastward today, and fresh to
strong trade winds will pulse along the periphery of the ridge,
mainly south of 25N. Rough seas will accompany these winds. High
pressure will develop over the western Atlantic by Wed. A
tightening pressure gradient between the high and the Colombian
low will support fresh to strong E to SE winds and rough seas
across the waters south of 27N, including through the Atlantic
Passages into the Caribbean.

$$
ERA
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