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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0272

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Thu Mar 27 23:22:29 2025
    ACUS11 KWNS 272321
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 272321=20
    MOZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-280115-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0272
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0621 PM CDT Thu Mar 27 2025

    Areas affected...northeastern Kansas and adjacent southern Nebraska/northwestern Missouri

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 272321Z - 280115Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are undergoing a period of intensification
    which may persist at least through 8-9 PM CDT. An upscale growing
    cluster accompanied by increasing potential for strong surface gusts
    is possible, in addition to a continuing risk for severe hail.

    DISCUSSION...Embedded within 20-30 kt west-southwesterly deep-layer
    mean flow, initially high-based thunderstorm development is
    undergoing intensification as it acquires more moist and potentially
    unstable southeasterly inflow near/northwest through north of Salina
    KS. Mid/upper 50s F surface dew points, along and north of the
    Interstate 70 corridor into the Nebraska state border vicinity of
    northeastern Kansas, appear to be contributing to mixed-layer CAPE
    in excess of 2000 J/kg.=20=20

    Although objective analysis and forecast soundings indicate the
    continuing presence of mid-level inhibition, forcing along
    convective outflow may maintain and perhaps support a further
    increase in convection through the 00-02Z time frame. Coupled with strengthening low-level warm advection, aided by an intensifying
    low-level jet (30-50 kt around 850 mb), an upscale growing cluster
    with increasing potential to produce strong surface gusts might not
    be entirely out of the question into this evening.

    ..Kerr/Hart.. 03/27/2025

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!6CHhHBYG-twCHxNl7MwJK2rP9djiOURh7nspN1taAOK1juKvbZTTtkSV5AH879UlIIGuhQV7R= yiedTuvIUHTIPhAAy0$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT...

    LAT...LON 39589793 39969709 40009602 39569456 38699482 38629633
    38609750 38859782 39589793=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


    =3D =3D =3D
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