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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0270

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Thu Mar 27 18:41:50 2025
    ACUS11 KWNS 271841
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 271841=20
    TXZ000-272115-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0270
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0141 PM CDT Thu Mar 27 2025

    Areas affected...far southern Texas / Lower Rio Grande Valley

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 271841Z - 272115Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

    SUMMARY...A couple strong gusts cannot be ruled out eventually over
    parts of the Lower Rio Grande Valley.

    DISCUSSION...A large, heavy-rain producing convective system
    continues to slowly propagate eastward, with newer development
    upstream into Mexico (see WPC MPD #0088). Midday soundings reveal
    deep, moist profiles with poor lapse rates and a high LFC. While the
    18Z BRO sounding shows winds veering with height and substantial 0-1
    SRH, the combination of poor low-level lapse rates and lack of any
    baroclinic boundary (outflow) thus far suggests little brief tornado
    risk. In addition, overall wind potential remains low as the deep
    moist profiles mitigate downdraft/evaporation potential.=20

    Although radar indicates little outflow at this time, a few strong
    gusts may eventually be generated as heating persist. For any
    brief/QLCS type tornado potential, this appears highly conditional
    on a substantial outflow boundary first materializing.

    ..Jewell/Smith.. 03/27/2025

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!4LhXdR4a44HaFBfV10p1I-aW9MZtQ2Ezc4uF0gswj8IvjJEkO7Y5fV5hoaybZTFDyvD7fmCAg= vDVqR_5JtlncIWtEtc$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...BRO...

    LAT...LON 26089895 26349865 26589849 26679815 26889783 27099759
    26929732 26389710 25989705 25829741 25879797 25959850
    26089895=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH


    =3D =3D =3D
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